This flop doesn't favor an UTG opening range. now, I admit that it hits the SB and BB harder than it hits the Button. But when you bet flop the SB and BB are not out of the way....they could still check raise.
but once they fold yes betting turn is safer than if SB or BB had called.
But that turn card is better for Button range than our range. we are specifically repping overpairs and sets at this point. which is fine but getting thin.
on river overpairs don't jam, or at least they shouldn't. so you're repping a straight or maybe a set. but what straights would have raised pre and bet all 3 streets like this? it just keeps getting thinner.
Apologies- I meant once SB and BB fold. Obviously if they re-raise I need to have a monster there to call.
With this sizing on the turn I am preparing to shove river if I get called . I think that overpairs would play this way on the turn. The turn didn't complete anything really relevant. I want to make maximum value from the drawing hands Button can have.
Once the pot is that large on the river- a good player (and this villain is ok), "should" shove/value bet with whatever he's got (if I check). So if I check - then what? I call with my OP and hope for the best? On the other hand if I shove/bet big I force the button to make a tough decision. Unless he has a straight, which is possible, but unlikely, he will have a tough decision calling (if I'm
bluffing) and if I do have the nuts/strong hand I make maximum value if he does call.
Also - have a look at the ranges people (so far) said they would call here with. Shoving an overpair here is very profitable.
oh and
and
,
and
would play exactly like this. At least I would. Especially when deep.
I used to play these boards exactly as you described and lately have been trying to approach them differently - hence this post.
Several times I stacked players who indeed called me with the ranges described, sometimes even with weaker holdings (3rd pair lol). Several times I was called on my bluffs. Yet in total not enough to make a decision if it is indeed better to play them this way.
What I did notice is that rarely do I get folds once the turn has been called and with this thread I'm almost convinced this is the better way to play OP and up but that bluffing is not wise on this board, at least not 3 barreling.
In this specific case I was bluffing. He called with 45o