Is this an awful fold?

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Hitaway4

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I'm pretty new to tournament poker online. Is this a stupid fold with top set? With 4 people still in the hand, Monotone board, is folding top set facing a 30BB All-in raise terrible? Of course, afterwards I see that the 30BB shove was 2nd set, but this seems like an awful shove by him IMO.



CO: 76.67 BB
BTN: 117.77 BB
Hero (SB): 75.95 BB
BB: 36.78 BB
UTG: 47.53 BB
UTG+1: 72.6 BB
MP: 41.98 BB
MP+1: 116.64 BB
MP+2: 33.85 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 8♣ 8♠

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (11.12 BB, 4 players) 7♦ 8♦ 4♦
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets 5 BB, MP raises to 39.35 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, UTG calls 34.35 BB

Turn: (89.83 BB, 2 players) 2♠

River: (89.83 BB, 2 players) K♥

UTG shows A♥ K♦ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 46%, Flop 30%, Turn 19%)
MP shows 7♣ 7♠ (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 70%, Turn 81%)
MP wins 89.83 BB
 
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300HPGOD

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This is a call because we need to think what villain would be doing this action with and also what hands villain would not be doing this with. I don't think villain would be jamming large when they have the nut flush. The reason for this is there is too much fold equity and they would not want other hands to fold if they held the effective nuts. So I think we can start the villains range at 9x diamonds and lower, two pair combos of 87,84, and 74, a made straight with 65, and also sets. Looking at this range more closely I think we can remove 84,74, and 9x diamonds smaller because they should not be calling a raise pre flop with these hands. 87 can be removed because we have 88 and that leaves one single 8 left in the deck. Would villain be calling a raise with 65 pre flop? Probably not although some 65 suiteds might make it in there but I doubt it. That leaves a set as there probable range and that also fits them just calling a raise pre flop. If the past few sentences of range analysis is wrong know that even if villain has what you fear, you still have roughly 33% equity because you have a draw to a full house. This is more than enough to make this situation a call.
 
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popstani

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300HPGOD said:
This is a call because we need to think what villain would be doing this action with and also what hands villain would not be doing this with. I don't think villain would be jamming large when they have the nut flush. The reason for this is there is too much fold equity and they would not want other hands to fold if they held the effective nuts. So I think we can start the villains range at 9x diamonds and lower, two pair combos of 87,84, and 74, a made straight with 65, and also sets. Looking at this range more closely I think we can remove 84,74, and 9x diamonds smaller because they should not be calling a raise pre flop with these hands. 87 can be removed because we have 88 and that leaves one single 8 left in the deck. Would villain be calling a raise with 65 pre flop? Probably not although some 65 suiteds might make it in there but I doubt it. That leaves a set as there probable range and that also fits them just calling a raise pre flop. If the past few sentences of range analysis is wrong know that even if villain has what you fear, you still have roughly 33% equity because you have a draw to a full house. This is more than enough to make this situation a call.
Click to expand...



I like all your analysis, and really respect your knowledge, but I have a question. Why villain would not have suited broadway hands in his range,J10, QJ... ? And, I agree with you, I would call, it’s hard decision, but still a call.
 
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1nsomn1a

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There is always a chance That your opponent may have nuts in a game situation, but the probability of this is not so great that you fold such strong hands.

Yes, there will be cases when you get caught on the opponent's flush, but at a distance this fold will not bring profit. Don't be afraid to take risks and don't be afraid to lose. Good luck!:)
 
Jon Poker

Jon Poker

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1nsomn1a said:
There is always a chance That your opponent may have nuts in a game situation, but the probability of this is not so great that you fold such strong hands.

Yes, there will be cases when you get caught on the opponent's flush, but at a distance this fold will not bring profit. Don't be afraid to take risks and don't be afraid to lose. Good luck!:)
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Spot on - in summary, your hand is simply too strong to fold. You see middle set getting it all in here without a problem. It is indeed a very wet and dynamic board texture - however at almost every level in the game, this is a call. When we do run into flopped flushes (which will be rare) - we do at least have some equity to fill up on them and make the best hand.
 
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1nsomn1a

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Jon Poker said:
Spot on - in summary, your hand is simply too strong to fold. You see middle set getting it all in here without a problem. It is indeed a very wet and dynamic board texture - however at almost every level in the game, this is a call. When we do run into flopped flushes (which will be rare) - we do at least have some equity to fill up on them and make the best hand.
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I'm talking about the same thing. The probability of a flop flush is less than one percent, plus we have at least seven outs to improve to full house or better, plus two identical cards on the turn and river can also give us a win. The fold is not profitable in such situations.
 
Jon Poker

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Just incase you happened to misinterpret my response - I was agreeing with and adding to your initial response.
 
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300HPGOD

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popstani said:
I like all your analysis, and really respect your knowledge, but I have a question. Why villain would not have suited broadway hands in his range,J10, QJ... ? And, I agree with you, I would call, it’s hard decision, but still a call.
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Thanks for compliment. I could be wrong but I am thinking that villain is treating those flushes the same way as ace high flush in that he would not want everyone to fold as he knows this big bet will likely do. We did see the other villain call with what would be an over diamond to QJ or J10 but that was a bad call in my opinion. Just don't see him making that bet unless it is a small flush but that is just my thought. Totally agree its possible the more I think about it and agree with you its still a call.
 
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rastapapolos

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Actually that remind me of a spot where i had AA, i raised from UTG x3, CO calls, and BB calls. Flop come Kxx all hearts. BB checks. I bet 70% of the Pot. CO calls. BB raises All-in. I knew at this point that he has one big heart at his range. so i called. and the CO calls too.
BB Ah3c
Me AA
CO Kx (no heart)
Turn was the fourth A
River Jh
BB who has both of us covered busted us out.
But on a colored board when you face an All-in most of the time it's a draw.
Me in your place i call.
 
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Transitley

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Agree with all the analysis and continuing to increase my knowledge of range application.

In ref to the original post re: middle set being a terrible shove, my interpretation is for protection believing that he has the best made hand - is your point that it is over 2.5x the pot?

I can see his logic but my knowledge of bet sizing is rubbish so interested on your thoughts.
 
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stil370

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Transitley said:
Agree with all the analysis and continuing to increase my knowledge of range application.

In ref to the original post re: middle set being a terrible shove, my interpretation is for protection believing that he has the best made hand - is your point that it is over 2.5x the pot?

I can see his logic but my knowledge of bet sizing is rubbish so interested on your thoughts.
Click to expand...
\

I agree with you Transitley, that is a tough call. But a call there in the long run is positive EV.
 
Dkerridge14

Dkerridge14

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Hitaway4 said:
I'm pretty new to tournament poker online. Is this a stupid fold with top set? With 4 people still in the hand, Monotone board, is folding top set facing a 30BB All-in raise terrible? Of course, afterwards I see that the 30BB shove was 2nd set, but this seems like an awful shove by him IMO.



CO: 76.67 BB
BTN: 117.77 BB
Hero (SB): 75.95 BB
BB: 36.78 BB
UTG: 47.53 BB
UTG+1: 72.6 BB
MP: 41.98 BB
MP+1: 116.64 BB
MP+2: 33.85 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 8♣ 8♠

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (11.12 BB, 4 players) 7♦ 8♦ 4♦
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets 5 BB, MP raises to 39.35 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, UTG calls 34.35 BB

Turn: (89.83 BB, 2 players) 2♠

River: (89.83 BB, 2 players) K♥

UTG shows A♥ K♦ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 46%, Flop 30%, Turn 19%)
MP shows 7♣ 7♠ (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 70%, Turn 81%)
MP wins 89.83 BB
Click to expand...


Yeah you have to take it all the way without doubt. Top set has good equity no matter what you’re up against. The positions where hey are playing from never really tend to have massive amounts of flushes in their range. Mostly going to see overpairs and odd AKs and MP you will be seeing much similar. Nothing at any point on the flop would be suggesting a fold
 
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fundiver199

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As others have said, this is a call, and especially so when you have everyone else covered, so that you are not even risking your tournament life. A lot of the time you will be against Ad jamming as a semibluff or a worse made hand jamming "for protection". And as others have also said, even if you are against a flopped flush or straight, you still have decent equity with 7 outs to fill up on the turn and 10 to fill up on the river. So your fold is indeed to nitty, while his jam with second set is the right play.
 
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