River bet sizing to fold out better kickers? - ATs vs AJo

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neilv93

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I posted about another ATs hand I came across a while ago but remembered this situation from before that and wondered if there's anything I should have done differently on the river.

On an 8-handed table at 600/1200 (200), a player limped from relatively early and then villain in the CO bumped it up to 2800. I was in the SB with Ah Th and decided to call, for two reasons: 1. The EP limper is fairly straightforward in the sense that he limps all 'floppable' hands such as suited connectors, Broadway etc and raises his big hands so I wasn't worried about him, and 2. The raiser isn't someone I deem to be 'that' good. There was now 9,600 in the pot after my call and I had about 25,000 left while villain had just shy of 30,000.

The flop was A63 rainbow, one heart, and I check called the C-bet of 3,700. The turn was another brick and this time villain checked back.

Now, I had seen him do this on several cases when he had top pair without top kicker, so I figured there's a strong chance he either missed the flop and just C-bet as usual and is now giving up, has a hand like JJ-KK that he wants a showdown with, or his range is along the A8-AQ range as he'd likely still barrel with the king.

With that said, when the river was a final brick, and the board read out something along the lines of A6394, I figured it's time to try and take it down. I feel like, although I'll sometimes have the best hand anyway, my kicker isn't great and I'd want to get him off AJ or AQ. His check back on the turn tells me he only has a one pair hand at best and a lot of the time it's going to be an ace. Where he tried to isolate the limper but got my action I feel it looks like I could have AK or AQ in this spot and when I lead river I want to make it look like, from his perspective, a weaker ace is losing.

17,000 in the middle and I bet 8,700, just over half pot and leaving myself 11BB behind. After much deliberation and even a sighed "you probably have two pair or something", villain called (probably heroing in his mind) and won with AJ.

My question is this: how much do I bet on the river in this spot to get him off this sort of hand?

I've since learned about basic bluff math from watching Splitsuit's videos, something that I was previously ignorant to, and know that if I bet pot he'd fold slightly more than half, whereas my bet leads him to calling two out of every three times.

So, with about 22k behind and 17k in the pot, should I be jamming the river? Or should I bet a lot more than I did, like 15k? How much should I be leading out here to get better kickers to fold? Or equally should I just check, hope he checks again and take the showdown? Or even check-shove the river if he does bet (unlikely after the turn check)?

(Ps. I am completely aware this problem wouldn't have arisen had I not played ATs OOP in the first place)!
 
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WiZZiM

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On an 8-handed table at 600/1200 (200), a player limped from relatively early and then villain in the CO bumped it up to 2800. I was in the SB with Ah Th and decided to call, for two reasons: 1. The EP limper is fairly straightforward in the sense that he limps all 'floppable' hands such as suited connectors, Broadway etc and raises his big hands so I wasn't worried about him, and 2. The raiser isn't someone I deem to be 'that' good. There was now 9,600 in the pot after my call and I had about 25,000 left while villain had just shy of 30,000.

2800 chips represents 10% of your total stack, this is quite a decent amount to be throwing into the pot speculating and not having any real plan on what you are going to be doing. Now just because the UTG is bad and the CO is not the best player, doesn't mean that you can just play this hand and profit, you are playing vs two ranges, and your hand is kind of weak considering we're only happy if we hit an ace and the only other TPTK hand we can flop is something with a T in it, which is unlikely. Any other flop i really don't see how we're going to be bluffing vs two players, so we're essentially playing fit or fold and we simply don't hit often enough and win often enough to be playing this hand OOP vs a guy who raised a limper. So it's a pretty quesiontable call for starters.

The flop was A63 rainbow,
one heart, and I check called the C-bet of 3,700. The turn was another brick and this time villain checked back.

best flop we can hope for, but this is very much a classic WA/WB spot where we are either so far ahead it isn't funny, or we're screwed by having a worse kicker, in these spots keeping villians bluffing ranges is really important, as we really cannot extract any value from many worse Ax type hands.

Now, I had seen him do this on several cases when he had top pair without top kicker, so I figured there's a strong chance he either missed the flop and just C-bet as usual and is now giving up, has a hand like JJ-KK that he wants a showdown with, or his range is along the A8-AQ range as he'd likely still barrel with the king.

Agree with this, seems like a great thought process here. Now vs that range, if we bet he either, comes along with the hands like A8 AQ etc, he might call one street and get stubborn with JJ KK and everything else folds.

With that said, when the river was a final brick, and the board read out something along the lines of A6394, I figured it's time to try and take it down. I feel like, although I'll sometimes have the best hand anyway, my kicker isn't great and I'd want to get him off AJ or AQ. His check back on the turn tells me he only has a one pair hand at best and a lot of the time it's going to be an ace. Where he tried to isolate the limper but got my action I feel it looks like I could have AK or AQ in this spot and when I lead river I want to make it look like, from his perspective, a weaker ace is losing.
Heres where your thought process doesn't make sense. Why are you trying to make him fold the A8-AQ type hands, of which we are 50/50 vs, sometimes he has us beat, sometimes he has us beat, point is vs the range you describe, he may or may not be able to fold them, and we don't get any value from him folding his a8 type hands and we also value own ourselves generally vs the AJ AQ etc. Players simply don't fold decent aces in these low level games, not saying it can't happen, but think about it, most often they will sigh/talk themselves into calling and you just value owned yourself...

So instead of betting which has very little value, doesn't checking seem like the best option, which keeps all of his KK JJ hands in his A8 etc hands in and he might value own himself by betting or turning them into a bluff, point is, we give him a chance to make a mistake by betting, and we also let all his c-bet/give up hands that won't call any bet bluff also. At the end of the day, we have a nice pot already compared to our stack size, so this going check/check and losing a little value to the A8 type hands isn't a big deal.
17,000 in the middle and I bet 8,700, just over half pot and leaving myself 11BB behind. After much deliberation and even a sighed "you probably have two pair or something", villain called (probably heroing in his mind) and won with AJ.

My question is this: how much do I bet on the river in this spot to get him off this sort of hand?

I've since learned about basic bluff math from watching Splitsuit's videos, something that I was previously ignorant to, and know that if I bet pot he'd fold slightly more than half, whereas my bet leads him to calling two out of every three times.
Whenever you watch a video, you need to be aware that naturally you want to apply all of this good knowledge, so you seek out spots to try moves, alot of the time they are just not in the correct spots. So try to avoid extremes in poker, be aware that bluffing can be a great play, but you want to have some info or a game sitauation that lends itself into bluffing. Bluffing in a low level $2 game in an early stage is asking for trouble, especially in a big pot compared to your stack size. You really need to have some form of leverage (money bubble or final table situation) or a big pay jump to have leverage and make people fold such hands often enough for it to make sense. These low level games are about extracting as much value as possible from weaker players early on when they have hit a second best hand, not about bluffing.
So, with about 22k behind and 17k in the pot, should I be jamming the river? Or should I bet a lot more than I did, like 15k? How much should I be leading out here to get better kickers to fold? Or equally should I just check, hope he checks again and take the showdown? Or even check-shove the river if he does bet (unlikely after the turn check)?
imo, yes, just check it and let him bluff it off or value bet a worse hand, this hand is just a preflop mistake, that got worse as the hand developed, and while sometimes you look like a hero when he shows up with A9, more often than not he either just folds river(and you take down the same size pot) or he has a better kicker and picks off your bluff. So fwiw i think he played the hand close to perfectly, and i think you misplayed the preflop and river...
(Ps. I am completely aware this problem wouldn't have arisen had I not played ATs OOP in the first place)!
hope this helps
 
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