$Freeroll NLHE MTT: Opponent calling on a draw. Luck or percentage on his side?

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koskesh

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So I have seen this happen a few times but I just don't understand calls like this which is basically doing a Hail Mary and wishing for the best. Your thoughts on these types of calls? Was it pure luck or were the odds really on his side?

pokerstars Hand #169614153269: Tournament #1859329704, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (80/160) - 2017/04/26 22:32:30 PT [2017/04/27 1:32:30 ET]
Table '1859329704 226' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: nipur524A (115 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: ilpinguino (2495 in chips)
Seat 3: AMK Bra (2405 in chips)
Seat 4: milaja_kisa (2880 in chips)
Seat 5: Pahlev00n (7660 in chips)
Seat 6: 119TT119 (740 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 7: katia902 (3205 in chips)
Seat 8: zetools (590 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 9: Vladkros1603 (570 in chips) is sitting out
nipur524A: posts the ante 15
ilpinguino: posts the ante 15
AMK Bra: posts the ante 15
milaja_kisa: posts the ante 15
Pahlev00n: posts the ante 15
119TT119: posts the ante 15
katia902: posts the ante 15
zetools: posts the ante 15
Vladkros1603: posts the ante 15
nipur524A: posts small blind 80
ilpinguino: posts big blind 160
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Pahlev00n <font color='red'>7♥</font> 7♠
AMK Bra: calls 160
milaja_kisa: folds
Pahlev00n: calls 160
119TT119: folds
katia902: folds
zetools: folds
Vladkros1603: folds
nipur524A: folds
ilpinguino: raises 160 to 320
AMK Bra: calls 160
Pahlev00n: calls 160
*** FLOP *** <font color='black'>8♣</font> <font color='red'>9♥</font> <font color='red'>Q♥</font>
ilpinguino: bets 160
AMK Bra: calls 160
Pahlev00n: calls 160
*** TURN *** <font color='black'>8♣</font> <font color='red'>9♥</font> <font color='red'>Q♥</font> 4♠
ilpinguino: checks
AMK Bra: checks
Pahlev00n: bets 1600
ilpinguino: folds
AMK Bra: raises 310 to 1910 and is all-in
Pahlev00n: calls 310
*** RIVER *** <font color='black'>8♣</font> <font color='red'>9♥</font> <font color='red'>Q♥</font> 4♠ <font color='red'>J♥</font>
*** SHOW DOWN ***
AMK Bra: shows <font color='red'>10♥</font> <font color='red'>K<font face="arial">♦</font></font> (a straight, Nine to King)
Pahlev00n: shows <font color='red'>7♥</font> 7♠ (a pair of Sevens)
AMK Bra collected 5475 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5475 | Rake 0
Board <font color='black'>8♣</font> <font color='red'>9♥</font> <font color='red'>Q♥</font> 4♠ <font color='red'>J♥</font>
Seat 1: nipur524A (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: ilpinguino (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 3: AMK Bra showed <font color='red'>10♥</font> <font color='red'>K<font face="arial">♦</font></font> and won (5475) with a straight, Nine to King
Seat 4: milaja_kisa folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Pahlev00n showed <font color='red'>7♥</font> 7♠ and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 6: 119TT119 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: katia902 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: zetools folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Vladkros1603 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
 
oriole

oriole

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Why did you bet turn? Especially since it's a freeroll.
 
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kozong

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fold the flop, any 8 beat you there
 
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koskesh

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Based on his previous plays at the table, my instinct was right that he didn't have a hand and was trying to draw. I thought my large bet would discourage him.
 
mbrenneman0

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i would just open all in pre
 
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ph_il

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Fold flop.

You're looking at 3 overs with a very weak backdoor straight/flush draw and 2 other players in the hand.

Check turn and see a cheap river. Your 77 is either slightly ahead or way behind at this point, but you have some showdown value. With that river, it's an easy check/check or check/fold.
 
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koskesh

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Fold flop.

You're looking at 3 overs with a very weak backdoor straight/flush draw and 2 other players in the hand.

Check turn and see a cheap river. Your 77 is either slightly ahead or way behind at this point, but you have some showdown value. With that river, it's an easy check/check or check/fold.
I agree 100% with your point but in this case I made a decision based on instinct that he didn't have a hand and I was right. Unfortunately for me though, he decided to take a risk by calling my large bet and it paid off.
 
akmost

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I like the flat pre but it is an easy fold on the flop. What card are you waiting to improve you on the turn? A seven or a heart? It is an ultra wet board and it is not only that there are 3 over cards on the board.

Ok he got lucky but that's not the point. Your play was absolutely -ev! I used to play like that I fixed it and guess what?I fixed one of my biggest leaks in my post flop game. Cheers :)
 
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koskesh

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Ok he got lucky but that's not the point. Your play was absolutely -ev!
Yes you are absolutely right. I clearly see my error in judgement now. Thanks mate! 👊
 
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sarniack

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I agree 100% with your point but in this case I made a decision based on instinct that he didn't have a hand and I was right. Unfortunately for me though, he decided to take a risk by calling my large bet and it paid off.

It is good to rely on your instinct from time to time, but imo only when it is close spot. Playing under pair on wet board aggressively is not the best choice here ;). I would opt for playing your value hands and draws aggressively and your medium hands, weak draws and air passively in general (this is of course some starting point, not fixed rule, like everything in poker I guess).

The other question is: why did you limp? You had good hand to open raise and isolate. 77 is not the hand that plays great multiway pot.
 
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koskesh

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The other question is: why did you limp? You had good hand to open raise and isolate. 77 is not the hand that plays great multiway pot.
I thought limping in rather than raising was a cheaper way to at least see the flop and also keep the other two players in the hand to have a potentially bigger pot rather than just taking the blinds. The big blind had raised min preflop and min bet on the flop with only one other caller. Then they both checked on the turn which I thought was a sign of weakness since there was no continuation bet. But I now know better for next time 😉
 
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sarniack

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I thought limping in rather than raising was a cheaper way to at least see the flop and also keep the other two players in the hand to have a potentially bigger pot rather than just taking the blinds.

I haven't seen that so many people were sitting out, in this case this looks better. But I would still raise there ;).
 
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iAmBadAtPoker

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i think the main problem with your call is that with small pocket pairs the only real value you get from them is hitting a set. if you dont hit it on the flop you really shouldnt even put one more big blind into the pot. although he didnt have the neccesary odds to shove on top of you like that it looks to me that his stack to pot ratio was practically 1:1 going into the flop so he must have felt commited to his hand and thought if he folded this hand he was going to have about 10bb to play with so he just went for it.
 
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