$7 NLHE MTT: Donk betting slight overpair on paired board

fundiver199 said:

PokerStars, $6.37 + $0.63 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php
UTG: 1,528 (51 bb)
MP: 2,277 (76 bb)
CO: 2,617 (87 bb)
BU: 4,936 (165 bb)
SB (Hero): 3,306 (110 bb)
BB: 3,606 (120 bb)
Pre-Flop: (69) Hero is SB with 8d 8h
1 fold, MP raises to 90, 2 players fold, Hero calls 75, 1 fold
Flop: (234) 7h 7s 6d (2 players)
Hero bets 117, MP raises to 234, Hero calls 117
Turn: (702) 9c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 690, Hero calls 690
River: (2,082) 7c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 1,259 (all-in), Hero?

Tournament is a 7$ 18 man SnG on Pokerstars with 12 players left. 4 places pay. Regular speed with 10 min blind intervals.

Villain stats: VPIP 24 / PFR 20 over 25 hands.

I decided to go for a donk bet on the flop, because if I check-call, overcards will pop a ton of the time, and then I have no clue, if he is bluffing, or if he just got there. Surely up for debate, but this was my rationale.

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ssbn743 said:

We really need to try hard to have 0% calls from SB - You'll find it massively improves your game and win rate. We are going to find situations where calling from SB is acceptable, but those are going to be with hands like 9Js.... in other words, a very small number of combos.

I will admit that I myself have problems with these spots. This is a perfect case because even though we don't want to call, we're getting great set-mine odds with our pair and this is a SNG where the upside is enormous.

Now, we could 3-bet, but do we really want to do that OOP against a +1 range?

Hence the dilemma

I'm ok with the call in this spot since we're 100BB deep, but especially with a shorter stack, like say 40BB, I'd go for 3-bet/fold to 4-bet.

However, by calling we've turned our hand into a set-mine and a set-mine only - no donk bets, especially on a paired board. If I were villain here, I'd raise all donk bets knowing that they'll have to fold.

Check out this link and specifically, #2 on the list
https://upswingpoker.com/donk-bet-lead-flop-strategy

We need to check 100% of our range from the SB. Yes, it's true that over cards come on the turn often, but that's ok, we just play our hand accordingly. We're going to check/call flop. If the turn is a K (for example) we're going to have to check/call again.

Paired boards are an interesting topic honestly. But imagine if the flop was K76, we'd check/call that flop with 88 all day. 776K is equivalent to K76, especially when villain can never have a 7 unless it's two of them.

So, as played the turn is fine, except to say we've bloated the pot by donk-bet/calling the flop. As you'll notice we still have no idea where we're at and villain could still easily have us crushed.

As played, river is a fold - if he's bluffing you, it's a good play, but I'd take the same line with AKo here just because of the donk-bet - at some point, I'll be able to turn the heat up so high you won't be able to stand it.

So honestly, pre-flop this should have gone one of two ways:
1. 3-bet
a. Villain folds
b. Villain calls - lead 1/3 (Our paired board sizing) and play accordingly
c. Villain 4bets/fold

2. Call and Always check flop
a. Call
b. C/R (A pretty good option on this specific case IMO)

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