$Freeroll NLHE MTT: I can't believe this AQo. Do you call?

cardschat daily freeroll. ITM bit far.UTG limps quite often.
BTN player is normal or bit rock.
so I thougt his hand was pp or AQ+.

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - 200/400 (50 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/824FSJeel

UTG: 11,449 (29 bb)
UTG+1: 6,080 (15 bb)
MP: 6,660 (17 bb)
MP+1: 3,389 (8 bb)
LP: 4,779 (12 bb)
CO: 2,813 (7 bb)
BU: 7,425 (19 bb)
SB (Hero): 24,031 (60 bb)
BB: 7,137 (18 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,050) Hero is SB with A♣ Q♥
1 fold, UTG+1 calls 400, 4 players fold, BTN raises to 7,375 (all-in), SB (Hero) folds, 2 players fold

Total pot: 1,850
BU wins 1,850

This is very villain dependent in my opinion. I am not worried about the UTG player as if it folded to me I would have jammed it all day on them. So it comes down to what type of player is the button who is shoving 17 or so BB in this spot. Big blind being less than button helps since we do not have to worry about action behind us, in fact we can treat this like we are closing the action. The button, unless very nitty, could be shoving with worse than what we have. If they picked up on what you picked up on that UTG limps a lot, button would be shoving with Ax with x larger than 8 here and shoving pairs. I dont think they would be shoving Kx here but I could be wrong on that. I am guessing if they are not nitty that buttons range is A8+, pocket pairs and I will throw in KQ, KJ suited. I am not sure what a solver would say to that range but I am personally not loving it for 1/3rd our stack. I know we could have them crushed here but I would fold here. AQ is right on the edge for me as AK would be an easy call and AJ for me would be a fairly easy fold. Like I said, villain could have worse here with worse aces but I prefer a fold vs most likely flipping to the bad vs a pair and we have no fold equity as the money has already been put in the pot.

Situations like this is, what ICMizer is for. If you plug this in as a MTT "far from the money" situation, AQo is actually a fold, while AQs is a call. However ICMizer is assuming, that UTG+1 limp a reasonable range of just 17% of hands. If you edit that to 50% of hands, now down to ATo is a call, because BTN will be jamming much wider, assuming he is adjusting to this wide limping range. And I think, that is a realistic assumption, so I would for sure be calling with AQo here and also AJo. ATo is very borderline and can still be folded.

Another point to consider is, that both players most likely split their range in a situation like this, so they dont have an uncapped range, as ICMizer assumes. Habitual limpers usually raise their best hands and then limp a lot of junk, that they should mostly have folded. So the limp is basically dead chips to pick up. And also BTN would hardly be jamming it in for 17BB, if he had QQ-AA, because with these hands he would want action, and they are very easy to play with a low SPR.

So maybe BTN can have AK and the limper the very occational "trap", but AQ is almost freerolling here, since its so unlikely, we are behind. If BTN has a hand like 88, and we end up playing a "flip", that is totally fine, since there is dead chips in the pot, and losing will still leave us with a healthy stack. So this is not the time to be risk averse and avoid "gambling", as so many instinctively want to do.

Your job as big stack is not to be the table's hero. It is to threaten the smaller stacks into folding better hands. Had the Button just raised or called, then I would say shove. As it is played, I say a fold is good. Fold only loses you about half a blind. Call/lose takes you from dominate big stack to three way tie for table big stack. Call/win doesn't really change the table dynamic enough for the risk (though it would be nice).

Unless this is a FT you are hemorrhaging money here when you dont call. AQo is a snap call for 30bb or less. Villan shoves over one limper for 20bb - standard spot - snap call. You need to get these spots corrected while you are playing freerolls so you don't lose value when playing on your own bankroll.

Run this spot in icmizer and it will show you how quickly this is a call. I am breaking down the door here to click the call button - I would probably iso so the limper doesn't flat behind and put us in some weird spot post flop - bad players make bad choices, no sense in us suffering because of it.

EDIT:: you can even adjust the ranges in icmizer to suit what you think the villans might have - still going to be super tough to tighten them up enuff to find the fold here. We are at the top of our range and this is a clear cut call.

I don't think this guy has AJ or lower. I agree with you, his range is AQ+. So I think it was a good fold. If you call, the best you could find would be a coin flip.

thehangdude said:

Call/win doesn't really change the table dynamic enough for the risk (though it would be nice).

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At this early stage of an MTT chips in themselfes are way more important than table dynamics. This is basically like a cash game hand, and if calling has a positive chip EV, we should call.

With AQ, I like to be doing the betting, rather than the calling. I don't mind your fold there.

fundiver199 said:

At this early stage of an MTT chips in themselfes are way more important than table dynamics. This is basically like a cash game hand, and if calling has a positive chip EV, we should call.

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You are a better player than I, and have probably made more in a good day than I've made the past few months. But there is one game I know, CC freerolls. In these freerolls, you don't get to rebuy. You have to build your stack, protect and use that stack. When a 20BB player shoves, you are risking your chips when you call.

This is the middle stage of the tournament, with BB at 400. Most times, a 20BB Button will only shove with pairs (66-QQ) and AQ+, maybe a suited AT+. I am guessing Button has a pair, because any Ax (or even Broadway) hand would want to take advantage of their position.

For the Hero, AQ would be about even EV, maybe a bit above. But what is the purpose of flipping? Hero already has a good hold on the table. They should continue to chip away at the lower stacks, rather than risk their position with one marginal hand. With a strong table chip lead, they should be picking up 3-4BB per round, not risking their lead flipping a shove.

Just my two cents.

thehangdude said:

You are a better player than I, and have probably made more in a good day than I've made the past few months. But there is one game I know, CC freerolls.

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Its true, that I have not played that many of these CC freerolls, and now I can not play them at all, because local regulations dont even allow freerolls, where I live (sweden). So I dont have all that much feel, how these exact games play.

But that being said I cant quite believe how nitty a range, both you and OP put BTN on. What do you think, he do with KQ, AJ, AT, A5s etc. Fold because there is a limp from someone, who "limps quite often", or limp behind???

Of course some actual HUD-data would be usefull here, and if BTN is a bit of a nit, and/or the limper is one of those fairly tight but passive guys like a 23/5, then it is fine to go with the ICMizer range and call only AQs, AK and JJ+.

But yeah I am calling here and even more so in a freeroll, because I think, people have if anything wider ranges than in a normal MTT, and if I bust (which would obviously require losing more than just this hand), it still cost me nothing more than my time

AQo has 63%/34% equity versus random hand. Your wining 2/3 hands and your risking 1/3 of your stacks, it is +ev.

Presume that villain has less than 20 bb push/fold.

AQo has 59%/37% equity if villain is doing it with Top 15% (33-99, A4s-AJs, KTs+, A8o-AJo)of the hand excluding Top 5% (TT+,AQs+AQo+).

AQo has 49%/42% equity with Full Top 15%

AQ0 has 42%/47% equity if villain is doing it with Top 10%

fundiver199 said:

But that being said I cant quite believe how nitty a range, both you and OP put BTN on. What do you think, he do with KQ, AJ, AT, A5s etc. Fold because there is a limp from someone, who "limps quite often", or limp behind???

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I am not saying Button's range is nitty, I'm saying his 20BB shoving range is narrow. With a hand less than good pairs and AQ, villain would call or raise with good position.

At 10BB, I can see Button shoving KT+ as a squeeze. At 20BB, knowing there is a big stack left to act, Button is not shoving under AJ. Biggest chance is he caught AK or has a pair. He figures about a 1/3 chance UTG+1 or Blind calls. So get the money in good or take the 4ishBB.

thehangdude said:

I am not saying Button's range is nitty, I'm saying his 20BB shoving range is narrow. With a hand less than good pairs and AQ, villain would call or raise with good position.

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I think, this is where, we see it differently. If BTN raise to 4BB to isolate the limper, and the limper call, pot will be around 10,5BB with 10,5BB left behind in the effective stack. This is not a spot, I would want to be in with hands like AT, AJ or KQ, so with those hands I would much rather just jam it in preflop for maximum fold equity. Whereas if I had QQ, KK or AA, then I would lean towards the 4BB isolation to increase my chance of getting action

Now to be fair there is something in poker called the mirror complex, and just because I would play in a certain way does not mean, that this particular villain does. This is one of the beautiful things about poker and why a hand like this is actually quite interesting. Especially because we dont know Villains hand, which lead to a much better and more unbiased discussion

fundiver199 said:

I think, this is where, we see it differently. If BTN raise to 4BB to isolate the limper, and the limper call, pot will be around 10,5BB with 10,5BB left behind in the effective stack. This is not a spot, I would want to be in with hands like AT, AJ or KQ, so with those hands I would much rather just jam it in preflop for maximum fold equity.

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I think with the positional advantage, I would rather play these hands when called. If in the SB, I might consider shove or fold play here.

Whereas if I had QQ, KK or AA, then I would lean towards the 4BB isolation to increase my chance of getting action

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I would also just raise these hands. That is why I said (post #10) that it was likely pairs 66-QQ. KK and AA would be a raise only. Raise top and bottom of 20BB range, shove pairs and AK (maybe AQ).

Now to be fair there is something in poker called the mirror complex, and just because I would play in a certain way does not mean, that this particular villain does. This is one of the beautiful things about poker and why a hand like this is actually quite interesting. Especially because we dont know Villains hand, which lead to a much better and more unbiased discussion

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This is one of the reasons I love interacting in the Cards Chat forum. I learn more here than if I were to read a book. It allows me to see multiple ideas, and how each might be implemented. It allows me to become less predictable. At least it would if I wasn't so hard headed. lol

Thank you for all the reviews and advice.

It is a little questionable that the frequent limp of UTG+1 extends the push range of BTN.
Of course, if the BTN is strong enough, it will expand the range.

Perhaps my best was to believe that BTN was a strong player and call with AQo and take note of the result.
I think Fold was a timid play in the long run.

fhruhrhit said:

It is a little questionable that the frequent limp of UTG+1 extends the push range of BTN. Of course, if the BTN is strong enough, it will expand the range.

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The reason, I mention the ICMizer ranges, is because, the program calculates the NASH equilibrium, which assume, everyone are playing an optimal strategy. And that assumption is pretty far off, when we are dealing with limpers, since they are usually just bad players, who play way to many hands. In this case you even had a read to comfirm, that he was "limping frequently". So its not so much a question of BTN adjusting to this particular limper but more to bad limpers in general.

The other side of the coin is, that many regulars at the lower stakes are a bit on the nitty side. And if I look at the range of hands, which ICMizer comes up with for BTN, when I input a 50% limping range, then I dont think, he is jamming all off these. So the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

fhruhrhit said:

Perhaps my best was to believe that BTN was a strong player and call with AQo and take note of the result. I think Fold was a timid play in the long run.

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Even though I would personally have called, I dont think, this fold was a mistake. It is one of those spots, which are so close, that they dont matter much in the long run. And you definitely had the right idea, which is, that you need to play tight, when you are calling off a 19BB jam.

Also as someone said, the worst thing, that can happen when folding is, that you still have 60BB and a really great situation. So even if you gave up on a tiny bit of EV, this is far from a disaster. You can find loads of good spots as the table chipleader, where some weak regs might fold even more, than they are supposed to, when you jam on them rather than calling them off.

Good fold, i think. Even if the button did not have a higher game than yours there was still the possibility of the initial limper calling you and he would probably only call you with a better hand or maybe a middle pair. Besides that i don´t know how long it takes to the blinds go up, but especially if it is not turbo, it was a good fold.

thehangdude said:

Your job as big stack is not to be the table's hero. It is to threaten the smaller stacks into folding better hands.

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Well said. I've noticed a lot of players feel this way. They think when you have a huge stack you should change your game and player looser and more aggressive. While that's true, you should moreso be using your stack to bully short stacks, not stacks that threaten your lead.

One mistake can take you back to Earth.

RimworldDoctor said:

Well said. I've noticed a lot of players feel this way. They think when you have a huge stack you should change your game and player looser and more aggressive. While that's true, you should moreso be using your stack to bully short stacks, not stacks that threaten your lead.

One mistake can take you back to Earth.

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This is true but even so the big stack should call a little wider than a middling stack. Sure its not great to go from 60BB to 40BB, but its a whole lot worse to go from 22BB to 2BB.

I find limpers to be weaker more often than trappy in small stakes games. Yeah everynow and then you get that guy who limps AA or KK and traps but its more often a rag Ax, smaller pair or mediocre Kx. In this spot witg AQo i am simply too high up in my range to fold ESPECIALLY in a freeroll scenario where opponents are making more mistakes than in any other game.

Again, mathematically we can go broke with 30bb and less with AQ -- easy spot. Stop passing up profitable plays and dwelling on what if you lose a flip -- get yourself icmizer and run your one free hand analysis every day and start learning these spots before you start playing tournaments where you are buying in with your own $$!!

Jon Poker said:

get yourself icmizer and run your one free hand analysis every day and start learning these spots before you start playing tournaments where you are buying in with your own $$!!

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ICMizer actually has AQo as a fold in this scenerio. But in real life limpers are typically not using a GTO strategy, which change the NASH equilibrium. As you say, the limp is occationally a trap, but more often a marginal hand trying to see a cheap flop. If BTN is any good at all, he should know that, he should be jamming wider as a result, and then we can also call wider behind.

In top of that its a freeroll, so who even care, if we bust? Then we can go to bed and not spend more time on it. I know, this is not the "correct" way to look at it, if we are playing to become better. But to some extend there is also a limit to, how serious we should take freerolls like this with a price pool of 100$. Most of our opponents are not, so at least in the early phase stack off ranges will almost always tend to be on the wider side.

fundiver199 said:

ICMizer actually has AQo as a fold in this scenerio. But in real life limpers are typically not using a GTO strategy, which change the NASH equilibrium. As you say, the limp is occationally a trap, but more often a marginal hand trying to see a cheap flop. If BTN is any good at all, he should know that, he should be jamming wider as a result, and then we can also call wider behind.

In top of that its a freeroll, so who even care, if we bust? Then we can go to bed and not spend more time on it. I know, this is not the "correct" way to look at it, if we are playing to become better. But to some extend there is also a limit to, how serious we should take freerolls like this with a price pool of 100$. Most of our opponents are not, so at least in the early phase stack off ranges will almost always tend to be on the wider side.

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I agree, and you have already mentioned why icmizer has AQo as a fold here is because it takes into account that our EP limper could be trapping. You take that play out and make it a btn open shove - we snap call -- make the limper min raise and BTN shove - im still inclined to believe we are too high up in our range to fold as well tho we would have to run it to be certain.

At the end of the day -- im still standing my ground and a firm believer in this spot. I would also think that you would agree with me that in the majority of scenarios we can get in AQ for 30bb or less without issue. Recognizing the ones where we should be folding is going to be that next little step up to understanding ranges. For a solid basis for most learning players tho - I would say that 30bb or less rule for AQ is pretty solid and profitable long term. Agree?

Jon Poker said:

I would say that 30bb or less rule for AQ is pretty solid and profitable long term. Agree?

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Not quite if there is to much action ahead of us. But against only a single jam, AQ is never a massively losing call for 30BB, and especially not in freerolls or soft micro games.

fundiver199 said:

Not quite if there is to much action ahead of us. But against only a single jam, AQ is never a massively losing call for 30BB, and especially not in freerolls or soft micro games.

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Of course - I did mention there are some scenarios where this "rule of thumb" would not apply and too much action in front certainly is one of them so we can agree on that. My point is that most of the time in lots of standard spots we can get in AQ for 30bb or less and be long term profitable. This much is true and I think this much as can probably come to a consensus on. If not - then I guess we may be neighbors but we don't share the same driveway lol