Top Pair vs gut-shot Royal Flush Draw, inevitable end, donkey play or bad beat?

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bumerangue

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[replay hand_id=944739 type=ps title_id=2 showControls=1 themePath=table_PS_560x386.jpg lang=en gameEntity=0 hash=920E718928]

What would you say about this hand? Hot 0,55 (spoiler at the end of the post).

Blinds 100/200

Seat 1: Villan (8120 in chips, $0.49 bounty)
Seat 2: Hero (12167 in chips, $0.43 bounty)
Seat 3: BB (8269 in chips, $0.25 bounty)
Seat 4: SB (13166 in chips, $0.37 bounty)
Seat 5: XXX (5665 in chips, $0.25 bounty)
Seat 6: XXX (7096 in chips, $0.37 bounty)
Seat 7: XXX (10042 in chips, $0.37 bounty)
Seat 8: XXX (10840 in chips, $0.25 bounty)
Seat 9: XXX (4099 in chips, $0.25 bounty)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero Ts As
XXX: folds
XXX: folds
XXX: folds
XXX: folds
XXX: folds
Villain: calls 200
Hero: raises 600 to 800
SB: folds
BB: folds
Villain: calls 600
*** FLOP *** Js Jh Ah
Villain: checks
Hero: bets 1454 (67% pot)
Villain: calls 1454
*** TURN *** Js Jh Ah <font color='black'>8♣</font>
Villain: checks
Hero: bets 2539 (50%pot)
Villain: calls 2539



SPOILER:
*** RIVER *** Js Jh Ah 8c <font color='red'>Q♥</font>
Villain: bets 3297 and is all-in
Hero: calls 3297
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Clans1975: shows Kh Th (a Royal Flush)
bumerangueVV: shows Ts As (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
Clans1975 collected 16750 from pot




Maybe I should had shoved on the flop, but with a royal flush draw I guess the villain would call it anyway...
 
Last edited:
mcgregor_415

mcgregor_415

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Royal flush chances are one in a .... So you play the best possible way. Just bad luck. He wouldn't call an all in just with gut shot after an A on the board and big aggression by you. I also think that with such cards your flop bet is very big. I would put a max of 1/3 pot bet.
 
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trent32la

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Check flop, check turn. This is a board we want to be pot controlling on as V isn't going to call with many worse hands. As said above, if you are going to bet this flop, 2/3rd pot is wayyy too big and something like 25-33% pot would be optimal.
 
Gabinho12345

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Why would you shove 4x pot on that flop? You should check the flop but if you bet flop you definitely have to check turn. On the river you can't beat any hand your opponent would play that way.
 
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bumerangue

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I was just thinking about the odds he was getting with my bet, maybe, with a draw, i thought he might just fold with that 2/3 bet on the flop. A 1/2, 1/3 pot bet would give him just the pot odds that he wanted. On the river I did put him on a maybe royal flush, he would play that way with KTs, since the didnt reraised on the flop, but its that kind of "1 in 1 million" hand.

Thanks for you opinion
 
PokerNuts01

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What would you say about this hand? Hot 0,55 (spoiler at the end of the post).

Blinds 100/200

Seat 1: Villan (8120 in chips, $0.49 bounty)
Seat 2: Hero (12167 in chips, $0.43 bounty)
Seat 3: BB (8269 in chips, $0.25 bounty)
Seat 4: SB (13166 in chips, $0.37 bounty)
Seat 5: XXX (5665 in chips, $0.25 bounty)
Seat 6: XXX (7096 in chips, $0.37 bounty)
Seat 7: XXX (10042 in chips, $0.37 bounty)
Seat 8: XXX (10840 in chips, $0.25 bounty)
Seat 9: XXX (4099 in chips, $0.25 bounty)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Hot 0.55 with a bounty?
 
PHX

PHX

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Just a hard luck bad river. I get the turn bet to build pot to try to get bounty if your flush hits. I think if you check the turn you can make the river fold easier.

Some players depending on stats and your feel on how they play you can safely determine with that flop call that you are either behind or only beating a flush draw. For these type I would definitely consider pot controlling turn with a check. Other players you just know they are active and chasers in which case I consider jamming turn loads of worst As and all kind of draws might call.
 
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Madsaac

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I think a small flop bet is okay, a number of worse aces and some FDs are calling and maybe check the turn.

You'd think he'd c/r the nut FD on the flop so he has worse aces there so you could maybe another 30% turn bet is okay.
 
naruto_miu

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I wouldn't 4xOpen for starters. I wouldn't bet that flop for as much as you did. Than on turn, I sure am not betting once called, I mean really. Think like this, what limp calls a 4xOpen, and than CC on flop, on a JJA board that A10 beats? I mean It was the only hand that you beat besides Q10hh/KQhh/K10hh. Other than those 3 hands, nothing else, thus no need to keep on throwing good money after bad
 
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trent32la

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naruto - Given there is a limper in front and we are 40bb effective deep, iso-raising 4x preflop here is completely fine. It's very unlikely the limper is limp/folding and we want to play a bigger pot in position with our hand against his weak range.
 
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Madsaac

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I wouldn't 4xOpen for starters. I wouldn't bet that flop for as much as you did. Than on turn, I sure am not betting once called, I mean really. Think like this, what limp calls a 4xOpen, and than CC on flop, on a JJA board that A10 beats? I mean It was the only hand that you beat besides Q10hh/KQhh/K10hh. Other than those 3 hands, nothing else, thus no need to keep on throwing good money after bad

What about all the aces, gut shots, SDs, BDFDs?
 
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bumerangue

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I was putting him on a pocket pair, small ace or even gut-shot, just gave him a flush in case he had K and at least a 9 ou T suited, but it would be a royal flush and bang, it really was
 
naruto_miu

naruto_miu

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What about all the aces, gut shots, SDs, BDFDs?


Take all those hands that you stated, what do you do when the turn ends up completing all those cards that you stated? What If on the turn It completes the flush? The Straight? What do you do than? Do you keep on betting? Assume for a moment that this player didn't have any of those hands, but ended up floating OP for the soul purpose of attempting to bluff, what do you do when those cards hit on turn? It wont be easy to call when put to a real decision, thus we really don't need to bloat the pot up anymore than It Is, correct? It Isn't like as If we hold the stone cold nutz or a Jack even, thus with 2 pair 10 kicker on that board, It's really Imaginative (If you will), to assume that "Your A10" Is the best, and that you're either getting value with It, or protecting It.

Again, this Is just me, and doesn't mean It's correct at all, but I'd like to be In a better shape than that to be willing to GII (IMO)
 
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bumerangue

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Take all those hands that you stated, what do you do when the turn ends up completing all those cards that you stated? What If on the turn It completes the flush? The Straight? What do you do than? Do you keep on betting? Assume for a moment that this player didn't have any of those hands, but ended up floating OP for the soul purpose of attempting to bluff, what do you do when those cards hit on turn? It wont be easy to call when put to a real decision, thus we really don't need to bloat the pot up anymore than It Is, correct? It Isn't like as If we hold the stone cold nutz or a Jack even, thus with 2 pair 10 kicker on that board, It's really Imaginative (If you will), to assume that "Your A10" Is the best, and that you're either getting value with It, or protecting It.

Again, this Is just me, and doesn't mean It's correct at all, but I'd like to be In a better shape than that to be willing to GII (IMO)

Thanks for your opinion! Just like I said, I was putting him on weaker hand at that point, he was playing loose, and I was dominating him! But as always, playing and learning, Ill play different next time and analyse the EV
 
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C3H6S

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bad luck and ..maybe u play wrong....bet bet mmm with a JJ and your opponent bet maybe say i have AJ..bad luck with royal flush
 
mbrenneman0

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this is the definition of results oriented thinking. do not be results oriented. his sctual hand does not matter in the long term. what does matter in the long term is his whole range of hands he could have here.

also, read the sticky at the top of the forum that says in big letters "read before posting" dont put his hand in the title of the thread.
 
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