$Freeroll NLHE MTT: Brave All-in IMO

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Supmargy

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PokerStars - 150/300 Ante 25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 36.84 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 23)
CO: 27.12 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 1.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 57)
BTN: 14.67 BB (VPIP: 10.20, PFR: 4.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
Hero (SB): 41.97 BB
BB: 11.94 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)
UTG: 22 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
UTG+1: 7.24 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
MP: 20.15 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 5.13, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 39)

8 players post ante of 0.08 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.17 BB) Hero has 6:diamond: 3:spade:

fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 14.59 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, MP calls 12.59 BB

Flop: (31.35 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond: T:spade: J:spade:

Turn: (31.35 BB, 2 players) 9:heart:

River: (31.35 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond:

MP shows Q:spade: K:spade: (Straight, King High)
(Pre 48%, Flop 64%, Turn 79%)
BTN shows 9:spade: 9:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 52%, Flop 36%, Turn 21%)
MP wins 31.35 BB


Hey guys. This was in tonights CCFR.

I was thinking this was a really brave allin our MP.
His opponent (BTN) 3bets with a VPIP/PFR of 10/4. Looking at that range, it seems like getting 45% on the flip is the absolute best case scenario. "Lots" of hands would dominate KQs.

Any thoughts?
 
rikoberto

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Hey Supmargy.Its pretty standard situation for almost 15bb effective stack..both are correct..MP raise/calling and button's shove..See it from other angle also..Raising/folding with 99 is a mistake and if button doesnt 3bet/shove with KQs,a very strong hand with very good play ability is mistake also.I think its auto play situation and very often you gonna see it in tables..:)
PS:situation can change only if we are exactly in bubble
 
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Supmargy

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I ran some numbers and took a 3bet shove range of 77+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+.
That doesnt seem to be exagerated for his VPIP/PFR, and position (he could always flat and see what the flop brings, he had 15bb after all, and only 2 was needed to call).

So vs that range, KQs has 37.12% equity. And our MP needs to call 40% of the pot.

Doesnt seem worth it to me.

Thoughts? It's the first time i run those numbers, so I might have overlooked something.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Let's try to make the case for the MP to call.

Button is short stacked, so let's give him a wide range, despite his nitty numbers: [22+, AT+]. That's probably too wide, but we are being generous to MP. KQs has 41% equity.

18.76BB in pot and it's 12.59BB to call, so MP gets only 1.5:1 on the call. MP needs 12.59 / 18.76 = 67% equity to call.

That would be all we need to think about in a cash game. But in a tournament, medium stacks should be risk-averse prior to being ITM due to ICM. That makes the call even worse.

I've done much dumber things though!

Edit: Sorry Supmargy, did not see your post before posting this.
 
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Supmargy

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Yeah I even made a mistake. He has to call 67% of the pot. Not 40 like i said. 40% is 12.59/~31. So its even worse as you described it.

I think at that point we were already in the money though.
 
iwont20

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Don't forget that you play against the same people here and it's maybe only you have 40 hands with this statistics on BTN, when other players may have more hands or notes or have a better understanding of his range.

But that could have been just a bad call and that's it ;)
 
gon4iypes

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I just wanted to really thank all you guys (and dolls? lol ) for your thoughts and analysis...it really means a lot to me...I am going to get PT and start really studying. My results should hopefully improve
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Don't forget that you play against the same people here and it's maybe only you have 40 hands with this statistics on BTN, when other players may have more hands or notes or have a better understanding of his range.

But that could have been just a bad call and that's it ;)

Valid point.

40 hands is enough to determine that the button isn't a maniac.

But I've seen otherwise sensible players who get really wild at the end of tournaments.

Maybe MP has seen the button shove weak hands in similar situations before.
 
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Supmargy

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Valid point.

40 hands is enough to determine that the button isn't a maniac.

But I've seen otherwise sensible players who get really wild at the end of tournaments.

Maybe MP has seen the button shove weak hands in similar situations before.

The thing with shoves is that you lose the advantage of positioning, since you realise your full equity by being there till the river.
So if you think it through, there's absolutely no reason to shove on the button with a weak hand, especially if the UTG (who should have a tighter range than his average) raised. So I really think he shoved, expecting a call >50% of the time.

Maybe I'm overthinking this though.
 
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Supmargy

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Don't forget that you play against the same people here and it's maybe only you have 40 hands with this statistics on BTN, when other players may have more hands or notes or have a better understanding of his range.

But that could have been just a bad call and that's it ;)

Yeah that's very true. Although if you pay some attention to the table, you don't need a HUD to see he's never in pots.

I honestly believe I was able to take the tourney down yesterday (partly) due to the fact that I was single tabling. No distractions, just pay attention.

On that topic though: it might be more profitable to multi table if you're looking at profit/hour. But if you look at ROI, single tabling should be the best.
 
rikoberto

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Let's try to make the case for the MP to call.

Button is short stacked, so let's give him a wide range, despite his nitty numbers: [22+, AT+]. That's probably too wide, but we are being generous to MP. KQs has 41% equity.

18.76BB in pot and it's 12.59BB to call, so MP gets only 1.5:1 on the call. MP needs 12.59 / 18.76 = 67% equity to call.

That would be all we need to think about in a cash game. But in a tournament, medium stacks should be risk-averse prior to being ITM due to ICM. That makes the call even worse.

I've done much dumber things though!

Edit: Sorry Supmargy, did not see your post before posting this.

Hey AlexTheOwl..First of all my first post was a full fail-mistake because i read it fast,and as a result i was thinking that MP has the pocket 99 and Button has KQs which is exactly the opposite..:D..Anyway lets see again the situation..If the Button 3bet-shoves a range like (55+,ATs+,AQo+,KQs) MP has 38.76% equity against this range so its a fold as he needs 40.2% to call..(and NOT 67% as you said..i will explain you below why)..If Button shoves all pocket pairs and more Ax+ hands its a kinda break even,to +EV call..KQs vs (22+,ATs+,AJo+,KQs) has 41.05%..Even he looks tight player,i tend to believe that he will shove wider,so i believe 2nd range is closer for a real estimate of his shoving range..Now about pot odds..I think you actually did a big mistake calculating the odds..When MP calls button's shove,he doesn't need 67% equity to call..Actually in Nl Poker you will never find situation above 50% equity to call..Here is a fast example...Assume that we have a cash table and blinds are 0.5/1 dollars...Lets say that all fold and action goes to SB who has 100dollars(100bb)..SB goes all in for 100 dollars..now decision goes to BB..pot is 101(100 for sb shove and 1 bb of our BB player) and he needs to call 99..its a 101:99 situation or 1.02:1..He needs 49,5% equity to call..In our hand,MP player needs 40.2% to make this call..:)..
PS:i am sure that you know to count the pot odds,just you made a math mistake..have a nice day :)
 
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Supmargy

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Hey AlexTheOwl..First of all my first post was a full fail-mistake because i read it fast,and as a result i was thinking that MP has the pocket 99 and Button has KQs which is exactly the opposite..:D..Anyway lets see again the situation..If the Button 3bet-shoves a range like (55+,ATs+,AQo+,KQs) MP has 38.76% equity against this range so its a fold as he needs 40.2% to call..(and NOT 67% as you said..i will explain you below why)..If Button shoves all pocket pairs and more Ax+ hands its a kinda break even,to +EV call..KQs vs (22+,ATs+,AJo+,KQs) has 41.05%..Even he looks tight player,i tend to believe that he will shove wider,so i believe 2nd range is closer for a real estimate of his shoving range..Now about pot odds..I think you actually did a big mistake calculating the odds..When MP calls button's shove,he doesn't need 67% equity to call..Actually in Nl Poker you will never find situation above 50% equity to call..Here is a fast example...Assume that we have a cash table and blinds are 0.5/1 dollars...Lets say that all fold and action goes to SB who has 100dollars(100bb)..SB goes all in for 100 dollars..now decision goes to BB..pot is 101(100 for sb shove and 1 bb of our BB player) and he needs to call 99..its a 101:99 situation or 1.02:1..He needs 49,5% equity to call..In our hand,MP player needs 40.2% to make this call..:)..
PS:i am sure that you know to count the pot odds,just you made a math mistake..have a nice day :)

Oh yeah ok, so what I said before:
"So vs that range, KQs has 37.12% equity. And our MP needs to call 40% of the pot."

is correct? He needs 3% more equity to make it profitable?

It makes sense if you think about it. If you have an 67% chance to win a pot where the maximum you take part of is 50%, it's always profitable. So Alex did make a mistake.

Thanks for your input, I was tired when I read it yesterday and didn't think about Alex's comment.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Hey AlexTheOwl..First of all my first post was a full fail-mistake because i read it fast,and as a result i was thinking that MP has the pocket 99 and Button has KQs which is exactly the opposite..:D..Anyway lets see again the situation..If the Button 3bet-shoves a range like (55+,ATs+,AQo+,KQs) MP has 38.76% equity against this range so its a fold as he needs 40.2% to call..(and NOT 67% as you said..i will explain you below why)..If Button shoves all pocket pairs and more Ax+ hands its a kinda break even,to +EV call..KQs vs (22+,ATs+,AJo+,KQs) has 41.05%..Even he looks tight player,i tend to believe that he will shove wider,so i believe 2nd range is closer for a real estimate of his shoving range..Now about pot odds..I think you actually did a big mistake calculating the odds..When MP calls button's shove,he doesn't need 67% equity to call..Actually in Nl Poker you will never find situation above 50% equity to call..Here is a fast example...Assume that we have a cash table and blinds are 0.5/1 dollars...Lets say that all fold and action goes to SB who has 100dollars(100bb)..SB goes all in for 100 dollars..now decision goes to BB..pot is 101(100 for sb shove and 1 bb of our BB player) and he needs to call 99..its a 101:99 situation or 1.02:1..He needs 49,5% equity to call..In our hand,MP player needs 40.2% to make this call..:)..
PS:i am sure that you know to count the pot odds,just you made a math mistake..have a nice day :)

Riko, that was a silly mistake about pot odds, thank you for the correction.

Your range estimate for the button's shove, [22+,ATs+,AJo+,KQs], is 10.11% of all hands.
The estimate in my post, [22+,AT+] is 10.71% of all hands. So they are very similar. As I said in my post, I think that range is a bit wide, but I was trying to make the case for the MP.

What do I REALLY think the MP should have estimated as a range for the button?

Arguments for MP to estimate a 10% - 11% range for the button:

- The button has two ways of winning chips here. He can win at showdown, or MP can fold.
- The button is short-stacked. He will run out of chips soon if he does nothing



Arguments for MP to estimate a narrower range for the button:

- The button is a nit. By definition, nits usually have narrow ranges for raises.
- Supmargy thinks the tournament is past the bubble. Many players are short-stacked. The button could win a higher payout just by surviving a little while longer, instead of being knocked out here. Nits tend to go for a good chance at winning a little bit more, instead of a smaller chance at winning a higher prize.
- Most importantly, the button has seen MP, a tight player (PFR only 5%!), raise from middle position. This usually means a big hand, but the button shoves anyway. Supmargy makes a similar point by saying button probably expects to be called often,

Estimating ranges is not an exact science, but if I was the MP I'd estimate a range of [99+, AQ+] here, 5.13% of hands. This makes MP's call look worse.
 
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darthdimsky

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MP's POV

MP is a dumb@$$. He blames his parents for it (which makes it worse).

It wasn't a purely mathematical call but I put his range at 22+,ATo+ (I have a history of him 3b shoving ATo in a similar spot. BB has 18/14 over a 269 hand sample.

We were also just above 10 places away from the bubble. I figured I'll gamble for a better shot at the FT (which I didn't make). It was a bad call in hindsight. Given how close we were to the bubble and how nittier than usual he was playing in this session.

Screenshot of pot odds and blinds at time of call provided.
 

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AlexTheOwl

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:laugh:

Very classy post darth. I've certainly done worse. Today. But it was an interesting discussion.
 
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Supmargy

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MP is a dumb@$$.

Haha :D

As alex said: we've all done worse.

I really thought we were already itm at that point. Didnt remember exactly.

Whats the 63% and 37% in your screenshot? What does it mean?
 
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