@thatguy6793, UTG raiser is 12 bb, it doesn't mean he is going to open wider, in fact we can assume that if he opens 4bb, then he is always going to call 3-bet all-in and never folds.
We cannot assume that a freeroll player will do what they should do.
So, his open raise should be similar to preflop shove range, which is top 12%.
Where does this number come from? A chart? Your average freeroll player does not have Nash ranges taped to their desk. They have heard that a king is a good card, so they bet.
Are we going to call huge portion of our stack and pray for K/Q without Ace or flush draw(which comes only once in 8 times)?
Why pray for a flop without a flush draw? If the opponent has a flush draw they are more likely to pay us off when behind in the hand, if we make a pair. And we may have a flush draw ourselves.
It's very difficult to estimate villains's ranges here with the given information, so let's think about it without assigning ranges, except to say that it is likely one opponent has an Ace.
There is a 32% chance of any two unpaired cards making a pair or better on the flop. If there is no A on the flop, any pair the hero makes is top pair.
http://www.suntzupoker.com/poker-odds.aspx
Hero's actual chance of making a pair or better is above 32%, since hero holds suited connectors. But I am not sure how to calculate the actual chance, so let's use the lower number for argument's sake.
If we assume nothing about villains's hands, there is a 77% chance of no aces on the flop.
Hero does not have an ace, leaving 46 non-Ace cards available out of the 50 unknown cards when the first card of the flop is dealt, 45 of 49 for second card, etc.
So P(No Ace on Flop) = 46/50*45/49*44/48 = .77
But with two opponents, there is a good chance one or more of the villains has an ace. If a villain has an Ace, there is an 83% chance of no ace on flop.
47/50*46/49*45/48 = .83
Let's discount that to 81%. We estimate that it is more probable than not that a villain has an Ace, but we would have to be certain that they did to use the full 83% number.
Chance of two independent events both occurring:
.81 * .32 = .26
If I am correct, the odds of hero making top pair with no A on the board is about 1 in 4.
There are 950 chips in the pot and it is 350 to hero to call, so 950:350 = 350 / (950+350) = 27%
pot odds.
The chance that the hero makes top with no A on the flop is almost enough to justify the call, if we assume top pair or better wins the hand.
We can't assume that.
But the hero can also make high flushes and straights, trips, two pair, and full houses, and could hit top pair on later streets if the flop checks around. I think a call is more than justified here.
We are ignoring ICM considerations, since it is early in the tournament.
And even if hit bare king, it is not easy double up, because we are against two opponents out of position. If we donk shove, their calling ranges are stronger than our hand
We cannot assume their calling ranges are stronger. They should be stronger, but often they are not.
Generally it is good practice to follow simple rule: Don't call preflop more than 10% of your stack.
I have not heard of this as a general rule, can you provide a source? I've heard of the rule of 5 and 10, which applies to speculative hands. KQs is a hand that often makes top pair, we are not depending solely on sets, flushes, or draws.
In general you are giving far too much credit to the players in this game.