Badly Played Nuts (MTT)

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glennelson

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So I had :6c4::4c4: in the BB. UTG limps. One middle position limper. SB completes. I check.

Flop comes :5s4::2h4::3s4:

What's interesting is that at this stage of the tourney blinds are only 40/80, but I have 7360 chips, the UTG limper has 8815, the middle position limper has 5305 and the SB limper had 9542. So we all happen to be well above the average stack and I'm looking to get payed off. I obviously don't want to see a spade so I raise 160 into a pot of 320. UTG calls and the others fold.

Turn comes :7d4:

I raise 320 into a 640 pot and he calls again. Now I'm wondering if he also has a 4 and is open ended. Maybe A4. But I know it's more than likely that he hit a piece of the flop. My first thought was "If he has a hand like A4, an ace on the river would be my dream card" and sure enough...

River comes :ah4:

So I have the absolute nuts and if he DOES have A4, or any other hand with a 4, I could double up and leap right to the top of the leader board. Anyway, I must have talked myself into him having a 4 because I went all in (6880 into a pot of 1280) without giving it too much thought.

The reason I immediately felt kinda donkish is because he folded after tanking for all but 2 or 3 seconds of his clock, which means I probably could have gotten payed off if I bet 1/2 the pot, 2/3 the pot or maybe even more. I've made the same move in this position many times, but for some reason it really bothered me this time, mainly because he took so long to fold. Now I'm thinking he had A5, A2, A3 or A7, made 2 pair on the river, but let it go since all I needed was 4x. Besides, if he DID have a 4 and I kept firing on the river, he almost definitely would have reraised and I would have probably doubled up anyway. I think sometimes when you have the absolute nuts on the river, it can cause you to think faster and consider less factors. Also, the times that it works (A lot lol) can make it so tempting. Definitely a missed opportunity for me and a mistake I don't plan to repeat. I'll definitely remember this hand the next time the situation arises. In fact the more I think about it, I don't see how an all-in could ever be the correct play, even if it works.

Anyone?
 
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titiduru

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Hard to say. He could have tanked because he thought you were bluffing with such an over bet, he could have had just King high for example, a hand he would have got rid of without hesitation for a value bet, but one he could have paid off an over bet that felt like a bluff. Of course, no one will ever know what the guy had.
 
hurtadoak

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I think you played that hand well.
The mate above says that it is difficult to know because we do not know what hand our villain had.
I say that the way we play our hands depends little on the hand of our opponents and we should play them the same way over and over again.
Maybe I would have been a bit more aggressive with the bets by having seen the flush project on the flop, maybe the villain simply called to you because he thought you'd have high cards and seeing a low flop maybe he thought you were bluffing, however regardless of that, I would have been more aggressive since the flop.
 
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glennelson

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Maybe I would have been a bit more aggressive with the bets by having seen the flush project on the flop, maybe the villain simply called to you because he thought you'd have high cards and seeing a low flop maybe he thought you were bluffing, however regardless of that, I would have been more aggressive since the flop.

I thought that too but I also didn't want to lose him. Nothing worse than flopping the nuts and having everyone fold to a c-bet.
 
Gabinho12345

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If he has A4 ace on the river is a bad card for you. It's very hard for UTG to have a 4 unless he has 44 or A4s and maybe 54s.
 
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glennelson

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If he has A4 ace on the river is a bad card for you. It's very hard for UTG to have a 4 unless he has 44 or A4s and maybe 54s.

How? It doesn't improve him. He still has the 2nd nuts and if he does have A5, A2, A3 or A7 he made two pair. A 2, 3, 5 or 7 makes a possible boat and a 6 makes a possible higher straight. I guess what I meant is an A on the river is not a scare card no matter how much it helps him. You're right about it being hard for him to have a 4 UTG though and I did consider that, but when he didn't reraise on the flop I figured A4 to be more likely than 44.
 
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Gabinho12345

Gabinho12345

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How? It doesn't improve him. He still has the 2nd nuts and if he does have A5, A2, A3 or A7 he made two pair. A 2, 3, 5 or 7 makes a possible boat and a 6 makes a possible higher straight. I guess what I meant is an A on the river is not a scare card no matter how much it helps him. You're right about it being hard for him to have a 4 UTG though and I did consider that, but when he didn't reraise on the flop I figured A4 to be more likely than 44.

Yes, it's still 2nd nuts but any hand with 4 in it is now second nuts and if you bet non all in on the river he probably isn't going to raise for value which he would probably do if the river was K Q J 10 9 or 8. A is a good river for you but if he had exactly A4 then it's not a good river.
 
ScottieDuncan

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I would have bet more before the river. Villian may have thought you were bluffing with high cards, but, the all in was maybe a bit much.
 
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Try to put your opponent on a range of hands, rather than taking a stab at what specific hand he might have. For example, here he may have A4, two pair, a set, or an overpair like 88 or 99.
He could have A4, but chances are he doesn't.

Keeping that range in mind, to determine the most profitable bet size, consider how many chips will be in the pot if you win it, and estimate how likely he is to call.

For your bet of 6880, you would win 15040 (1280 in the pot + your 6880 + his 6880). Would he call that bet 20% of the time?

15040 * .20 = 3008 expected profit

If you made a pot-sized bet you would win 3840. Would he call that 75% of the time?

3840 * .75 = 2880 expected profit

This is an art, not a science. You need to consider the hands he might have, how willing he has been to put chips in pots in other hands, whether his call would effectively be for his whole stack, whether he will view you as a player who would make a giant bet without having the nuts. You are the only one who knows the answer to two of those questions.

That's all (it's a lot!) that you need to think about in cash games. As long as you have a healthy bankroll, you play cash games for as long as you like. Just make the bet that you estimate yields the most expected profit.

But in tournaments, the more chips you have, the less each chip is worth. The reasons why are complicated. You could read about ICM online for more information.
A stack of about 15000 is not worth sixty percent more than a stack of about 9300.

This means that if the expected profit amounts are similar, you should usually choose the bet size that the opponent is more likely to call. There are some exceptions, I think, but they probably don't apply here.
 
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glennelson

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Yes, it's still 2nd nuts but any hand with 4 in it is now second nuts and if you bet non all in on the river he probably isn't going to raise for value which he would probably do if the river was K Q J 10 9 or 8. A is a good river for you but if he had exactly A4 then it's not a good river.

Duh. Yes, I see what you mean. Of course.
 
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