Guess this should be 8/47 * 4/46 because for the first card it doesn't matter which of them you catch.
Originally Posted by BluffMeAllIn
4/47 * 4/46 = ~0.75% chance to catch your 2 cards
Yeah, but we don't care about very detailed odds so while playing and guessing our equity on the fly just keep it simple...12 outs is 25 %....16 outs is 33 % etc
Originally Posted by tootsy toot
ok i think i get you......
so if i have 2358x, personally i'd be happy hitting any 4, 6 or 7 so by that method you've shown my odds would roughly be 12/47 = 25.5% of hitting the 8 low and lets say you're up against someone who stands on J lows quite often you could add in 9's,T's also so that would be 20/47=44.4% chance of hitting a 10 low or better?
while this is true, personally I don't think that way because there's also a lot of broadway cards in those folded hands.
Even more we might assume people still in the hand and drawing 1 , 2 or even 3 cards, most of the time throw away broadways.
Exception here is ofc people getting dealt for example low pairs like 66, trowing away a 6 which could be one of your outs.
But again, I keep it pretty simple...if I can use 3 values, so 12 cards to make a 9-low I keep it at at least 25 %.
Besides that I always keep in mind, against people also drawing, my chances are much better because chances are they draw a pair or a bad broadway card.
Originally Posted by hffjd2000
Math is correct but then again you might not getting the correct outs.
Other outs might already folded or being held by you opponents.
Now, as I said I play this regularly, but only the $2,2 tournaments at stars.
Because the player pool is small you see the same players again and again.
Therefor, besides some simple equity calculations, it's very important to make player notes.
I'm shooting myself in my feet here I guess, but I recommend the following:
Always, Always if a hand goes to showdown and one or more people muck, look back at the hand to find out what they mucked.
It'll give you an idea what hands people are playing, raising with, calling with, checking with etc....
Soon you'll find out which players raise and often draw 2 when called....you'll find out who will Always call your raises and drawing 2....you'll find out which players will Always raise when strong and just check or call when having mediocre hands.
Some players just check or minraise with a 10-low and raise really big with very strong hands.
Identifying these players and their behaviour and making notes about this, can make or save you a lot of chips.
Find out who's capable of snowing ...there's not many, but surprise,surprise....I do it sometimes.
Slowplaying predraw monsters often works surprisingly well, while playing them hard predraw often scares everyone away.
Take special care of players you've never seen before....pretty often new players have no clue at all, thinking their boat or flush is the nuts, so they're basically giving you free chips.
Keep in mind flushes and straights count, so for example , drawing to a 7 or8-lo while having 2345 of 1 suit is less profitable than drawing with 2346 with different suits.
Now, this is just some general stuff, which might or might not help, but with a little common sense you should be able to play these tournaments profitable.
Most important imo is taking detailed notes of the regulars....
Most of them most Always play their hands the same way, so if you recognize their behaviour you really gain an edge.
About calculators....here's some links....(hope it's allowed)