mbrenneman0
Legend
Silver Level
$7.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: Bet river against seemingly passive villain's capped range?
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 150/300 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 25.26 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 44)
Hero (BTN): 58.49 BB
SB: 47.52 BB (VPIP: 38.18, PFR: 25.45, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 56)
BB: 20.56 BB (VPIP: 24.19, PFR: 16.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 843)
4 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.03 BB) Hero has 8<font color='black'>♣</font> 8<font color='red'>♦</font>
fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 6.04 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.04 BB
Flop: (13.61 BB, 2 players) 7<font color='black'>♠</font> K<font color='red'>♥</font> K<font color='red'>♦</font>
SB bets 4.54 BB, Hero calls 4.54 BB
Turn: (22.68 BB, 2 players) 2<font color='black'>♠</font>
SB checks, Hero checks
River: (22.68 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='red'>♦</font>
SB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, ...
It seems like villain caps his range here by checking back the turn. although he has agressive preflop stats, he has a low AFq over a small sample. against a passive player, checking the turn would cap his range, taking out all of his Kx and leaving mostly pocket pairs, spade draws and air.
although this is a small sample, and if the AFq is not true to this player and he is actually an aggressive player, then checking back would still cap his range, but it would also take out a lot of weaker hands too, as he would barrel with both his nutted hands for value and any draws and air as bluffs, checking back his medium pocket pairs for showdown value
I think the question is, does he fold enough better hands 99 TT or call with enough worse hands A7 66 etc. to justify betting this river?
I think I was looking for calls from A7 66 and 55 at the time, but im not sure if those hands call even sizing that small on this board after I call the flop bet. It seems like he just gave up after I called the flop cbet.
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 150/300 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 25.26 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 44)
Hero (BTN): 58.49 BB
SB: 47.52 BB (VPIP: 38.18, PFR: 25.45, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 56)
BB: 20.56 BB (VPIP: 24.19, PFR: 16.50, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 843)
4 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.03 BB) Hero has 8<font color='black'>♣</font> 8<font color='red'>♦</font>
fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 6.04 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.04 BB
Flop: (13.61 BB, 2 players) 7<font color='black'>♠</font> K<font color='red'>♥</font> K<font color='red'>♦</font>
SB bets 4.54 BB, Hero calls 4.54 BB
Turn: (22.68 BB, 2 players) 2<font color='black'>♠</font>
SB checks, Hero checks
River: (22.68 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='red'>♦</font>
SB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, ...
...fold
Hero wins 22.68 BB
Hero wins 22.68 BB
It seems like villain caps his range here by checking back the turn. although he has agressive preflop stats, he has a low AFq over a small sample. against a passive player, checking the turn would cap his range, taking out all of his Kx and leaving mostly pocket pairs, spade draws and air.
although this is a small sample, and if the AFq is not true to this player and he is actually an aggressive player, then checking back would still cap his range, but it would also take out a lot of weaker hands too, as he would barrel with both his nutted hands for value and any draws and air as bluffs, checking back his medium pocket pairs for showdown value
I think the question is, does he fold enough better hands 99 TT or call with enough worse hands A7 66 etc. to justify betting this river?
I think I was looking for calls from A7 66 and 55 at the time, but im not sure if those hands call even sizing that small on this board after I call the flop bet. It seems like he just gave up after I called the flop cbet.
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