18 outer

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poopnuggette

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I am questioning the power of the open ended straight and flush draw. In the last 3 tournaments i played i got 3 of these and i didn't hit one! The first time i actually had an open ended straight flush draw. I had 4,5s and the flop was 3,6,2s right then and there i bet pot and was called then on 4th street i bet pot again and on 5th i obviouslydidnt hit the straight or the flop was that the wrong play? I was pretty sure he didnt have the straight or the flush draw also he ended up with two pair and one spade so it was actually a 17 outer. The other two times were a little different situation. I got my draw on fourth street bet pot and didnt hit both times is that the wrong play?
 
S

scragbag

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Ummm....All-in? You are a monster favourite against even a set. I think you may need to edit your post though?
 
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pokerjes

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54 on 632 is a straight

umm no i think he said it was an open end straight/flush draw which reads a 6s, 3s and 2spades hit the board for the two draws

but imo if it was on fulltilt not supprising
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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Maybe I'm missing something, but shouldn't an OESFD be 15 outs, not 18? Nine for the flush and another six for the straight. That's a 31.9% chance to hit on the turn, or 54.1% for the turn and river combined.

It's still pretty much a garden variety coin flip if you're against an overpair, and you're a dog on any single street.
 
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AceHand

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Yup, 15 outs, and 32.6% to hit on the river.
Good Luck,
Tom
 
left52side

left52side

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Just 5 minutes ago i had 2 opened ended straight draws,back to back,then two hands later had a flush draw.
Mine never came either.
But when they do it's great.
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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Just 5 minutes ago i had 2 opened ended straight draws,back to back,then two hands later had a flush draw.
Mine never came either.
But when they do it's great.

Thing is, it doesn't matter if you had them one hand apart or one hundred hands apart - the previous hand doesn't affect the outcome of the current hand.

On the flop (assuming you had the draw on the flop) you would've been around 30% to make your hand by the river in each case. You'll miss seven times out of ten.

Missing three out of three is, therefore, about the most unsurprising thing in the world.
 
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WurlyQ

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As has been said before, just think of the probability of hitting as about 1/3 on the flop and turn and 1/2 combined.

The chance of missing 3 times if you saw it down to the river all 3 times is about 1/8.

Also, you generally don't want to be betting a lot with draws. You generally want to be seeing free/cheap cards when you are behind.
 
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