$7.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: Bet river against seemingly passive villain's capped range?

mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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$7.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: Bet river against seemingly passive villain's capped range?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 150/300 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 25.26 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 44)
Hero (BTN): 58.49 BB
SB: 47.52 BB (VPIP: 38.18, PFR: 25.45, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 56)
BB: 20.56 BB (VPIP: 24.19, PFR: 16.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 843)

4 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.03 BB) Hero has 8<font color='black'>♣</font> 8<font color='red'>♦</font>

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 6.04 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.04 BB

Flop: (13.61 BB, 2 players) 7<font color='black'>♠</font> K<font color='red'>♥</font> K<font color='red'>♦</font>
SB bets 4.54 BB, Hero calls 4.54 BB

Turn: (22.68 BB, 2 players) 2<font color='black'>♠</font>
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (22.68 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='red'>♦</font>
SB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, ...

...fold

Hero wins 22.68 BB


It seems like villain caps his range here by checking back the turn. although he has agressive preflop stats, he has a low AFq over a small sample. against a passive player, checking the turn would cap his range, taking out all of his Kx and leaving mostly pocket pairs, spade draws and air.

although this is a small sample, and if the AFq is not true to this player and he is actually an aggressive player, then checking back would still cap his range, but it would also take out a lot of weaker hands too, as he would barrel with both his nutted hands for value and any draws and air as bluffs, checking back his medium pocket pairs for showdown value

I think the question is, does he fold enough better hands 99 TT or call with enough worse hands A7 66 etc. to justify betting this river?

I think I was looking for calls from A7 66 and 55 at the time, but im not sure if those hands call even sizing that small on this board after I call the flop bet. It seems like he just gave up after I called the flop cbet.
 
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trent32la

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Pretty easy check down here in my opinion and you have some misconceptions.

Checking this turn does not cap V's range at all. V should be checking close to his entire range here, and a bet would be a lot more weighted towards complete airballs or semibluffs, such as JTss. If you truly do believe villain is capped when checking this turn, then why are you checking back instead of betting small for protection/thin value?

On the river you're going for extremely thin value. V never folds 99-QQ/AA and it's very unlikely he 3bets and takes this line with any hand containing a 7 or a low pocket pair and also calls a river bet (you are never bluffing to this size or checking back the turn with no SDV.)
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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great points.

I think the reason his range is capped is because when i call the turn I'm showing that I have some equity on this board. I think a passive player who plays fit or fold and maybe just learned what a cbet is, just gives up if they dont have a nutted hand but continues with a strong hand. for an aggressive player, i think the idea that a second barrel is weighted so much toward air when ive shown that I have enough equity to call one street is exactly the reason an aggressive player should continue with Kx when the turn changes very little. maybe in that case I'm giving him too much credit but his stats, although a low sample, show that he is a loose passive player who maybe knows how to cbet.

I agree that the check back on the turn doesnt necessarily cap his range, but I think it weights his range away from Kx.

I think you're definitely right that if that is the case then betting the turn for thin value/protection is better than betting the river. Betting the river, we dont get any value from draws, which is going to be the best hands we get value from.
if i give villain a range of 66+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+ J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+ on this turn, he probably folds 50% of that range to a turn bet then we have 21% against the hands he calls with (77+, A2spades+, AK, K7s+, KTo+, Q8spades+, J9spades+, T9spades) but if we cap his range, taking all the kings out of his range we're still only 34% against the range of hands he doesnt fold to a turn bet, so I think you're definitely right that checking down is the best option.
 
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