xOneCoolHandx
Legend
Bronze Level
So this hand came up during league on Friday and it generated a lot of discussion and debate. So I told the players I would post it and we could get everyones take on this hand.
This is the hand: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524vlatZv
So, player in the LJ calls an UTG raise...then CU 3 bets smallish. UTG folds and LJ calls. Was this too loose of a call with J9s? I think in most cases the answer is yes...but...here you have a pretty tight player opening from the button and a suited one gapper that can flop well with lots of straights and flushes. I would be worried about flopping top pair though because you can easily be dominated here.
There was a preflop raise to 125 that was called by LJ and then a raise to 400. If I am the CU then I would have made a pot-sized raise especially against an UTG raiser who should have a very strong range and then look to fold a lot when 4 bet. Here though, the UTG raiser folded. That means there was 600 in the pot and only 375 to call meaning he has to win about 38.5% of the time for this to be a profitable call. The CU has a tight image in this spot and is most likely on 3 betting with 88+, KQs and maybe AT+...against that range I think you can easily average out to 38.5%. Against the hand he was facing (AKs) he was close to 37%.
BUT...when looking at the GTO solution, you fold J9s when you are in the LJ facing a 3 bet from the CU and call when you are in the HJ v the CU with the same hand.
However, GTO is just a basic strategy and you can and should deviate from it whenever you feel like you can exploit another player. I feel like in this spot LJ felt like he could exploit the tight image of the CU whenever the LJ hits a hand or when they both miss.
The flop comes: 7s 2h Js
I like the LJ's check on the flop and I like the CU's continuation bet. At this point, even with top pair, the LJ has a marginal made hand but may easily be dominated by the tight CU's range. The sizing is a little awkward for the cbet. It was just over a half pot meaning that LJ only has to win 25% of the time to make this call and if I am him, I think I will. If the bet is bigger
Turn: Jh
The turn comes another Jh putting two possible flush draws on the board. LJ checks and the CU wisely checks behind recognizing that LJ called with some sort of marginal made hand on the flop. This being said. A lot of CU's range would be betting here: AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AJ and any two suited that he would have: that is 6 combos of AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ, 2 AK (only the suited hearts and spades would continue), 2 AQ and 1 JJ (since CU doesn't know it's impossible for him to have JJ) for 23 combos. When CU checks behind, now LJ knows that he has the best hand.
River: Ac
I think this is a misstep by the LJ. He has trips and the ace is certainly better for CU's 3 betting range. With the turn check, I would put him on a big ace like AK or AJ because I believe AA, KK or QQ would continue on the turn and if called then, fold to a river bet or maybe called a small river bet. The only hand you are concerned with is AA and I think it is safe to remove it from CU's range. So, in this case, I would have gone with a larger bet hoping to get called by AK or AQ.
I don't mind the CU calling this bet...it was about a third of the pot so he only has to win 20% of the time to be profitable in this spot if he thinks that LJ is going to make this move with anything other than a jack. Here, we have 2 draws that have missed and a player who is apt to bet a missed draw or 2nd pair. So I think it was a good call because when HJ checks the turn and then bets the river, he is more likely to have a missed draw or a seven than a jack.
In all, I think this hand was played pretty well by both players. Maybe the call was a little loose but if the flop come K72 or 672 I think either LJ gets away from it or goes for a bluff against CU. If he is able to, he did risk 13% of his stack on this hand but would have still been left with a little more than 50 BBs.
What does everyone else think?
This is the hand: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524vlatZv
So, player in the LJ calls an UTG raise...then CU 3 bets smallish. UTG folds and LJ calls. Was this too loose of a call with J9s? I think in most cases the answer is yes...but...here you have a pretty tight player opening from the button and a suited one gapper that can flop well with lots of straights and flushes. I would be worried about flopping top pair though because you can easily be dominated here.
There was a preflop raise to 125 that was called by LJ and then a raise to 400. If I am the CU then I would have made a pot-sized raise especially against an UTG raiser who should have a very strong range and then look to fold a lot when 4 bet. Here though, the UTG raiser folded. That means there was 600 in the pot and only 375 to call meaning he has to win about 38.5% of the time for this to be a profitable call. The CU has a tight image in this spot and is most likely on 3 betting with 88+, KQs and maybe AT+...against that range I think you can easily average out to 38.5%. Against the hand he was facing (AKs) he was close to 37%.
BUT...when looking at the GTO solution, you fold J9s when you are in the LJ facing a 3 bet from the CU and call when you are in the HJ v the CU with the same hand.
However, GTO is just a basic strategy and you can and should deviate from it whenever you feel like you can exploit another player. I feel like in this spot LJ felt like he could exploit the tight image of the CU whenever the LJ hits a hand or when they both miss.
The flop comes: 7s 2h Js
I like the LJ's check on the flop and I like the CU's continuation bet. At this point, even with top pair, the LJ has a marginal made hand but may easily be dominated by the tight CU's range. The sizing is a little awkward for the cbet. It was just over a half pot meaning that LJ only has to win 25% of the time to make this call and if I am him, I think I will. If the bet is bigger
Turn: Jh
The turn comes another Jh putting two possible flush draws on the board. LJ checks and the CU wisely checks behind recognizing that LJ called with some sort of marginal made hand on the flop. This being said. A lot of CU's range would be betting here: AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AJ and any two suited that he would have: that is 6 combos of AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ, 2 AK (only the suited hearts and spades would continue), 2 AQ and 1 JJ (since CU doesn't know it's impossible for him to have JJ) for 23 combos. When CU checks behind, now LJ knows that he has the best hand.
River: Ac
I think this is a misstep by the LJ. He has trips and the ace is certainly better for CU's 3 betting range. With the turn check, I would put him on a big ace like AK or AJ because I believe AA, KK or QQ would continue on the turn and if called then, fold to a river bet or maybe called a small river bet. The only hand you are concerned with is AA and I think it is safe to remove it from CU's range. So, in this case, I would have gone with a larger bet hoping to get called by AK or AQ.
I don't mind the CU calling this bet...it was about a third of the pot so he only has to win 20% of the time to be profitable in this spot if he thinks that LJ is going to make this move with anything other than a jack. Here, we have 2 draws that have missed and a player who is apt to bet a missed draw or 2nd pair. So I think it was a good call because when HJ checks the turn and then bets the river, he is more likely to have a missed draw or a seven than a jack.
In all, I think this hand was played pretty well by both players. Maybe the call was a little loose but if the flop come K72 or 672 I think either LJ gets away from it or goes for a bluff against CU. If he is able to, he did risk 13% of his stack on this hand but would have still been left with a little more than 50 BBs.
What does everyone else think?
