$.75 NLHE MTT Bounty: Shove or min raise?

JBGoode

JBGoode

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 48.1/23.1/70.56

So last night, in a bounty Tournament I ran into a situation with an over aggressive, very loose player. I would like everyone's input here.


5 handed, Early to Middle Stage (2 levels away from end of Late Reg.), Current Position UTG. Blinds are 100/50/10


Me: Ad7d / VPIP 37.9 / PR 28.6 / AFq 60.00 / BB 49
MP: N/A / VPIP 27.0 / PR 2.9 / AFq 31.68 / BB 27
BUT: N/A / VPIP 24.1 / PR 13.8 / AFq 45.45 / BB 103
SB/Vil: N/A / VPIP 48.1 / PR 23.1 / AFq 70.59 / BB 45
BB: N/A / VPIP 19.4 / PR 9.4 / AFq 37.04 / BB 38


I raise 2.2 BB, MP calls 2.2 BB, BUT folds, SB/Vil calls 1.7 BB, BB Folds


Flop (Pot 8.1 BB, 3 Players Me, MP, SB/Vil)


Td8dJd


Now obviously I just hit a monster, completed flush, and a gut shot straight flush draw. So I'm obviously gonna just call the SB, or looking to check raise any other bets. Cause at this point I'm gonna try and get as many chips as possible in the middle without scaring anyone off.


SB bet the pot (8.1 BB), :D:D:D I just call (8.1 BB), MP folds


Turn (Pot 24.3 BB, 2 players Me, SB/Vil)


6s


HERE IS WHERE IM NOT SURE IF I MADE THE RIGHT PLAY. SB/Vil bets 10 BB.... I actually shove over the top with my remaining 38.4 BBs, SB/Vil folds.....


So lets go over my options, do I just call? Assuming they have at least completed straight or low flush (without a 9d or Qd or both they are drawing dead), 2 Pair is a possibility (giving them 4 outs to hit a boat), a set....NOW THAT COULD BE SCARY (10 outs to beat me), or they could already have be beat with a 9dQd (which would fall into their range based off how the hand was played so fair, and their stats). So.... 1:169 chance he has me drawing dead, 2:169 he has 1 out. So its obvious I'm ahead here, or the entire table is collecting a bad beat Jackpot (assuming I complete my straight flush of course). :D:D:D but the fact still remains, 10 outs if they have a set, and 4 outs if they are holding 2 pair. Keep in mind their stats say they have nothing, or a straight or low flush at the most when just glancing......:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:


Or do I tank for a min, and shove? (Exactly what I did)


What do you guys think?
 
Last edited:
C

clayvision

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I think its definitely correct, youre giving him a good price to continue drawing, and its going to be pretty tough to fold top pair or pair+draw type hands, and you dont want any card son the river to kill your action
 
87shorts

87shorts

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you should tank call and re raise on the river.. he can only beat you with one hand so you should let him try and bluff himself until he is pot comiited
 
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Mateo

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Yeah I would rather call that turn. There are very few cards that give you a tough river decision, and even in that case the chance of him betting three streets with a hand that improves with such a river card is very low. Calling gives you opportunity to let him bluff on the river. So I would say gives you higher EV overall
 
N

neptun1914

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In my opinion you have correctly shoved here. You already have 34BB in the pot. If you call you may get more at later stage but you are risking bad beat and there is no guarantee that he will bet or call anything on the river (especially if he is drawing and do not hit on the river).
 
wilpinsi

wilpinsi

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This is correct, it has all the information of its opponents, but we know that in many occasions this does not work, because the river arrives and takes everything away.
The best way this does not happen is to put the villain on the wall, so avoid taking unnecessary risks.
 
Lheticus

Lheticus

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Yeah, I definitely agree that slowing down would have been a bad idea there. It's never a bad thing when you win by folding. One thing I myself needed to learn to stop fixating on was the idea that big hands should always win big pots. It's just not how the game works--big pots are few and far between no matter what you have. You did what you could to grow the pot, and made the right plays.
 
elizeuof

elizeuof

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I would not have raised allin, I would rather pay only or raise 2x. I believe doing a shove only if the villain had a flush with K or Q high he would pay, or if he had a request for a straight flush, Maybe he could pay with 2 pairs or three of a kind, waiting for the possibility of complety a full house.
 
MrPokerVerse

MrPokerVerse

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Unless you are worried about the river beating your hand and with position on someone leading out, why not just call, that gives you 25BB on river. If they lead out on the river you will be able to get your remaining stack in. If they check, they missed or not going fire the last bullet on the bluff. Now you can raise to try to extract more.

Shoving all in on the turn, you cut the rope from them hanging them self. Calling the turn goes along more to the statement of " So I'm obviously gonna just call the SB, or looking to check raise any other bets. Cause at this point I'm gonna try and get as many chips as possible in the middle without scaring anyone off".
 
U

UncleConRon

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My Opinion

I would teraise the minimum. Just enough to keep him in the hand. Then if he calls. I would check. Seeing if he goes all-in. Hope he don't get his card and gamble.
 
JBGoode

JBGoode

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For everyone that said call, and see the river. This is not a mistake so to speak, but it is not the optimal play. I already knew that answer, and I was testing everyone else. Congrats to everyone that got it right.

This is why calling is not the optimal play....lets assume they have the set. On a realistic evaluation that is probably what they have with that board, cause having a set on the flop means you have just as many outs to hit a Full House as you opp would have to hit a 1 card flush. So why not bet big to put pressure on a player that has 1 card to the flush, or maybe even a completed flush. Add in the fact this guy is already overly aggressive, give you even more of a chance he is bluffing. Keep in mind this is a tournament, and its all about survival. So you gotta be slightly more pessimistic when evaluating an opp. In this situation he probably has a set on the flop, and the 70.59 AFq is just the added bonus to the call on the flop, because of the chance he is bluffing. Now after the turn, he slows down and bets slightly less then the pot with 10BBs....

Now its obvious he has a set, or hes scared, or both. At end of the day, double barreling at an 70.59 AFq doesn't really tell me if he has it or not. All I know is that I'm trying to maximize, and if he was confident enough to double barrel against me, I have to respect it, and put him on a set. Even if that is the case I am still WAAAAAY ahead at this point figuring he only has 1 more card to come....

but lets calculate the pot, If I just call leaving myself 28.4 BB left to play with on a 44.3BB pot... what happens if the board pairs, and he shoves? I only have him covered by 3BBs. While his betting pattern of this hand said FULL HOUSE the whole way through. So I fold to the strong possibility he just bluffed me based off his stats, when all I had to do was shove when I still had leverage to win the pot...

Some will say, "Well if he called the turn, and completed the full house you still would be down to your 3BBs."

and I reply to that with, "Your right, that's what calling is not a mistake figuring they still have less then 50% chance to pair the board, or get 4 of a kind of their set. On the other hand, if they are at a coin flip, or even less (according to theiR stats). If they call mY shove on the turn they are the ones gambling, not me. If I just call and the board pairs, and I'm forced to call a shove. I am gambling at that point."

Lesson of this story.....

Force your opponents to gamble.
 
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bkkblues99

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I personally would have tank called and then re-raised/shoved the river unless the board paired. On a paired board I would probably just go into call down mode.
 
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