$90 NLHE MTT: 20k gtd early. Would you call for tourney life here?

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Everybodylovesdeuces

Everybodylovesdeuces

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20K gtd big local tournament. It's early maybe like round 4. Starting stack at buy-in is 15k. Here's the history on the players who will be in the hand and their stacks:

Seat 1 - Unknown new player w/ around 15k

Seat 3 - What appears to be a total donkey/wild card. This is the first time I've played with him, but he will bet or call with as weak as 3rd pair on the river. He is in every other hand. His stack as expected has been swinging back and forth. Currently he has chips. About 26k.

Seat 4 - Good TAG. I've played with him a ton. I know he's capable of bluffing, or checking big hands on the turn but will also bet to protect big hands. Mostly plays straightforward and optimal. Has about 17k.

I have around 13k in seat 8 (we are 9 handed). Normally I play a LAGish style but with the wild card at the table on my left I've been playing more TAGy.
Blinds are around 150-300 no ante yet. I'm in BB w/ 8s6s

Seat 1 limps, seat 3 limps, seat 4 limps, SB folds, I check my option.. Pot $1,200

Flop is 8d6dTs. I check, Seat 1 bets $700, Seat 3 calls, Seat 4 raises to $2,100. He is very straight, super poker face I read it as very polarized. Seat 1 calls out of turn. I decide to flat. Seat 1 calls and not surprising seat 3 calls.

Pot is now $9,600. Turn Ac. I check, Seat 1 checks, Seat 3 checks, Seat 4 checks.

River Jh. I check, Seat 1 checks and looks totally disinterested now, Seat 3 bets 3k. Seat 4 goes all in for about 12k total. I have around 10k left. Seat 1 and 3 still to act behind me.

I've thought long and hard about this hand. Do you call here? Would you call if it was a re-entry?

I've left all my range analysis out so everyone can give their opinions to see if there's something I missed. I'll post my thinking below after I see all the responses.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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Shit spot. I think on the turn we could be happy getting it in because we could be facing draws. But on the river I think I let this go. Seat 4 doesn't sound like the type to shove this river as a bluff in a 4way pot; so I think it's a value bet and I don't think 1 pair is strong enough for a value river raise (if he is good and optimal like you say). I think he is most likely trying to extract max value from the bad player who already put chips in on the river. I would get out of his way.

He could have flopped a straight, flopped a set or turned or rivered a bigger 2 pair. You basically only beat like A9/A7 and it doesn't seem likely he would do this with that hand (especially on flop!)
 
naruto_miu

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Shit spot. I think on the turn we could be happy getting it in because we could be facing draws. But on the river I think I let this go. Seat 4 doesn't sound like the type to shove this river as a bluff in a 4way pot; so I think it's a value bet and I don't think 1 pair is strong enough for a value river raise (if he is good and optimal like you say). I think he is most likely trying to extract max value from the bad player who already put chips in on the river. I would get out of his way.

He could have flopped a straight, flopped a set or turned or rivered a bigger 2 pair. You basically only beat like A9/A7 and it doesn't seem likely he would do this with that hand (especially on flop!)


I'd say everything you said was pretty spot on, but curious would a tag player limp with A9/A7? If you believe that player would limp with such hands, than they can't really be all that "Tagish" correct, unless It's like A9/A7 suited, still I'd have to fold because theirs really not much you're beating besides 1 pair hands, and to shove Into 3 other players with only 1 player Is pretty gutsy to be honest, and would have to take a serious "Hero" type of read, knowing full well that a "Donkey/Maniac" Is In the hand+Seat 1 the unknown player,. and not to mention you who was In the BB, which that type of flop looks like a BB flop to be honest.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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I'd say everything you said was pretty spot on, but curious would a tag player limp with A9/A7? If you believe that player would limp with such hands, than they can't really be all that "Tagish" correct, unless It's like A9/A7 suited, still I'd have to fold because theirs really not much you're beating besides 1 pair hands, and to shove Into 3 other players with only 1 player Is pretty gutsy to be honest, and would have to take a serious "Hero" type of read, knowing full well that a "Donkey/Maniac" Is In the hand+Seat 1 the unknown player,. and not to mention you who was In the BB, which that type of flop looks like a BB flop to be honest.


No, I don't think a tight/good player would have played A9 or A7 that way, either preflop or on the flop. and I also rule out AK/AQ because he likely would have raised preflop. AJ/AT both would have mde a better 2 pair (but AJ is unlikely to have played that way on the flop). So, basically I am reaching to find any hands that we beat. possibly a busted combo draw? but again, I just don't really think he is bluffing into 3 players on this river when 1 has already put money in the pot (seat 1 seems interested, seems like he has SOMETHING he could call a bluff with).

our hero could actually be in 3rd place here. most likely though, bottom 2 is the 2nd best hand and basically functions as a bluff catcher in this spot.

Rebuy or freezeout doesn't really affect my decision either. When I'm looking at a flop, or possibly even the turn I might be a little more willing to "gamble" vs. a big combo draw etc. when there is still a rebuy....but once the river comes it seems to me just a simple calculation of figuring out if my hand is best or not.

I think that the number of times we're good is obliterated by the number of times we're beat in at least 1 spot...and while the pot odds are pretty good; We need to be winning 30% of the time to break even on a call here, and I just don't think we are. Since we only beat bluffs, to make this a good call we have to assume that he is bluffing here at least 30% of the time AND that seat 1 also has worse than bottom 2 pair. The likelihood of both things happening simultaneously doesn't justify a call, IMO.

IMO, if hero was willing to go to war with this hand (play for stacks) hero should have blasted the flop or the turn.
 
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