$8.80 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: Bottom set on three card flush flop facing 2 shoves

T

trent32la

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Merge - $8.00+$0.80|<> NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 27.05 BB (VPIP: 26.44, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 88)
BB: 19.6 BB (VPIP: 16.55, PFR: 12.31, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 146)
UTG: 19.58 BB (VPIP: 21.65, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 232)
UTG+1: 15.4 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (MP): 19.52 BB
MP+1: 19.73 BB (VPIP: 14.75, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)
MP+2: 33.55 BB (VPIP: 25.49, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 102)
CO: 43.51 BB (VPIP: 19.72, PFR: 13.28, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 146)
BTN: 22.25 BB (VPIP: 21.82, PFR: 11.46, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 111)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has 5:spade: 5:club:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.1 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.6 BB, BB calls 1.1 BB

Flop: (7.2 BB, 3 players) 6:diamond: J:diamond: 5:diamond:
SB bets 24.85 BB and is all-in, BB calls 17.4 BB and is all-in, Hero .........

I have 17bbs behind. Can we ever fold here? SB is a fish and BB is a tight bad reg.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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I had a similar situation in a 1$ stt the other day except it was facing a 4 way shove otf

You have 7 outs to make a full house or 4 of a kind by the turn and 10 outs from turn to river, which I think puts you at about 35% to improve over a flush... And that's assuming you don't have the best hand already. As far as chips go, you've got the odds... As far as ICM goes, I'm not sure.

If SB is a fish, there's some percentage of the time he's shoving with 2pair, and if BB is bad nit, he might be calling some percentage of the time with high pocket pair. Of course their doing this a very small percentage of the time, but its enough to tip the odds in your favor.


I call.
 
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J

Joseph Havelka

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I'd call but I'm definitely not loving my situation
 
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WiZZiM

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don't really know without running it through equilab, but i can't see a fold being a great option here considering we have only 17bb.. also it looks like one of those really fast paced turbo games, so it probably has a horrible structure, which is even more reason to call this off.
 
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