Freeroll tournament 50€ guarantee.
Players 668, 184 left, cash places 134.
Table 10 players.
Blinds 500/1000, (no ante).
No HUD
MP3 - Limp - 22 BB
CO - Limp - 18 BB
DB - Limp - 35 BB
SB - Call- 20 BB
POT 4.5 BB
HERO Shove from BB with 15 BB
Is this a profitable shove or should I've just check?
Math is the answer here, we’ll go through that below, but as a default I’m not in love with this shove and vastly prefer a check. Now, there is something to be said for the short stack sizes involved, in that that, may increase our fold
equity from what is nominal, but it’s still a pretty aggressive and unnecessary play IMO. Let’s go through the math:
Ok, we are effective at 15BB – I like the get in it in thinking here, that’s what we should be thinking, how do I get it in? The pot is 4.5BB prior to our shove, we can take the free check.
We also need to know how much equity we have if called – which is harder to estimate in such a donk-ish scenario, they could really have all 1326. However, if we use Equilab to tell us our equity against all 4 other hands, and assuming a giant range of:
77-22,A9s-A2s,K7s+,Q7s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s,AJo-A2o,K7o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o
We get 22%
Against just one of those ranges:
We get 54%
Average them together, and that’s being generous, we get 38% equity
Plugging all that into my handy-dandy spreadsheet (I’ve attached) and we’re going to see some less than good numbers.
-First, our breakeven number is 77% - which means we have to win, one way or another, 77% of the time just to break even
- From a FE perspective, we need 4 bad players to limp fold at least 55% of the time just to break even
So, let’s say we feel we can take advantage of the short stacked, donk nature of our villains, and we can generate folds 80% of the time (which is pretty much a pipe dream), we make 2.5BB.
That’s risking 15BB for 2.5BB.
So, to answer your question, is it profitable? Yes…..Probably, (although, again there are lots of factors here), but we should still take the free check.
