$7.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: Top set with QQ on a scary board. Can we fold?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/13/1.9

BB is a decent player. After the BB over shoves the flop, what can we do with a set of QQ on this board and the bounty in play? Call or fold? We are not ITM, I believe late reg just ended or was about to end.

Poker Stars, $6.69 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 70 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 14,110 (23.5 bb)
BB: 51,262 (85.4 bb) VPIP 27 PFR 13 Hands 90
UTG+1: 22,778 (38 bb)
UTG+2: 13,456 (22.4 bb)
Hero (MP1): 21,606 (36 bb)
MP2: 7,442 (12.4 bb) (New to table, only 3 hands)
MP3: 26,970 (45 bb)
CO: 29,651 (49.4 bb)
BTN: 25,083 (41.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q

Q

2 folds, Hero raises to 1,500, MP2 calls 1,500, 4 folds, BB calls 900

Flop: (5,430) T

Q

9

(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 3,584, MP2 raises to 5,872 and is all-in, BB raises to 49,692 and is all-in.


Hero?

Sick Hand!

BB The range possibly have KJ, 8J. It can isolate with flush draws, opensd x MP2, QQ locks overpair.
If the called, will be at best flipping.

Wouldn't fold here. I would put BB on two pairs/lower sets(not likely as TT/99 BB should have 3 bet) /KJ.

Even if BB made a straight, you have right pot odds to call with your remaining stack

I put the BB's range at Two pairs, (mainly 10 9), sets (10s, 9s), straights (the only hands that currently beat us J8 and KJ) and big draws like Flush + straight or flush draw+pair, (AJs or A9s).

Now against that range, top set is in decent shape.


At worst we are 1/3 dog. At best we are crushing two pairs and sets. Most of the time I think we are ahead.


Another factor was the stage & nature of the tournament. Cash is far away and this is the time build stacks so as to collect bounties + be in good shape to make a deep run.Also a bounty, albeit not that meaningful as it was a min bounty, was on the line. At least that's how I felt.

I don't think you can ever fold. BB can do this with pair plus draws, two pair, etc. You are often ahead and you have back up to a full house on the occasions you are behind. It's a cooler, it's a spot where you'll stack your opponents or will be out of the tournaments. Nothing you can do.

Yea that's pretty much what I felt too. But I was wondering if this similar spot comes up very deep or in a FT, would we still call it off with significant ICM implications? I think my answer will still be yes and I could very well be wrong about that.

Short answer: get it in and hope he has TT or 99 or JsTs. or As9s

Hands he can jam:2 pair, smaller sets, straights and combo draws. If he's tricky/crazy he can just apply big stack pressure with lesser hands such as bare nut flush draws.

you can't fold here. there is too much money in the pot and even if he has a straight right now you have 35% equity vs that. not to mention the times that they are somehow both on a draw and share eachother's outs. (rare....but...could happen).

as it stands you are getting 2:1 pot odds even if the other guy folds. if the other guy calls your pot odds are even better. getting 2:1 odds you only need 33.33% equity for a breakeven call and you're 35% equity vs the nuts. His range likely includes more than just the nuts; so you're even better off.

But most importantly, you are at the top of your range. If you are going to fold here....then are you literally only willing to stack off with the nuts? because if so, it's going to be tough to win a bounty tournament.

missjacki said:

But most importantly, you are at the top of your range. If you are going to fold here....then are you literally only willing to stack off with the nuts? because if so, it's going to be tough to win a bounty tournament.

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This is probably the soundest advice here. If you aren't willing to risk your stack with a monster hand like trip Q's, you'll never win a tournament.

missjacki said:

But most importantly, you are at the top of your range. If you are going to fold here....then are you literally only willing to stack off with the nuts? because if so, it's going to be tough to win a bounty tournament.

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Yea that's probably the best possible answer to my question. I mean I am pretty much always calling in this situation but your reasoning is absolutely spot on. Thanks!

I can’t believe I forgot to mention the bounty aspect (although you mentioned it in your post).

Because the big stack could potentially get 2 bounties he can definitely shove wider....such as nut flush draws.


The fact that you can get 1 bounty makes this an even better call for you. The earlier you are in a bounty tourney the more value the bounties have...so even though you’re somewhat likely to go out this hand the fact that you sometimes triple and make 1 bounty definitely outweighs that.

On flop after mp2 moves AI is in the pot (t5.4k+t3.6k+t5.9k) and after BB reshoves there is effective overall pot [(t14.9k+hero effective stack (t21.6k-5.1)], it means after reshove there is pot t14.9k+t16.5k = t31.4k and you have to call t16.5k.

pot odds are t16.5k/t47.9k = aprox 34%
odds that your hand improve is (7outs): 28%
odds that villain's possible draw improve: aprox 35% (flush); open ended straight aprox 32%

Make summary yourselve.

Always get this in.

Ambur said:

On flop after mp2 moves AI is in the pot (t5.4k+t3.6k+t5.9k) and after BB reshoves there is effective overall pot [(t14.9k+hero effective stack (t21.6k-5.1)], it means after reshove there is pot t14.9k+t16.5k = t31.4k and you have to call t16.5k.

pot odds are t16.5k/t47.9k = aprox 34%
odds that your hand improve is (6outs): 24%
odds that villain draw improve: aprox 35% (flush); open ended straight aprox 32%

Make summary yourselve.

Click to expand...

We have more than 6 outs to improve. 3 tens, 3 9s, 1 Q and a runner runner pair. That’s 7+a fraction for runner runner. So we don’t have 24% vs the nuts we have 34.9% equity.


I recommend everyone to have a poker equity calculator App on your phone like poker stove or poker cruncher or Equilab it makes these spots a lot easier to analyze.

missjacki said:

So we don’t have 24% vs the nuts we have 34.9% equity.

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For me it seems that we have odds to improve at best 7odds 999TTTQ , explain me where you get that 34.9 % ?

call instant , bb just try to isolate for bounty , so is simple call

HERO CALLS EVERY TIME!

One thing I learned playing poker is when it is your time to die, it just is!
Also you are not that deep in the tournament, and the bounty and those chisps are at stake. Also you are not drawing dead to any combo (even if you were you should call, people don't have the nuts every time) + 36BB deep not 150BBs

COME ON! Why does this thread even exist! there's always a new tourney later or tomorrow! I am not saying play loose and throw money but it would be a big mistake to throw this hand at this stage! only at the final table this could be questionable!

Sorry man for my agressiveness, but I can't communicate the importance of you calling EVERY TIME in another fashion!

GL

This might convince that calling is obvious :
The decent hands that will make a good player want to isolate the bounty are :
LOOSING TO YOU : TT / 99 / QT / Q9 / QJ / AQ / Ax spades / Jx spades
WINNING VS YOU : KJ

Do the maths then call every time! and you know what, you cannot be invincible!

Ambur said:

For me it seems that we have odds to improve at best 7odds 999TTTQ , explain me where you get that 34.9 % ?

Click to expand...

What ever the turn is, that card can reapeat in the in river, so 3 more outs (from the turn) mean extra 6% equity.

bkkblues99 said:

What ever the turn is, that card can reapeat in the in river, so 3 more outs (from the turn) mean extra 6% equity.

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I did not had time to reply so i do it now, since it is a bounty (In general) it is profitable decision to get it all in as it played.


But if it is not bounty you still have option to fold (as played), this decision should be more based on opponents you are against plus dynamics plus stack sizes and whoever say this is standard jam situation with bounty not involved i disagree. Bear in mind, you should always aim the first place in a tournament if you have some sort of edge over the field. imo

But i do not blame people (players) whome are going AI (as played) without bounty.

But honestly i do not fully understand the math behind those 3 outs. Some day when i have more time i will figure it out and make some calculations, but what you said looks logical that somehow you have more probability that i said above.

I think this is always a call, but it isn't easy.

You have the top set - you can behind the nuts on the flop but you are never drawing dead. I think a lot of the time you will be against draws and two pair type hands which balance out the times you are up against the straights.


The only time this might be a fold is in a final table / big pay jump scenario where there are shorter stacks that can bust before you.

Need call