Lets think this out...
I'm gonna give this my best shot at analyzing this hand. I may do a terrible job at it... but I'm going to break it down the way I see it, and then hopefully players that are better than I am can discuss it and maybe I can learn something out of it.
Villian comes into this hand with 9135 chips (114 big blinds) as the table captain.
Hero raises three times the big blind from middle position to open the pot.
Hero has 4105 chips (51 big blinds).
Small Blind has 5510 chips (69 big blinds).
Small blind flat calls 280 more.
Pot stands at 720 chips when it gets to the villian, who then raises the pot.
If this were to be a move because he thought you were trying to steal the pot this early in the tournament with everyone's M this high... its extremely ballsy (Too ballsy for me) and if you call its going to give great pot
odds to the small blind.
If you think about it, its probably not likely that he's making a move here.
With the blinds this low what kind of
hands is he going to make this bet with? Do you think he has a middle pair and puts BOTH of you on unpaired big cards? Thats tricky. Both of you are middle stacks and exactly the kind of stacks that its said are the right kind of stacks to
bluff at in these situations. But its still a lot of chips to commit to make this kind of move at this time in the tournament.
How many people are comfortable making this kind of move from the big blind? Maybe I'm just not a good enough player to make it too often. Maybe I'm too weak tight, but I'm probably not raising with a middle pair in these circumstances from the big blind at a full table with two guys in.
Is he trying a squeeze play on you to isolate the small blind with a moderate strength hand? The small blind flat called. I dont think so.
What kind of hands would YOU make this bet with?
Ok.
So now you have JJ in position with a pot thats 3120 chips, or about 3/4 the size of your stack before the hand started.
The flop is very very friendly. At this point if it gets to you, you know you're going to try to take it down.
But it doesnt.
The big blind, which represented... no SCREAMED that he had a hand is going to try to convince you again that he's got a hand. And he's going to value bet you and make the pot 4515 chips and give you better than 3-1 to call here.
If you are deepstacked at this point... maybe its a continuation bet.
But youre not. So its not.
Could it be a bluff?
Possibly but I doubt it. Its possible he could be on two high cards and think you missed the flop, or see the favorable flop with that possible middle pair. I myself dont see that in this post flop bet. Because the odds are if you play on you're going to move all in. Thats another 1670 and he's not folding to those
pot odds. So when he makes this bet... he pretty much says he's willing to go to the river with this hand. He's got to be successful with a bluff in this situation against TWO players too often I think to show a profit in the long run.
So I'm gonna say its probably not a bluff of the mugging sort either.
To call youre pretty much pot committing yourself and he's limited your options to going all in or folding.
By going all in on this flop youre committing another 3065 chips to win 6185 chips. So to fold here you have to be pretty sure that in this exact same situation you're going to lose this hand more than 2/3 times. Thats where it gets really tough on this flop for you.
And really easy on the big blind.
In fact, could it be possible to lay down your JJ on this flop in the long run and it be profitable? Thats the question I would love to hear responses on.
In hindsight its a great bet by him.
Theres no flush draw you could be drawing to, and he's got to be afraid of two hands here... Aces or tens.
Probably only tens... because he's got to figure that if you had aces you're just going to get all in before the flop and get it heads up instead of being three way here. Eights are too weak in my opinion to make the call preflop trying to make a set for a quarter of your chips on an 8-1 set.
So the only realistic hand he has to be worried about here is 10/10.
Maybe he puts you on AK, AQ, QQ, or JJ here. And if he does, giving you three to one on that flop is a great bet by him. But its the bet I would most likely fold to, even moreso than an all in by him on that flop. Its almost like he wants you to push.
All said, its got to be extremely hard to get away from that hand on the flop. I'm not saying I could have. I'd probably do the same exact thing on that flop. A few years ago I go all in instantly when he makes that bet on the flop. Now I'd hope that I would at least give myself the chance to think about what the other guy is thinking.
I have a question, when you went all in... did he insta call?
When he makes this bet, what hands do you think that he may have thought you had? To me it looks like he's pretty sure he's got the best hand... and that between you and the small blind he's planning on taking all of somebody's chips here.
This is one of the reasons I hate JJ as much as I hate AQ Sooooooooted.
He gave you every reason to believe he had a monster at all stages of this hand, especially post flop.
Taking this all into perspective, I believe the correct play would have been to fold preflop, or if you did call... fold post flop considering his actions. These are exactly the hands that I think seperate winning players from the average player and talking through these type of hands is how I plan to become a better player.
As luck would have it, thats really cool you doubled up. Did it propell you into a deep run that made you some money? Cause its a good story if so.