What would you do?

On the final table of the Progressive Bounty $20 buy-in with a $19,900 prize pool it and with eight players left I had 488191 chips (in last). I'm in the big blind the blinds are 40000/80000 and 10000 ante - UTG Folds, middle position raises to 174,000, button decides to re-raise to 468800 chips. Now, I have a decision to make with that re-raise that puts me all in I'm thinking at this point. I'm way behind in the hand if the button just called rather than re-raise I would have re-raised all in and I'm thinking I'm grossly behind so I decide to fold the hand. The middle position, the original raiser, decides to push all in for his last 2.1 million chips- then the button who made the re-raise decides to instant call. MP has pocket Queens the button shows pocket aces. (see the replayer)

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524DcWB2M


I would like to know, did I make the right decision by folding? Even though I did get a pay jump should I just have taken a chance and went for it? What would you do?

I would do same...

I would say it's a great fold. Very tough mentally to do it, but obviously you were right, even if no pocket queens or aces after showing up

You are at 6 big blinds to start the hand and after posting you are only at 5 behind. I think you have to call here. I agree with you that you are most likely behind here but there are many scenarios which you are behind but are not terrible such as you could be going against two pocket pairs JJ and lower in which case you are behind in the sense you are not going to win over half the time but you have more than a third chance to triple up.

I just think that at that low of a chip stack with a big suited ace there you are just going to have to go with it and pray that you hit. I would expect to run into AK and the AA that you did a good deal of the time but you don't have the luxury of waiting too much longer. Gotta go there and hope.

Woooow. You don't see many hands played properly that also get posted for review. Usually this one only goes up when we hero call and lose the hand - i know you would've flopped the flush, but don't be results oriented. Kudos to you here for making what is not only a good fold but a correct one as well.

Plug this into any program such as icmizer and you will see how tight you actually have to be to call off the action in front of you. Even on 6bb this may be a apot where you are only supposed to call off with KK or AA - if AQ is in our range to call off it will certainly be suited and the very bottom of our call off. I would have to run it to be certain - anyhow, the point is with the raise in front and then the reraise behind - our opponents may risk one of them going broke and therefor we can secure a pay jump if/when that occurs. Icm implications are rough at the final table for sure. I believe this to be a good disciplined fold.

Very tough choice. AQ is a good chance to triple up if MP folds and Button has TT. But even tripling up leaves you in last place in chips.

I think you were right to fold, as one of them probably has AK or QQ+ which has you dominated. The fact that both had monsters proves you made the right choice, no matter how the cards played out.

I doubt if I could have gotten this far, and if I did, I doubt if I could have folded AQs.

It is a very difficult decision, but you did well. It’s a good hand but you have to be careful with it. I had similar situations and mostly lost all the chips. As for me, it was a fantastic decision.

I Felt Your Pain. Imho you made the correct call and great Hand Read.

:congrats:

I would of folded as well sensing a re-raise from the button already gives me ideas that my hand was behind. I wonder how you did through the rest of the progressive knockout final table?

I think, this is a call. Not only do you have 17% of your stack invested already, its also a great situation for you, that BTN has 3-bet, because this gives you fold equity against MP, which you would otherwise not have with a 6BB stack. When MP fold, you are getting around 2:1 on your remaining chips, which mean, you then only need around 33% equity to break even on chip EV. You will also be against a 3-betting range, which is likely pretty wide, since BTN is one of the chip leaders and likely to be bullying MP with his stack.

The only argument for folding is, that MP might bust in this hand, which will then give you a payjump. But while this did in fact happen, its not a common outcome. A lot of the time MP fold preflop, fold on the flop or win the hand. And then you are left with just 5BB and still very likely to go out next. So while you would in fact have gotten your chips in bad this time (but sucked out), I do think, this is a call.

Jon Poker said:

Woooow. You don't see many hands played properly that also get posted for review. Usually this one only goes up when we hero call and lose the hand - i know you would've flopped the flush, but don't be results oriented. Kudos to you here for making what is not only a good fold but a correct one as well.

Plug this into any program such as icmizer and you will see how tight you actually have to be to call off the action in front of you. Even on 6bb this may be a apot where you are only supposed to call off with KK or AA - if AQ is in our range to call off it will certainly be suited and the very bottom of our call off. I would have to run it to be certain - anyhow, the point is with the raise in front and then the reraise behind - our opponents may risk one of them going broke and therefor we can secure a pay jump if/when that occurs. Icm implications are rough at the final table for sure. I believe this to be a good disciplined fold.

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I agree with this analysis. Even though you're left with 5bb, I'd rather be the one pushing than reacting. That three bet, combined with the fact that these two middling stacks are willing to mix it up should be enough to make this an easy fold. You're almost certainly never ahead here as they seem to be unconcerned with the likelihood that you're the next one to (likely) be eliminated.

fundiver199 said:

The only argument for folding is, that MP might bust in this hand, which will then give you a payjump. But while this did in fact happen, its not a common outcome. A lot of the time MP fold preflop, fold on the flop or win the hand. And then you are left with just 5BB and still very likely to go out next. So while you would in fact have gotten your chips in bad this time (but sucked out), I do think, this is a call.

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See what I said above about these two middling stacks willing to mix it up. While your analysis is well thought out and solid, I'm going with folding here and probably doing so fairly comfortably. Yes, while you're left with 5BB and likely to go out next, you're reacting to the action rather than initiating it.

Shumkoolie said:

Even though you're left with 5bb, I'd rather be the one pushing than reacting.

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If Hero had 10BB or more I would agree, but with a 5BB stack Hero has no fold equity. Hero especially dont have fold equity in a bounty builder, where the last player to act can profitably call a jam from Hero with any two cards, because he can score Heros bounty. So Hero will need to win a flip anyway to chip up, and then the only advantage of folding here is the possibility of an immediate payjump.

As for ranges I will still maintain, that BTNs range should be pretty wide, because he is putting a lot of ICM-pressure on MP. BTN is not a large stack, as I originally wrote, but he has not committed himself to calling off a 4-bet jam, and because Hero is so short, MP has a lot of incentive to fold to the 3-bet. Here it also matter, that it is a bounty builder, because BTN can score MPs bounty, but MP can not score BTNs bounty.

MP should be opening fairly tight, but he is not the most important player here, since he did just open, and had MP been the only player involved, then Hero would have an extremely easy jam.

I will pay . Without risk you can not win and here in poker you should believe in luck and I think that with AA you are losing 80% in such cases and is better to have AQ .

I'm sorry, but once I'm dealt AQ on this hand (with that ridiculously low chip stack) I know I am going allin no matter what. You just have to!

here was the reslut

HungryLyan said:

I would of folded as well sensing a re-raise from the button already gives me ideas that my hand was behind. I wonder how you did through the rest of the progressive knockout final table?

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Ty for the reply I wound up finishing in 7th place for 200$

Fold is alright. it is final table and in this situation, re-raiser must have just huge monsters. if you go all in this is ICM suicide, because you can make more money if open raiser call him and lost. And that is what you want. Make most money as you can and make at least risk

You did the right thing. I would fold. I went all in, I have a full house, the opponent also has a full house, but higher. I lost.

I would call. Because you are too short. If you had 10 bb at least, then you could fold.