I'd like your thoughts

Kenzie 96

Kenzie 96

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poker stars $3 re-buy, $20,000 guaranteed, 3645 players

This hand occurred with just under 900 players left, payed top 702.
Chip leader at the time,(not at my table had around 120,000 chips.
Villain had just under 30,000 chips, 1ST or 2ND at table & I had just over 21,000.
SB 600, BB 1,200, ante 75. 9 seat table
Villain had been at my table for several rounds, LAG, had played a lot of hands, seemed not to care much about position & had at least doubled his stack since joining table.
Villain's view of me,if he cared, probably TAG, 16,000+ when he arrived, up to 24,000+, down to 21,000+.
Villain is UTG, raises 2325.
4 folds to me.
Dealt JsJh. I re-raise 4725
Button, SB, & BB fold.
Villain calls 2400
Flop Qh,Ts,9h
Villain bets 3600
My play?
 
Titusbramble

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1 overcard and an open ended straight draw...

Being in my current mood id say..ALL IN
He seems to have a pair with a good kicker..probably ace..id guess AT or AQ but still id call like a donk
 
Bombjack

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Hmmm... not beating much of his range here. I vote call and see what he does on the next round. Pushing would be a bluff since you have no reason to think you're ahead.
 
buckster436

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You got pocket JJ an open end straight and 3 hearts Jack high,, i would probally go allin>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>... buck
 
Egon Towst

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Ideally, I`d like to double his bet again, see how serious he is. Trouble is, that would make us pot-committed. Might as well push if we`re going to do that, and I agree with Bombjack that seems too risky.

Call.
 
Irexes

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I'd call.

You hit the straight or the set and you've got a decent chance of doubling.

You miss and he checks, you've a chance to take the pot with a semi-bluff (I'd suspect you were ahead if he checked the turn unless an ace hit).

You miss and he bets you can fold and have enough of a stack to double up and get back where you were.



No reason not to give him credit for AQ or KQ and if he's not got it he's probably not got the minerals to bet the turn, which is where you get the chance to demonstrate that you have.
 
loopmeister

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I'd call.

You hit the straight or the set and you've got a decent chance of doubling.

You miss and he checks, you've a chance to take the pot with a semi-bluff (I'd suspect you were ahead if he checked the turn unless an ace hit).

You miss and he bets you can fold and have enough of a stack to double up and get back where you were.



No reason not to give him credit for AQ or KQ and if he's not got it he's probably not got the minerals to bet the turn, which is where you get the chance to demonstrate that you have.

Actually, I don't think Jacks are 100% clean outs. If he's holding a K, a J is going to cause a world of pain. You're actually hoping for a K here. I'd say 8 outs for the nuts, giving you ~33% over two cards.

Villians range also includes Ax KQ KJ KT QQ QT 55-TT Bluff

If we analyse a fold vs. an all-in:

holding Ax / small PP / rags 50%: 90% chance of winning
KQ/KT/QQ/QT/TT 40%: 33%
2 hearts 10%: 66%

1. EV fold = - 4800
2a. EV push, villians folds (25%) = 0.25*11925 = +2981.25
2b. EV push, villian calls (75%) = 0.75*44500*(.5*(.9-.1) + .4*(.33-.67) + .1*(.66-0.34)) = +9879
2. EV Push = +12860

In the long run you come out (way!) ahead with a push. But since that's is scant consolation if you bust out, look at (my best guess of) your overall chance of winning : About 65% -- that's good enough to go for it, I'd say.

(You can play with the ratio's but at worst, I'd call this a coin toss).
 
Irexes

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Absolutely agree about the Js not being clean outs. You are quite right they as likely to cause trouble as help.

Can you work a call into the EV analysis? And there's a lot to be said for betting the turn even if the draw misses.
 
shinedown.45

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by the size of his bet pre-flop and call of the raise, then the size of his bet post flop tells me he's holding one of four hands,(A-K, A-Q, K-K, Q-Q) so a call is in order here and hope for a straight and if no straight then fold.
 
ChuckTs

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I gotta dump this. He's probably not going to pay you off for any type of big bet on a KQT9 board if you're showing strength after just calling the flop (that is if you hit it). As mentioned, your set outs aren't clean either and I'd just ignore them...

I also raise more preflop to further define your hand and get full value out of it. You don't want the guy to come in with like KQ or some other mediocre hand.
 
tenbob

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The pre-flop raise is terrible, horrible. Given the current size of the pot, id almost be pushing/folding, and at the current stage of the game i pre-fer beiing the aggressor.

Given the flop action, hes either blocking you from your c-bet or value betting, but given the hand you have, either shove here or fold, i prefer the shove, winning gives you the option of going much deeper.
 
Irexes

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Villain's LAG, he's playing any underpair like this and a bunch of suited Aces. His range is much bigger than the top few hands.

This is a great position to be in and calling gives all sorts of opportunities on the turn to play some pokery and if you get that far the river provides further chances.

If you don't take the pot there's no need for this to be the end of the tourney either. In a $3 approaching the bubble there's a really good chance of doubling back to where you were before this hand. He's given odds to call to chase the straight so chase it and make him pay if he shows weakness on the turn :)


I agree with Tenbob that the preflop raise doesn't achieve anything other than juice the pot which isn't great. Call or push for me, there's still room for manouevere with the blinds.
 
loopmeister

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Absolutely agree about the Js not being clean outs. You are quite right they as likely to cause trouble as help.

Can you work a call into the EV analysis? And there's a lot to be said for betting the turn even if the draw misses.

A call is too complicated - there are several avenues to consider on 4th and 5th streets, and EV analysis has to consider all of them (and guess %s for each); so I apologise for my utter laziness in this regard :)

I'll write a little program sometime to do this all automatically, but till then I'm afraid I need to stick to the fold / All-in scenarios.

Intuitively, I expect the EV to lie somewhere inbetween to two extremes, but still > 0
 
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