Satellite 50+10€ Live - AKs 80blinds

J

Jiraika

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9 handed
8000 chips
40 player 20min blind level

Blind 50-100

Utg +1 limp 100 (8k stack)
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Limp 100 (8k stack)
Fold
Hero sb raise 500 (8.2k)
Bb fold
Utg+1 3bet 2,5k
Fold
Hero ?

I don't have info on the player
 
J

Jiraika

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Isn't that the Ny back raise?
I find it hard for him to 4bet me that big without a premium I don't know
 
SaintNick1968

SaintNick1968

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Online I would definitely say this is a very easy jam, people often do this in higher buyin tournies just to be tricky. This play can be very strong live, and some might only do it with QQ+. However, I think that you still have to jam and face the cooler if it happens. You block aces and kings, and there is always the possibility that they did it for no reason. Calling seems bad OOP and folding a hand as strong as this is way too nitty without a good read.

I can feel your pain though 😉
 
Andrey Smirnov

Andrey Smirnov

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Fold. 80bbs not that stack to shove with AK( even we have notes about his range)
 
PHX

PHX

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Easy fold, almost never ahead here and you got plenty blinds to wait for a better spot.
 
mcgregor_415

mcgregor_415

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What is the payment structure, how many positions win the ticket?
Fold is the best play here if you don't have observation on the player. Probably he has a high pair JJ+
 
J

Jiraika

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7 ticket, it is like a turbo/hyper tournament.
 
J

JPainTrainSicko

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This seems like a spot where you will see JJ+ at best from Villain. Pretty much this comes down to do what you want to, flip and try to get lucky for your tournament or fold.

Breaking the hand down tho I do like the raise to 500. Once villian puts in 2500 tho let's break down the options. First folding, you still have a super healthy 75bb and plenty of play. This allows you to take better spots later on. Being a faster pace tournament does affect this option but I don't think it's off the table and may even be the best option.

Next call, this would leave you with 55bb and you'd be seeing a flop oop with a pot size of 5200 (52bb). While it's not terrible as far as leaving you short stacked it has a lot of disadvantages. First you're oop against the aggressor. Also your stack to pot ratio is 1-1 making it hard to bet anything less than all in without being committed to it. Based on that you're hoping for an A or a K to land which is about 30% of the time and even then you may be way behind. It hits two pair or better about 4%, a gut shot about 10% and ace high the majority of the time at 66%. Based on that calling 2000 of our remaining 7500 (26% of our stack) is borderline assuming we win when we hit, which we already discussed may be an incorrect assumption.

Final option, raise... Raising anything less than all-in is definitely a mistake. Say we raise to minimum 5k, this is more than half our stack and from a sound math based approach a mistake (common acceptable raise is no more than 1/3 stack, otherwise all-in is the advised move). In this spot without specific knowledge of villian we have established we are at best flipping. So we come back to weather or not you want to flip in this tournament.

For me I'd probably fold sigh and watch this player to see if I can get anymore info on what his range is to make this type of move. If you feel you have an edge over the field you can afford a bit more to make these tighter folds in marginal at best spots and go after lower variance spots later. Also it's a sattelite, meaning we don't necessarily have to accumulate all the chips and go for the win, rather we just need to have enough chips to survive. On the contrary if you're out matched and against tough players taking some risks becomes a better option.

Might have rambled a bit, but I hope you got something out of it and it helps you make a more informed decision later on. Good luck and keep at it!
 
J

Jiraika

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Thanks you guys for answers!
It helps me out
 
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chng1t

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Anyone who limps is not a winning player. So come over the top with AKs. Yes, sometimes you will see AA, but it will happen rarely, I am sure they are 3betting a lot of big Ax hands, and middle to hight pairs. your equity vs villains range is very good, so go All in. GL
 
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