$Freeroll NLHE MTT: BB defend and check fold TP

***** Hand History for Game 16591627515 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:152607996 Level:20 Blinds-Antes(1,500/3,000 -300) - Thursday, October 26, 22:53:23 EDT 2017
Table CAD Title Fight Bounty (152607996) Table #17 (real money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 5/9
Seat 9: VILLAIN ( 303,660 )
Seat 2: ******* ( 86,408 )
Seat 7: ******* ( 142,100 )
Seat 6: PepeTurtle ( 116,989 )
Seat 8: ******* ( 97,680 )
Trny:152607996 Level:20
Blinds-Antes(1,500/3,000 -300)

PepeTurtle posts big blind [3,000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PepeTurtle [ Js Ks ]

folds

folds

VILLAIN raises [10,500]

folds

PepeTurtle calls [7,500]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, Kd, Qh ]

PepeTurtle checks

VILLAIN bets [24,000]

PepeTurtle folds

This is a freeroll tourney held on Party, only available for canadians in which the prizes are tickets for satelites targeting $215 events.

Villain with reasonable frequency was betting pot good hands that he was hitting on flops when he raised pre, and everything else he was limping and playing passive or min betting then check folding.

I was sitting 5 of 11 left at this point and opted for the fold preserving my stack to a less 'foggy' spot. I folded feeling bad about it but I thought the best scenario I was beating AQ, AJ of diamonds...

Anyways, busted 3rd and got a $44 sat ticket.

Thoughts ???

Villain is big stack on button in unopened pot. He should be raising with any King here. Do you know how aggressive villain has been pre-flop?

On flop, villain makes pot sized bet. You seem to have a good read on him, indicating that he hit the flop. It all comes down to how wide you think he is opening pre-flop. You have a king with an above-average kicker, and the pot is already substantial.

AlexTheOwl said:

Villain is big stack on button in unopened pot. He should be raising with any King here. Do you know how aggressive villain has been pre-flop?

On flop, villain makes pot sized bet. You seem to have a good read on him, indicating that he hit the flop. It all comes down to how wide you think he is opening pre-flop. You have a king with an above-average kicker, and the pot is already substantial.

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Yeah, remembering the hand from now I think I kind chicken over there. But any mediocre K he was limping and being softer as I remember. What really weighted towards the fold was the stack size and FT just ahead.

Villain

You are deep and blinds are big, 5 players at table. Villain is in position and stacked, he uses that to push the others around with a pot size bet that he can afford to lose. 24k is at least 25% of their stack, the others more. 5 handed the hands are stronger, should have re-raised to test him, more than likely you had the nuts and would have improved your position greatly.

agriggy said:

You are deep and blinds are big, 5 players at table. Villain is in position and stacked, he uses that to push the others around with a pot size bet that he can afford to lose. 24k is at least 25% of their stack, the others more. 5 handed the hands are stronger, should have re-raised to test him, more than likely you had the nuts and would have improved your position greatly.

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You are telling Pepe how the villain was playing. Pepe was actually in the game, and he is telling us something different.

It would be reasonable for the villain to play as you described, but that doesn't mean that the villain was actually playing that way.

Also, "the nuts" doesn't mean what you think it means.

perhaps I misunderstood but I took it as Pepe folded TP ( top pair ) to an 8X BB bet which he defended pre flop.

I re-read the post, Pepe had top pair with a Jack kicker, to me those would be the nuts, Pepe should have raised rather than fold to get a $44 ticket, that potentially led to him not winning the $215 ticket. Only AA in the hole or 2 pair had him beat , with k,q,8 on the flop he was very unlikely to be behind.

agriggy said:

perhaps I misunderstood but I took it as Pepe folded TP ( top pair ) to an 8X BB bet which he defended pre flop.

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You are right, and I suggested that the fold was too conservative if the villain was playing as aggressively as a big stacked button should be playing in this spot.

We agree on that, I think.

My point is only that Pepe says he has a read that seems to indicate the villain is not playing that aggressively, and that you may have overlooked that read.

This is a freeroll, many beginners do not realize the power of their positional and stack size advantage.
If this villain is playing as though this is the middle stage of the tournament and he is in MP on a full table, I think we have to take that into account.

I think with 29 blinds you should have folded preflop unless you had a read on the villan that he was either extremely loose or folds to 3bets with a high frequency- then you can jam over him. Its hard to understand the icm implications of the hand without knowing the payout schedule.

I understand what you are saying ( not sure what MP is, hopefully not Military Police ( joking about Police ), the fact remains they are almost final table.

agriggy said:

I understand what you are saying ( not sure what MP is, hopefully not Military Police ( joking about Police ), the fact remains they are almost final table.

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lol, I meant Middle Position (MP). I think we basically agree.

TeUnit said:

I think with 29 blinds you should have folded preflop unless you had a read on the villan that he was either extremely loose or folds to 3bets with a high frequency- then you can jam over him. Its hard to understand the icm implications of the hand without knowing the payout schedule.

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Big stack on the button here in an unopened pot should be raising at least 40% of his hands here, I think? Much more, really.

But if we conservatively say 40%, KJs has 51% equity with 4% split pots, and gets a discount on the call since he is the BB. Go above 40% for the villain's range and it gets better.

Hero is out of position with a hand that is often dominated, but Pepe reports that the villain's play is fit-or-fold, so very readable. There is a case for folding, but I like the call.

I don't think we are in push/fold mode yet, so there is no true ICM solution, but you rightly note that there could be ICM considerations if hero is near a pay jump.

I dont know what the payout structure was, but in sattys often top 5 get a ticket or something like that so ICM is very important and the final table icm will look more like a double or nothing.

That we do, god luck in all your games.

TeUnit said:

I dont know what the payout structure was, but in sattys often top 5 get a ticket or something like that so ICM is very important and the final table icm will look more like a double or nothing.

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Of course, you got it. 2nd to 5th place only would get the $44 ticket, rest was an $8 ticket.

Let's assume I would have called the flop bet (24k) and now we are on the turn with a 79K stack behind. What if the turn is a brick like a 6 of clubs or something and villain barrels again ?

Kind dilemma because if I am right about the villain, as I think I was, he would force me to commit the rest of my stack on the turn as I've seen him doing to other players and his showdowns on these cases were good. At the same time once I call the flop and turn is a brick, why exactly I would have found a fold with 79K stack and a pot of 65K ???

So, yes, ICM is the point.

Best Regards

With the flattish payout structure I think it would be good to fold preflop.

TeUnit said:

With the flattish payout structure I think it would be good to fold preflop.

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Yes, indeed.