Bl8nds 100 200 200 bb ante
Villain utg+1 raises to 600 with 27k effective stack
Hero cutoff reraises to 2200 with 43000 effective stack
AsAc
Villain calls
Pot 4900
Flop 3s9d7s
Villain checks
Hero bets 1500
Villain calls
Pot7900
Turn Ah
Villain checks
Hero bets 3000
Villain calls
Pot 13900
River 5s
Villain jams last 19k
Hero??
As played, in that ****ing Shit-Show – call!
Now, on a more helpful note – we have something going on here that I routinely see in Bracelet events; bet sizes are way too small. You put a
wsop logo and bracelet up top and everyone turns into notorious NIT’s.
I’m all for chip preservation in super deep structures like WSOP events – but it is routinely taken to the extreme. We have greater than 125BB here – we have to go for value with our big
hands, and with such a deep stack, that comes with virtually no risk.
Analysis:
Pre
In this event, I love the big 3-bet size, we could even go bigger for value here against a vast-majority of the field. Now, I wasn’t there, and I don’t know the villain, and I think $2,200 is good. If he’s a NIT, we could simply go $1,500 (I know, after my bigger sizes speech right?). Point is, villain specific, and at a default I simply like 3x but am completely fine with 3.5x here in almost all cases.
Flop
Where does the $1,500 come from? I can get behind strategies that use .25 pot C-bets, or .33, but we’re not really C-betting here, we’re value betting. Therefore our default size here should be .5 pot, I’m not even sure where .3 comes from – if he folds for the extra .2 – fine, we prefer folds in tournaments anyway.
I’d also like to propose an SPR related size structure. We have about a 5.5 SPR, which is perfect for Pot/.5/.5 sizes. With Pot/.5/.5 we’ll get the effective stack, in a 5-ish SPR pot, in the middle without issue.
I like a pot sized wager here - $5K chips scare the fish out of the water, so I’d do something a little more innocuous, $4,600-ish, don’t want too many black chips as more chips scare them as well.
Turn
Again, I feel it’s too small, although better. Since we’ve basically just spiked the nuts, I can see some logic to this sizing but still vastly prefer $4K as played.
If we had gone $4,600 otf, we’d go $7K here with the sole intention of giving him a .5 pot shove on the river.
River
And this is a call as played. Sure, we could be beat – but it’s the Goddamn Colossus.
With Pot/.5/.5 sizes, we now have $28K in the middle and villain has $13K behind – we
gladly call if he shoves.
Working a gigantic range for villain, that honestly is probably not big enough (we are in the Colossus).
These are the hands I think he could feasibly get to river with:
QQ,99,77,55,AJs+,98s,87s,KsQs,KsJs,AsTs,KsTs,As9s,Ks9s,Qs9s,Js9s,Ts9s,As8s,Ks8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,AQo+ (and I know the impossible AsX combo’s are here – don’t worry, Equilab does the math)
Against our AsAc (and remember, we have the huge As here) he has 24%
equity, giving us 76%. Attached are two spreadsheets evaluating all-in river shoves by villain, both are extremely profitable, but as you can see, structuring our bet sizes a little better makes our decisions exponentially easier and our value exponentially higher.
