Hero Call with river pair?

In the money of 11 dollar tourney 200 or so people left.

I'm a big stack (100k) and have been very aggressive so far. Villain has been looking to play back at me (villain has 70k)
Blinds are 1000/2000 ante 100 (3900 in pre flop pot)

I raise from button with Td 8d to 4000, villain calls 2000. (Pot 9900)

Flop 2d 3h Qd

Villain checks, I bet 3000, villain calls (pot 15900)

Turn 7c

Villain checks, I bet 5400, villain raises to 14000, I call (pot 43900)

River 8h

Villain shoves all in 49000


So my hand is a pair of 8's and I'm essentially bluff catching, can I make this call?

It's not recommended make the call, on those levels is not much common to see bluffs that include raises on the turn... Also, villian showed so strong, it's preferable to wait a better spot

When villain takes that line though what hands can he realistically have?

I think that betting 1/3 of the pot on flop and on the turn gives the opportunity to the opponent make moves on that spot. I mean that if you had a Q on that board with flush draw, wouldn't you make a larger bet (more or less 1/2 of the pot) to get value from flush draws?

A 7 on the turn doesn't change that much, unless he had 77 and made a set. He could have that and called flop with 2nd pair to see the action on the turn and expect some cards to bluff (K, A). A 7 is not a good card to bluff though.
An 8 on the river doesn't change anything and he goes allin. It's a spot where the vilain is polarized. What is he representing here? Sets and overpairs that didn't 3bet preflop. He could have 22 and 33, that called once on the flop and expected a turn bet to confirm that you had a Q and then check raise turn and then send the rest on the river (same line with overpairs that didn't 3bet preflop). He could also have 77 that hit a 7 on the turn and excpect to get called by Qx.

It's a tricky spot but I see a lot of nonsense bluffs on levels under $11 buyin. People in general don't react very well with agressive players and he could be bluffing here. He is representing a very specific range of hands and by betting 1/3 of the pot flop and turn you don't represent a Qx so it gives him the opportunity to make some moves.

I think that against you that is an agressive player he would 3bet with AA, KK, and get more value preflop, or give you rope to hang yourself trying to bluff him of the hand, not check raising turn on a 7. This river jam is very suspicious. If he had a Q, with what does he expect to get called? He is saying "I have an overpair" or "I have a set". He could have a read of your size bets and decided to make a move.

It's a bad spot to be in and it's difficult to call, but as you played I think that is a spot to bluff catch. But be careful, because if you call there very often you become exploitable, others can see that and be very agressive with just a pair against you and expect you to bluff catch. You can also fold and pay more attention on that vilain trying to catch some leak and be on a better spot to get all of his chips. I recommend that you pay more attention on your size bets to avoid these spots.

missed diamond or straight draw? A2 or A3
There are a few bluffs, but I would fold to the turn raise with no pair no draw. just check it back even. Then it's a more realistic cost/spot to bluff catch 2nd pair on the river.

I think that betting 1/3 of the pot on flop and on the turn gives the opportunity to the opponent make moves on that spot. I mean that if you had a Q on that board with flush draw, wouldn't you make a larger bet (more or less 1/2 of the pot) to get value from flush draws?

A 7 on the turn doesn't change that much, unless he had 77 and made a set. He could have that and called flop with 2nd pair to see the action on the turn and expect some cards to bluff (K, A). A 7 is not a good card to bluff though.
An 8 on the river doesn't change anything and he goes allin. It's a spot where the vilain is polarized. What is he representing here? Sets and overpairs that didn't 3bet preflop. He could have 22 and 33, that called once on the flop and expected a turn bet to confirm that you had a Q and then check raise turn and then send the rest on the river (same line with overpairs that didn't 3bet preflop). He could also have 77 that hit a 7 on the turn and excpect to get called by Qx.

It's a tricky spot but I see a lot of nonsense bluffs on levels under $11 buyin. People in general don't react very well with agressive players and he could be bluffing here. He is representing a very specific range of hands and by betting 1/3 of the pot flop and turn you don't represent a Qx so it gives him the opportunity to make some moves.

I think that against you that is an agressive player he would 3bet with AA, KK, and get more value preflop, or give you rope to hang yourself trying to bluff him of the hand, not check raising turn on a 7. This river jam is very suspicious. If he had a Q, with what does he expect to get called? He is saying "I have an overpair" or "I have a set". He could have a read of your size bets and decided to make a move.

It's a bad spot to be in and it's difficult to call, but as you played I think that is a spot to bluff catch. But be careful, because if you call there very often you become exploitable, others can see that and be very agressive with just a pair against you and expect you to bluff catch. You can also fold and pay more attention on that vilain trying to catch some leak and be on a better spot to get all of his chips. I recommend that you pay more attention on your size bets to avoid these spots.

@Jim Brown I had a draw to the diamond flush on flop/ turn so I decided to barrel flop and turn with intention on giving up on all rivers (he didn't seem like a player who would fold a Q on the river even to a big bet). So the turn bet was more targeted at getting A2/K2, any random 3 or something like 55, 66, 88, 99 off the hand.

@Jack Leaff
Good point on my flop/ and turn sizing, I think you're right that I don't rep a queen there.

But I think your analysis as to what he has is spot on. When he jams river, he never has just a Queen. I'm not sure if he would make the same jam with two pair, but I'd say he'd be more likely to bet 2/3 of the pot for value instead. So that means he can have 77, and maybe Q7. Plus he can have 22 and 33 some of the time - but I think he's raising flop a lot of the time with those hands. I don't think he'd take this line with an overpair or QQ - he's almost 100% 3 bet me pre (as he had 3 bet me multiple times before as well). So I think his value hands are limited to 77, Q7, 22,33

In terms of his bluffs, he can have diamonds like J9, k9, Ax maybe 67, 56, 45 etc.

He can also have 45 in another suit drawing to a straight that decided to raise turn and jam the missed river

I also think he can have no equity bluffs here (A9 of spades or something) that floats flop and decides to make his stand on the turn (given that I'd been running over the table at this point, and he seemed like he wasn't too happy about it).

I'd fold. the only hands he would play like that are Qx 1010+ or a busted flush draw. I cant see him defending with 45 like you said pre flop. my money is on he had the queen the whole time and small balled you into being the aggressor which would be a good play. calling all-in big stack against big stack for 49000 is pointless really if your in the money you can surely find a better spot to get your chips in. you might have him with your 8's but I wouldn't be paying to find out. What did he have? if you called?

If you're going to raise pre-flop, why do you decide to min-raise?
Then you proceed to only bet 1/3 of the pot each time, now you have to ask yourself, "Is this an online tell I'm unaware of?"

As for the question, this is an easy fold, he told you,by his check raise on the turn, he had you.

shinedown.45 said:

If you're going to raise pre-flop, why do you decide to min-raise?
Then you proceed to only bet 1/3 of the pot each time, now you have to ask yourself, "Is this an online tell I'm unaware of?"

As for the question, this is an easy fold, he told you,by his check raise on the turn, he had you.

Click to expand...

Minraising is pretty standard in this spot. Our raise has to get through a lower % of the time to be +cEV and we lose less chips or risk less chips by r/f or r/c if we are 3bet. We also go to a flop with a higher SPR when flatted by minraising.

The flop sizing is fine as our opponent is going to miss this flop very often and just fold.

The turn is definitely where I would be going larger as we want to induce our opponent to fold, in the range of an 8-9k bet.

@87shorts
Why would he ever play TT like this? He would surely check river or make a very thin value bet - by shoving river he is turning his tens into a bluff, which he doesn't need to do.

I think what was probably key in my decision to call was the history between us. I'd been playing very aggressively, and I think he had been trying to push me around as another large stack in previous hands.

One last thought, if my analysis is right that he would never jam for value with Qx - then me having a pair of 8's is basically the same as me having a pair of queens - since I'm basically bluff catching. If that's the case, then if he can take that line and get me off 'top pair' (since a queen is the same as an 8 in this spot) then I'd be super exploitable? Especially since the range of hands he's representing is super thin.

Anyway I called and he flipped over 45 off suit - so he raised turn and barrelled when his straight draw busted.

I think against an aggressive player who knows that I've been super aggressive - catching the 8 on the river was good enough to bluff catch

@trent32la
I bet small on the turn because I was very wary of a possible check raise - and didn't want to inflate the pot too much and get blown off my equity.

Although if that's a case - and I'm anticipating I'm not going to get him to fold too many hands, then maybe I should have checked back turn?

My normal play would be to bet turn larger - but against an aggressive player I didn't see too much benefit in doing so. I'd hate to bet 9k and have him raise big and have to fold all my equity...

I can hear mirco going "Call!! Call!! Call!!".

Like the comparison that essentially 2nd pair is as good as top pair, if he turned 2 pair or better you loose no matter what.

His flat call gave me the impression he was light but there were so many small cards the could hit his range. Shuving into you on the river however was very fishy, if he was so strong wouldn't he want to get paid off with a small bet rather?

Good call! Lucky river! Thanks for sharing...

Where did you finish in the end?

Thanks sunirico, that was my thinking. Ended up in 21st after losing a flip and two 70/30's all with AK (all 3 all in pre flop) in the space of 10 hands

The line he took is a very convincing line to take for value. Obviously you know the table dynamic better than we do so you have more information to make the correct decision. With that being said I find that in tournaments in these spots where you have to put a lot of chips in the middle where you are not sure if your ahead or behind, sometimes its better to just let yourself get outplayed/bluffed. I also think it's important to note that in these spots where you want to go for a hero call, sometimes you have to trust your instincts and go with it. As for me, I would not be going for a hero call in this specific spot with no reads

ez fold as played

bet turn bigger or check

also can just check flop

Pretty easy choice for me to fold there. What are you expecting him to have there? A flush draw as well?

I guess it is possible he has A5 there as well, and it hoping for a draw and trying to get an aggro player off of his hand on the river.

I'd fold deep because of not wanting to take marginal spots in tournaments that deep. Play smart, play TAG and take good spots. This spot? not a good one.

I guess his hand combinations would be AIR, A5 etc or a blown FD and a Q.