$Freeroll NLHE MTT: over pair bad luck

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Brawo

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1200 preflop was your standard raise? What is yours and opponent agression factor?
How often he made 3-bet and how often you fold to 3-bet?
3-bet is really small, hmm weird. SB calls and his range is wide.
Is your call right? hmm yes and not, it depends on the informations I don't have.
Flop is safe, rainbow with two pairs for you. All in is a mistake. Why you did that?
What are you afraid of? You want earn as much as you can, not frighten opponents, I think 2/3 pot is ok and then - call/check-raise from him - you can thinking about what he can has. What is his range? every pairs above nines I think /AQ/AK/ suited or not. Could you escape from this hand? after flop I think you could not but If I were you I would make cold-4-bet around 4000chips. Opponent go all-in I fold, If he call and see this flop I go all-in. Call preflop doesn't give me informations.
 
king11682

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1200 preflop was your standard raise? What is yours and opponent agression factor?
How often he made 3-bet and how often you fold to 3-bet?
3-bet is really small, hmm weird. SB calls and his range is wide.
Is your call right? hmm yes and not, it depends on the informations I don't have.
Flop is safe, rainbow with two pairs for you. All in is a mistake. Why you did that?
What are you afraid of? You want earn as much as you can, not frighten opponents, I think 2/3 pot is ok and then - call/check-raise from him - you can thinking about what he can has. What is his range? every pairs above nines I think /AQ/AK/ suited or not. Could you escape from this hand? after flop I think you could not but If I were you I would make cold-4-bet around 4000chips. Opponent go all-in I fold, If he call and see this flop I go all-in. Call preflop doesn't give me informations.



Thank you Brawo, your advice is very useful to me for the next one; I was very aggressive when I left All In. I never imagined that the opponent had AA, especially when I had an Ace and another Ace came out on the flop, I was surprised; I must be more cautious, betting what is necessary and studying my rival in the other streets.
 
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Brawo

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Thank you Brawo, your advice is very useful to me for the next one; I was very aggressive when I left All In. I never imagined that the opponent had AA, especially when I had an Ace and another Ace came out on the flop, I was surprised; I must be more cautious, betting what is necessary and studying my rival in the other streets.


You welcome, here you are good thinking. If you see two aces, probability he hold aces is very low, but always exist :)
 
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ssbn743

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Double pair on the flop. All IN and AA opponent LOL

https://www.boomplayer.com/31175250_63AB148063

Definitely opening this hand Pre-Flop. I'm not in love with the min-click though, with about 30BB I vastly prefer 2.25X, $1,500 in this case. I can get behind a min-click just because of the 15BB, Big Blind, but I still think I'd prefer 2.25x from UTG.

As a generally rule, if you open this hand UTG and get 3-bet by anyone, this is a Raise/Fold spot (probably a fold in most cases). However, in this case villain gives you an unbeatable price (600:5890), coupled with the donk SB calling with what should be 0% of his range - I think we simply have to call and re-evaluate flop.

Flop is where this hand falls off the rails.

The jam here is bad. Doing so allows villain to play optimally against you, he can simply fold all but his strongest hands profitably.

Now, this does suck - believe me, especially since you double block AA and TT; there's only 1 combo of each even possible. But, by jamming here, we fold out all the combos we beat, even the biggest ones such as KK, and lose our stack when he shows up with what is realistically a 2 combo bad beat (I don't think 44 3-bets UTG from +1 do you?).

So, I think this is a clear C/R spot, we can get lots of value from most of his 3-bet hands, as I think all of them have to fire flop, think KK for example.


So, hypothetically, let's say he bets $3,200 OTF. Now, we can jam, and should.

Here are the numbers:

Assign a standard +1 to UTG 3-bet range (QQ+,TT,AKs,ATs,KJs,AQo+)
This gives us 81% equity on this flop

His range is 60 combos in total (actually 52 because of our AA and AT blocks) but Equilab takes care of that
I think 28 Combos have to fold, giving villain 46% fold to jam.

You might think we have similar numbers by jamming flop. However, doing so changes the way the spaghetti comes out of the machine - he only calls with AA TT and folds all else. While this is technically +EV (6490*.91 - 18,388 *.09=+4250.98) it comes as a tournament elimination 9% of the time and only 20% stack increase when we win – there are way better spots, like a C/R on this flop.


Attached are 2 spreadsheets, one with the C/R line and the other as played.

This is a perfect C/R spot - and a "Good Game" in this particular instance.


 
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mara2259

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In accordance with the Harrington classification, the AT's hand is considered very weak and your case confirms this very well. All-in is also not perfect. In this case, you can easily get a call from hands of the type AJ, AQ, AK and there are still two undisclosed cards ahead. I suppose the rate of the pot would be quite sufficient to find out where you are and make an informed decision. But for some reason I am sure that you would hardly have dropped their two senior couples into a villain overbet.:tomato:
 
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Double pair on the flop. All IN and AA opponent LOL
https://www.boomplayer.com/31175250_63AB148063
It would be better if you did not post the result of the hand. When the result is posted, those that reply are biased in their analysis. If you want to get real help, post the hand up to where you were confused about what to do so those that reply can best help you sort those things out.

Preflop: Hero UTG min-raises and gets 3-bet buy UTG+1 with a min-raise. What does Hero think that UTG+1 was min-raising with? It is not uncommon to see a min-raise from UTG with AA - typically this is done to induce a bluff. What was Hero trying to accomplish with the min-raise? Trying to induce a bluff from a worse hand? Trying to get better hands to fold?

Instead of calling the UTG+1min-raise, why not try a 4-bet as a bluff? Yes, going to the flop bad to be OOP to the UTG+1, but a 5-bet from UTG+1 would provide more information.

Flop: Hero OOP jams 2.8x the pot size. What was Hero trying to accomplish with this over-bet? This is just bad. Hero will only get called by better.

Hero had ~30 big blinds at the start of the hand. There is no reason to go broke. As played Hero lost the maximum (tournament life). Important to think about the range our opponents raise with, and why.

Again, unfortunately the results were posted... so analysis is biased. Keep grinding and learning!
 
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fundiver199

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Hero had ~30 big blinds at the start of the hand. There is no reason to go broke.

Of course Hero is going broke here. There is no way, stacks dont go inside, when one player has top set and another top two, and there is so little stack left behind. However Heros line missed out on value from all the hands, he was ahead off, and thats why it was a mistake.
 
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scubed

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Of course Hero is going broke here. There is no way, stacks dont go inside, when one player has top set and another top two, and there is so little stack left behind. However Heros line missed out on value from all the hands, he was ahead off, and thats why it was a mistake.
I see this differently - Hero went broke because of not thinking in ranges and overplaying when hitting a flop.

Hero's min-raise is not optimal. That said, what does hero think UTG+1 is re-min-raised with? The min-raise from the UTG1 easily has strong ranges 99+ (might even have worse pairs), ATs+, AQo+, KJs+, KQo, JTs+.

There is no skill in hitting a flop. When Hero hits the flop hard of course he wants to get maximum value from it. I agree with this! Is going all-in the path to get maximum value from worse hands? I would argue "no." What did Hero want to accomplish with going all-in? Was hero afraid of the possible straight draw on a rainbow board? Going all in on the flop in this scenario for 18 big blinds will only get called by better AA, TT, 44 (though 44 unlikely) and perhaps a chop with AT, and that is exactly what happened.

Hero could have bet an amount that the following opponent range would call: 99, JJ, QQ, KK, AK, AQ, AJ, KT, QT etc.... the objective is getting worse hands to call Hero's bet. A 1/3 pot to 1/2 pot bet on the flop would not put Hero's tournament at risk on the flop.. but would provide a pot building scenario to gain more information and possibly get it all-in on the river if we thought Hero's hand beat enough of opponents range. This 1/3 to 1/2 sizing could also induce opponent to shove which provides hero an opportunity to re-evaluate before committing tournament life to the pot.

Finally - betting 3x the size of the pot has to work almost every time to be profitable. This means hero should only bet 3x the pot when very, very sure hero will win (whether at showdown or by opponent folding).

Would be great to know where this tournament was in terms of places to the $$ to see if ICM implications were also a factor.
 
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ssbn743

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Overall, I agree with you’re saying – however, I do have a couple of issues with your post that we could discuss.


Finally - betting 3x the size of the pot has to work almost every time to be profitable. This means hero should only bet 3x the pot when very, very sure hero will win (whether at showdown or by opponent folding).


I’m not trying to be ticky-tac here, but we have shown that the flop shove is +EV. Largely, the reason for this is simply blockers to all combos that crush and discounting most, if not all, draws. But, betting 3x pot, gives our opponent 3:4, 3/7, or 42%-ish, meaning our action has to work 58% of the time to breakeven. Doesn’t really matter in this case – I just like to make sure the math is being done.


Hero could have bet an amount that the following opponent range would call: 99, JJ, QQ, KK, AK, AQ, AJ, KT, QT etc.... the objective is getting worse hands to call Hero's bet. A 1/3 pot to 1/2 pot bet on the flop would not put Hero's tournament at risk on the flop.. but would provide a pot building scenario to gain more information and possibly get it all-in on the river if we thought Hero's hand beat enough of opponents range. This 1/3 to 1/2 sizing could also induce opponent to shove which provides hero an opportunity to re-evaluate before committing tournament life to the pot.


While I see what you’re saying, donk-ing into raises is generally not the best line. Sure there are spots – I don’t think this is one unless you’re willing to fold flop to a raise – which is pretty nitty given 81% equity. For that reason, I really don’t like it, what are we folding to? 5 combos? (AA, AT, 3-44’s)? Or less if we can discount 44, which I think we can nearly 100% of the time.


So we better have a damn good reason if we’re going to take this line, like villain is the biggest NIT in the room type of a reason, even then we’re talking 2 realistic combos – has to be a dead-on soul read to be profitable.


There is no skill in hitting a flop. When Hero hits the flop hard of course he wants to get maximum value from it. I agree with this! Is going all-in the path to get maximum value from worse hands? I would argue "no." What did Hero want to accomplish with going all-in? Was hero afraid of the possible straight draw on a rainbow board? Going all in on the flop in this scenario for 18 big blinds will only get called by better AA, TT, 44 (though 44 unlikely) and perhaps a chop with AT, and that is exactly what happened.


100% agree. We’re not ashamed to get it in here, and when considering that villains 3-bet hits this flop hard –a C/R jam is by far the optimal line as we have shown with the math. It’s unfortunate when we know that we lose – but I think we’ve show it to be immensely profitable regardless.
 
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scubed

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Overall, I agree with you’re saying – however, I do have a couple of issues with your post that we could discuss.
Really enjoyed sharing this analysis with you. Let's do more of these together!

I think we on the same page that the mistake of this hand was Hero's min-raise pre-flop. ATs is absolutely an open from UTG, it is the sizing that was questionable. In the end, the pre-flop sizing by both Hero and Villain led to the rest of the hand playing itself in terms of the math.
 
theANMATOR

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Just a comment - I think it's inconceivable to think villain has pocket Aces when the flop comes out. This is probably a fault I have that I need to address, but hitting two pair on the flop with Aces would instantly make me think villain is holding a big pocket pair and the only thing I'm loosing to from him is Ts, and maybe 4s from SB.
Though on the flop I'd play it differently, I'd be milking this all the way down and getting crushed on the river, the outcome would still be the same.
 
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fundiver199

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Just a comment - I think it's inconceivable to think villain has pocket Aces when the flop comes out. This is probably a fault I have that I need to address.

No its absolutely not a fault. The fact, we block AA and TT, makes it less likely, Villain has one of these two hands and more likely, he has something, which we dont block or block less. Like JJ-KK, which we dont block. Or even AX, where we only block 1/3 of the combos and not 2/3.

But even with blockers Villain will sometimes have the hands we block, unless they are completely blocked. He can still have 1 combo of AA, and this time that is exactly, what he had. Which is just a bit of a gross cooler for us.


Yesterday something similar happened to me. I opened from BTN with A8, BB called, and flop came AK8. Great situation for me, since he would most likely have 3-bet AA, KK or AK. So I pretty much only lost to 1 combo of 88. All the money went in on the flop, and 88 is exactly, what he had.

These cooler or setup spots suck, when they happen, but they dont actually matter in the long run. Because sooner or later he or another player have the A8, I have the 88, and they also lose all their money to me.
 
theANMATOR

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I can relate

Yesterday something similar happened to me. I opened from BTN with A8, BB called, and flop came AK8. Great situation for me, since he would most likely have 3-bet AA, KK or AK. So I pretty much only lost to 1 combo of 88. All the money went in on the flop, and 88 is exactly, what he had.

These cooler or setup spots suck, when they happen, but they dont actually matter in the long run. Because sooner or later he or another player have the A8, I have the 88, and they also lose all their money to me.

I can relate to a recent cooler as well.

I can't exactly remember the pre-flop action. I think it folded around to me in SB I may have min-raised, I'm holding 5/6 s, BB called.
Flop 5/9/5 rainbow. Bingo!
I check - BB bets, I call. I put him on A/9 or any pocket pair. (it never crossed my mind he might have a 5)
Turn blank.
I check - BB bets, I call. The range I think he has is still the same. (I'm still oblivious that their are four 5s in a standard deck)
River blank.
I shove for a little less than pot, BB calls (either way all money was going in here)
BB turns over 9/5 o for the boat.

If I did min-raise maybe a larger bet might have scared him away, although if my memory serves correctly I was a smaller stack. Either way all the money is getting in the middle, from my perspective.

Blockers are funny and useful.
 
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Folding ATs UTG with 30bb is fine.


your all-in with 3x pot size is terrible. you hit top two on a rainbow flop and just jam? you lose so much Money here…..
just check to the reraiser and let him cbet. you can still call/raise or jam a brick on the turn
 
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fundiver199

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Folding ATs UTG with 30bb is fine.

ATs is not even near the bottom of our range here, we should open many other suited hands as well, that are worse than this. Something like any suited ace, K9s+, QTs+, JTs. We are only playing 7-handed, and there is an ante to fight for besides the blinds, so we cant just sit and wait for the nuts.
 
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ATs is not even near the bottom of our range here, we should open many other suited hands as well, that are worse than this. Something like any suited ace, K9s+, QTs+, JTs. We are only playing 7-handed, and there is an ante to fight for besides the blinds, so we cant just sit and wait for the nuts.
oh i didn't recognize that two seats are open.
then you are Right!


my advice About folding ATs from time to time (not everytime) would be for 9 handed tables
 
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