Haven't read the other opinions yet as I want to form my own read. Also since I played the event I know just how BAAAAD these players were and how little time you have to make chips.
So....first of all I like your
preflop raise. you may as well make it a little bigger than "standard" because so few people fold at 25/50 anyways you're going to get action, and just raising 125 or 150 you might get 4way action. well done.
"This was also my thinking, might as well go bigger with people being more willing to get involved."
Flop is also totally fine and standard. Although you block most anyone from having TP plenty of hands can continue and you can't let any diamonds peel for free. Also, I like the bet size as it denies proper odds to the draws and is small enough to get called by worse hands such as JT/JK
When he calls my flop bet I'm putting him on a J or diamonds. it's hard to put somebody on an ace when there is only 1 remaining. but it's remotely possible and it would be lovely if he had AJ or A7.
"Totally agree"
Turn: Again, I like the bet size as it gives the wrong price to draws and can also get called by worse hands. Let's not forget that we have the current nuts, so although our hand is somewhat vulnerable; extraction should be our main concern. You're just not going to have a ton of time to make chips. I think that was the right bet size.
River. that's a bad card but we cannot live in fear of the nuts all the time. Checking is the only reasonable option since it's hard to get called by worse if we lead out. Checking allows worse hands to value bet and possibly bluff, and allows better hands to value bet an amount we can consider calling or folding depending on our read. (never check raising...suicide).
He bets 1250 into 2650 or 47% of the pot. Honestly this bet size doesn't really inform my decision too much. some people bluff river for half pot (I do) and some people value bet for half pot. I think if he bet like 30-40% of pot it might be weighted more towards value....but also we can beat some of his value. (if he has AJ or 77 or JJ).
Should we call the river or not? You describe him as "splashy" but don't describe his skill level or aggression. if he is splashy, aggressive and bad I'd lean towards a call. if he is splashy, extremely passive and bad I'd lean towards a fold. if he is splashy, aggressive and good I'd lean towards a call. If you don't have those kinds of reads yet, then it's not an easy decision but I think I'm leaning towards call for the following reasons:
1) we beat all his bluffs and some of his value, we have the best bluff catcher
2) there is a limited amount of time to make chips in this tourney
3) if we call and are wrong we still have half a starting stack and 50bb which is workable. we'll also gain insight into his game. and any observant opponents at the table might think we're a calling station which could give us possible future bluff spots (this is less likely to occur in this structure with these bad players, but it's still a minor factor).
4)*as a female I have to be prepared to call more river bets as males tend to try and "bluff the girl."
"He was in the limited amount of time I had to observe him more on the aggressive side, but it was a very loose generalization."
yes, this is a particularly bad river card; but we can't live in fear of monsters under the bed. He could also have rivered 2 pair or just be bluffing.
COMBINATORICS:
let's think in terms of combos of value, combos of bluffs and compare that to the combos we beat.
AJ- 3 combos
JT- 3 combos
JJ- 3 combos
77- 3 combos
KQ- 16 combos. but it's just a gutshot....would a gutshot really call 2 streets? maybe. let's assign just 4 of the 16 combos of gutshots.
TT/55- 6 combos but would TT or 55 really play it like this? probably not but we'll assign 1 combo of other sets (not flopped sets).
2 diamonds. once you kill the 3 dead diamonds, there are 45 combos of 2 diamond hands. but we should discount a bunch of the crappiest ones such as 92, T5 etc. Also, the fact that the Ad is gone is good for us since most players are more likely to play Ad6d than Kd6d. In all I'd assume that maybe 30-40% of the combos of diamonds are likely or about 15-20 combos if you go all the way down to suited 1 gappers including 2d3d.
So, out of all the combos of "value" we are beating 13 combos and losing to 19-24 combos.
But we haven't factored in bluffs yet. We have to assume his bluffing range is higher than 0%. but how high? That is a judgement call. Let's say he's not bluffing very often only 10-15% of the time. that would be like 6 extra combos of bluffs.
So, now we're beating about 18 combos and losing to about 19-24 combos.
Let's throw in a few combos of some stupid bet where he thinks he is value betting, but it's just a random like KJ or something....or the other weird aces that ended up with 2 pair like A7, A5, AT. assign 3 total combos for ALL of those strange situations (which I think is fair).
now we're up to 21 combos that we're beating and 19-24 combos that beat us. And remember, this was with a relatively TIGHT bluffing range. Basically, it's 50/50.
POT ODDS:
now, let's look at the pot odds. 1250 to win 3,900 is a little better than 3:1. I think once you analyze the combinatorics against the pot odds it's a clear call. If he is NEVER bluffing it is a lot closer. and if we think he would play all the junky dimaonds like Jd4d and 9d2d then it's probably a fold.
But I just don't think most players play like that (always have the weird combos, and yet NEVER bluff).
In summary, it's a Crying call for me.
