Let's use ICM to see why making the shove was the wrong play.
Stacks before the hand and the ICM
Hero (SB): $4,725.00 = $2.72
BB: $1,580.00 = $1.25
UTG: $3,450.00 = $2.28
CO: $870.00 = $0.72
BTN: $2,875.00 = $2.02
ICM Assuming everyone folds the the Hero Shove
Hero (SB): $5,175.00 = $2.87
BB: $1,480.00 = $1.21
UTG: $3,450.00 = $2.31
CO: $870.00 = $0.74
BTN: $2,525.00 = $1.88
ICM Assuming BTN Calls and Hero Wins
Hero (SB): $7,700 = $3.58
BB: $1,480.00 = $1.69
UTG: $3,450.00 = $2.68
CO: $870.00 = $1.05
BTN: = out
ICM Assuming BTN Calls and Hero Loses
Hero (SB): $1,850 = $1.53
BB: $1,480.00 = $1.26
UTG: $3,450.00 = $2.38
CO: $870.00 = $0.78
BTN: $5,850= $3.07
Villain stats are 17/3/4.7 this is only over 121 hands though and he is folding to a three bet 50% of the time which is only twice out of the four three bets I have data on.
So lets assume he is calling with 4% of his range here, since his raising and steal range is so low and he is only calling three bets 50% of the time, plus calling here is for his tourney life. (note, this is a small sample)
So we plug the data into PokerStove
---------------equity--------win---------tie
Hand 0: 43.135% 32.55% 10.58% { AhKs }
Hand 1: 56.865% 46.28% 10.58% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
So If the button calls Hero will:
- Win $0.71 43% of the time = $0.31
- Lose $1.34 56% of the time = -$0.75
So with the ICM calculation we are going to lose $0.44 making this play if we get called.
With that said, I'm not sure how we can put a number on how often villain is going to fold. We know his fold to three bet is 50%, but that stat only counts 4 three bets. If we had more hands on villain we would have a better idea of how often he will fold.
If the button folds to the shove Hero will
- Win $0.15 100% of the time = $0.15
Anyway, this proves the risk to shoving isn't worth the reward which is all I really wanted to show.
ICM also has flaws, it assumes everyone is exactly equal in skill, and that they will play the same regardless of stack sizes.
likes).
