A,Q on the exact bubble

pokerstars Game #19150718344: Tournament #98354171,
$4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600) - 2008/07/27 - 17:56:25 (ET)
Table '98354171 10' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: jorandeman (31042 in chips)
Seat 2: 94ssimpala (8000 in chips)
Seat 3: Air Jodoin23 (9212 in chips)
Seat 5: switch0723 (4230 in chips)
Seat 7: aplupe (5499 in chips)
Seat 8: Matze SHL (16155 in chips)
jorandeman: posts the ante 50
94ssimpala: posts the ante 50
Air Jodoin23: posts the ante 50
switch0723: posts the ante 50
aplupe: posts the ante 50
Matze SHL: posts the ante 50
switch0723: posts small blind 300
aplupe: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to switch0723 [Ah Qh]
Matze SHL: folds
jorandeman: raises 1200 to 1800
94ssimpala: folds
Air Jodoin23: folds
switch0723:????

This is one of the 180 man sng's where 10-18th place just get double their buy in back, the real money is at the final table.

In the above hand, im 95% sure i have the best hand although my shove will definately be called, my current chip position is 16th out of the 19 remaining

Whats the best play here?? To shove and take a 60% shot at doubling up and making a go at reaching final table, while also taking a 40% chance of not cashing

or

to fold and fold to about an 80% chance of cashing and kinda giving up on a final table?

Nice tricky problem. If you are sure a shove gets called here, IMO, fold. We have all seen how the standings get all jumbled up once ITM, so never give up on the final table.

However, your m sucks here, and you may not see cards this good in time to save yourself. It would be interesting how the total chipstack list looked, being there is another table or 2 still going. If there were any that were shorter stacks than you, that would give credence to the fold hypothesis. If you are THE shortstack, I think You have to shove and pray.

To add to the trickiness of this hand is that if you fold u get 4 hands to look at before another critical decision is necessary, and while m considerations are valid, cash considerations are the counterpoint. It is extremely unlikely you could blind out from here without cashing, and as we have all seen, it might not even be the minimal cash.

By doing so you get a chance to see the flop. If somone then pushed all in - depending on how they have been playing, I may well call.

I agree with Maverick, you still have enough chips that if you flat call and have to fold you could still hang on to the money. But if you want to earn the real money youll have to take a stand soon anyway and this is a good time with the better odds and people especially gunning for short stacks they might play too loose..

sounds to me like you have answered your own question. The next question you need to ask yourself is am I trying to win the $8.00 for 18th or do I want to try to win. There is an argument for both positions. I dont see $8.00 as much motivation but who knows? It might be. You are in a shove or fold position here with 5ms or so. Anyone flat calling has some tournament stratigy books to read. Shove or fold based on your answer to the above question.

switch0723 said:

This is one of the 180 man sng's where 10-18th place just get double their buy in back, the real money is at the final table.

In the above hand, im 95% sure i have the best hand although my shove will definately be called, my current chip position is 16th out of the 19 remaining

Whats the best play here?? To shove and take a 60% shot at doubling up and making a go at reaching final table, while also taking a 40% chance of not cashing

or

to fold and fold to about an 80% chance of cashing and kinda giving up on a final table?

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You don't have enough information to solve the problem.

There are three people in the tournament with smaller stacks. You need EXACT COUNTS on their stacks. You can survive for about 3 more rounds of blinds folding everything. Your action depends on the size of your opponent's stacks and their positions at their respective tables.

You have 4 different hands to fold before you need to post your blinds again. Will one of those three smaller stacks be put all-in by their blind before you on this round or the next round?

In this situation, if the M of at least one of the smaller stacks is less than 2, check/fold and hope he DOESN'T double up. He's probably trying to just survive and will end up all-in on his blind. If multiple stacks have an M less than 2, all the better for you.

Your M is 3.25384... (4230/[900+400]). If all the smaller stacks are close to your M- figure about 2.8, appox. 3600 chips, or higher, than push. You don't stand a good enough chance of outlasting all of them (even if they double up as late as their last BB, you'll loose), and you aren't going to get a better chance to double-up.

The most likely situation is that the chip breakdown is something like,

You with 4230
VillA with 3900
VillB with 3600
VillC with 3120

I mean, that's the toughest situation you can be in. The difference between your stack and VillC is only 1110 chips, a very small number at these blind levels. And that's where position comes in... if VillC is UTG, you fold and try to outlast him.

Short stacked on the bubble, you want to have EVERY TABLE open, and you want to be next to a calculator and piece of paper.

You really stand a poor shot of making that final table. I'd say you're just trying to get ITM.




Postscript: online poker sucks. Are you really supposed to think all of that through in 45 seconds? Twirl some chips, brother.

you have to think of your stack as a weapon. Like a baseball bat every time you cut it in half it becomes less scarry to you villan. you have to shove it all at once or fold. 6 people at the table here AQ is huge Shove!!

syfted is correct here. Your spot is so bad you dont really need the rest of the info. I originally said you had an M around 5. I did not see the antes had started. he is correct your M is about 3.3. the only thing he and I both left out is the tablbe has 6 players. So to figure your effective Ms you will divide by 9 and multiply by 6. Your effective M is about 2.2. REDZONE play for sure. SHOVE SHOVE SHOVE

Lets just look at it this way you fold here 10 times: get blinded out two times,finish 10-18 six times(51$) and make a comeback and rech the final table 2times for a avrege of 71$(720-77=642/9=71) cash for a total of 193$.
U push and get called every time: 4times you are KO(0$),3 times u get 10-18th(24$) and 3 times u make the final table for avrege of 71$(214$) and total cash of 238$

Looking at it this way pushing is the more +EV option but since whe have no way of knowing how many times you will actualy make the FT,cash or even get called by a worse/better hand its a kinda pointless set up.

Im pushing here all day and going for bubble or 1st

Usually I like to take a risk and go out like a lion rather than a lamb, but your situation isn't actually that desparate here. You have no fold equity in this hand, I would have thought that you are probably ahead, but could be coin toss.

You have enough chips to go through BB ok, and you still have fold equity on a shove on the whole table (apart from big stack) for the next round at least, so i'd fold and hope someone goes in next 5 hands or so (which they should).

Definately don't just call though.

looking at villians stack, I would have to say that you may well be ahead here, due to the bully factor.
If he has been doing this too often, then I would take a stand here and just shove, With such a low M, these are the best cards you'll see.
If villian calls your shove, I would say you possibly have 2 overs to his medium PP(just a guess).
I talked myself into shoving this.

wow, quite a lot of discussion here. To the people who said call, that is the worst possible answer by a very very long way.

In the end i thought that well i want to reach the final table so ill have to double up at least twice, so i may aswell shove now and look to get one double up out of the way when im definately going to be called.

I did shove, the big stack called with something like k,t or k,9 something like that, and knocked me out in a cruel way by hitting a king on the river after i hit my queen on the turn.

I think my shove was ever so slightly the right move though

lololololololol some of you guys are so funny.. who here like flat-calling again?

w/o some kind of soul read on villain I snap-shove this.

MaverickUK said:

I would flat call

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really? he will be totaly comited if he does.
Leaving 3200 left and the pot at (atleast) 4200 and having no fold equity post flop and no chance of wining the pot with out hiting the A/Q.

This hands is rather intresting thou, i think All-in is the best move folowed by a close fold and way behind whe got calling.

I would probably shove here as well. He is probably making that sort of raise just because he has the chips to do so. Insta-shove.

jeff0120 said:

I would probably shove here as well. He is probably making that sort of raise just because he has the chips to do so. Insta-shove.

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have you actually read the whole scenario???

could someone explain to me what "your m" means? I see it everywhere but don't exactly follow

I had same hand and sim. situation on making final table vs just getting buyback. I shoved and got my buy in back. called by slick.
as for m..reference HOH (Harrington on Holdem) Its the new bible of poker books.

Lemlywinks said:

could someone explain to me what "your m" means? I see it everywhere but don't exactly follow

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Basicly its how many orbits you can survive, M= Stack/SB+BB+total antes

Justboo said:

Call is definitely the way to go!

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Can u atleast give some reason why comiting u preflop against a bully vilian thats not folding post flop is the best play?

depends on how your br is i would think if u still got a br and not depending on this cash, then i say call cause you are tring to make the fianl table where the real cash is at, if your br is low and you need a couple extra dollars then fold and wait for something better

^^ These questions have nothing to do with bankroll. Im a bankroll nit for starters so this is well within my brm, but thats not the point, the money isnt the issue here, its what the correct play is

I cant even take someone serious if they think there is another option. Shove is the only move. Flat calling is unthinkable. Id like to do a poll on this and have it broken down with +ROI opnions and -ROI opinions. I would be willing to bet my own bankroll that 90%+ of winning players would shove without much question based on your Ms.

If you're asking what the correct play is (not taking the money bubble into account), I'm pretty sure it's shoving, based on the strength of your suited hand, your M value, and range of hands the super-stack is liable to have. You made the right call and just had bad luck.

Flatting it is dumb here (seriously, calling here automatically makes you a donk in my eyes. You are committing half of your stack with a call, pot committal IMO). Shove if you want any chance of getting any profit from this 4.40/180, fold if you want to double your buy-in

16th out of 19 remaining .. 1 off the bubble. You're shortest stack at your table which means the other 3 SS's are at the other 2 tables. A call is out, but I would take the low road and let one of the other shorties go bye-bye. Especially since you're coming off the blinds and going into better positions and 1 more out will consolidate to 2 full tables.