$66 NLHE MTT: $$66 NLHE MTT: JJ vs raise and 3bet

trent32la · Jan 6, 2018

Rarely play anymore and pretty much never post hands, but thought this was a pretty interesting spot.

Around 25 left in the WPN $66 30k. The opener has been playing extremely tight, raising 1/21 times from EP/MP. The 3bettor is a high stakes whale who has been playing overly aggressive preflop, opening 8/12 times and 3betting 1/7 times. He has not been very aggressive postflop however, cbetting 0/3 times and checking back some flops he should be cbetting with all his air. Has has folded to 3bets 2/3 times.

What's the play here? Fold? Flat? 4bet/call opener and 4bet/fold to the 3bettor?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 6,000/12,000 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 32.38 BB (VPIP: 15.25, PFR: 8.77, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 60)
CO: 28.7 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
BTN: 52.32 BB (VPIP: 47.62, PFR: 47.62, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 21)
Hero (SB): 55.83 BB
BB: 25.1 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 14.81, Hands: 72)
UTG: 15.27 BB (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 47)

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has Jh Jc
fold, MP raises to 2.55 BB, fold, BTN raises to 5.27 BB, Hero.......

Cheers.

MaSSive_1 · Jan 7, 2018

Its Btn vs hj 3bet, I just shove here. Guy being tight on 60hands can still be variance.

You are still doing okay by shoving with all the money in the middle.

I dont want to 4b/f vs btn with JJ especially vs someone who you say is playing over agg pf. Shoving is def the most ev+ here, ofc its not fist pump get it in but okay.

uavissar · Jan 7, 2018

I call. I'm not risking a 50BB stack to win 9bb as I don't see MP calling with 1010 there. Best case AK. Whale is weak post flop and I can take advantage of that, although oop. Furthermore he is pretty deep.
If MP shoves I fold, lost 4bb.

MaSSive_1 · Jan 7, 2018

uavissar said:
I call. I'm not risking a 50BB stack to win 9bb as I don't see MP calling with 1010 there. Best case AK. Whale is weak post flop and I can take advantage of that, although oop. Furthermore he is pretty deep.
If MP shoves I fold, lost 4bb.

Lets not risk anything and not play at all then. You are looking at these spots wrong. There is ev+ and ev-, folding is ev-.

Calling is winning for sure if you are decent posflop but shoving is highest ev gain. Poker is not a risk free buisness. Money is in top3 places, doesnt matter if we bust now or 10th. We should play to maximise Cev at this point of the tournament, ICM is not a factor still.

uavissar · Jan 7, 2018

MaSSive_1 said:
Lets not risk anything and not play at all then. You are looking at these spots wrong. There is ev+ and ev-, folding is ev-.

Calling is winning for sure if you are decent posflop but shoving is highest ev gain. Poker is not a risk free buisness. Money is in top3 places, doesnt matter if we bust now or 10th. We should play to maximise Cev at this point of the tournament, ICM is not a factor still.

There is a huge difference between risking all my chips and risking 5 BB. According to your logic, I can shove anything there- that's a winning play with all the dead money in the middle....I'm pretty sure you don't mean that.

In this specific scenario, with the players OP described, I think calling is more profitable because of the post flop edge OP has, especially on the whale. In a different scenario, maybe shoving is better. I don't believe in a "one solution fits all".

MaSSive_1 · Jan 7, 2018

uavissar said:
There is a huge difference between risking all my chips and risking 5 BB. According to your logic, I can shove anything there- that's a winning play with all the dead money in the middle....I'm pretty sure you don't mean that.

In this specific scenario, with the players OP described, I think calling is more profitable because of the post flop edge OP has, especially on the whale. In a different scenario, maybe shoving is better. I don't believe in a "one solution fits all".

Excuse me but where did I say to shove everything? I was talking about JJ.
Its tournament poker you have to 'risk' all your chips sometimes when its the correct play.

https://gyazo.com/d74da58a115117d5b5520db764934e26

I gave mp absurd range of 14% open and btn 8% 3b range and shoving JJ is profiting 2.44bb , basicly printing money. And I think these ranges are absurdly tight and almost never happen in real life so imagine how much we are printing vs normal ranges.

Alucard · Jan 7, 2018

Pretty interesting spot for me as well which I'm not sure of.

I'm not very happy flatting here due to position.
Not happy 4betting due to MP's image, stack size & opening size & also BTN doesn't look like the folding type with any ace rags.

But 4bet folding to MP shove or calling BTNs shove seems like the most valid option for me IMO.
Once again I'm not sure about the mathematically most profitable option.

trent32la · Jan 7, 2018

Tournament life needs to be taken into account here. I have 50bb+ with the softest table in the tourney and would rather not jam it in, in a marginal spot especially given how tight the opener has been and the 3bettors small sizing and who he is 3betting.

The main issue with 4B/fold here is we are turning our hand into a bluff. There’s plenty of better hands we can do that with (A2-A5s, AQ).

MrSamsa · Jan 7, 2018

trent32la said:
Rarely play anymore and pretty much never post hands, but thought this was a pretty interesting spot.

Around 25 left in the WPN $66 30k. The opener has been playing extremely tight, raising 1/21 times from EP/MP. The 3bettor is a high stakes whale who has been playing overly aggressive preflop, opening 8/12 times and 3betting 1/7 times. He has not been very aggressive postflop however, cbetting 0/3 times and checking back some flops he should be cbetting with all his air. Has has folded to 3bets 2/3 times.

What's the play here? Fold? Flat? 4bet/call opener and 4bet/fold to the 3bettor?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 6,000/12,000 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 32.38 BB (VPIP: 15.25, PFR: 8.77, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 60)
CO: 28.7 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
BTN: 52.32 BB (VPIP: 47.62, PFR: 47.62, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 21)
Hero (SB): 55.83 BB
BB: 25.1 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 14.81, Hands: 72)
UTG: 15.27 BB (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 47)

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has Jh Jc
fold, MP raises to 2.55 BB, fold, BTN raises to 5.27 BB, Hero.......

Cheers.

Isn't it a shove no matter what this deep in the tourney? Its likely a flip with the MP's AK/AQ -the whale has whatever. If either has QQ+ its a shame but that's around a %5 possibility.

Can you just call here ever? It seems like folding is out of the question.

MaSSive_1 · Jan 7, 2018

trent32la said:
Tournament life needs to be taken into account here. I have 50bb+ with the softest table in the tourney and would rather not jam it in, in a marginal spot especially given how tight the opener has been and the 3bettors small sizing and who he is 3betting.

The main issue with 4B/fold here is we are turning our hand into a bluff. There’s plenty of better hands we can do that with (A2-A5s, AQ).

U cant give up the equity of JJ by 4b/f. If its super soft table, fine - call.

darthdimsky · Jan 7, 2018

Depends on your table image with the MP I believe. For someone with 60 hands I'd 4b fold to MP jam. I figure I'll be able to get better spots later on with 40bbs still.

MaSSive_1 · Jan 8, 2018

There is no way to 4b/f if you are sizing the 4b correctly vs mp's stack. You can not put 13bb-15bb and fold to 17-19bb more with this hand when he is shoving all combinations of AKo/AKs.

darthdimsky · Jan 8, 2018

Thoughts on a light 4b to 9-9.5bb?

For a call MP will have to commit 6.5-7bbs more into a pot of 18.92-19.42bbs with 2 people to act.
He's getting pots odds of 27-30% to call but he's got 2 people to act afterward.
Thought BU is loose as hell MP's got to realise you're committing to a 4b with a strong hand.
I don't imagine he'll simply call committing 22/23% of his stack with 2 more people in the pot.
He's going to have to Jam or fold. He jams you're left with 40-40.5bbs to continue the rest of the tourney.

A fold from the MP will iso the loose BU though. He'll still get a good price to call. It's much easier to take advantage of his passive post flop play for the high probability of winning the pot.

Note: That thought process was word vomit and may have a few obvious outcomes. I'm no expert. Just my 2 cents and hopes for learning if and how my thought process is incorrect.

darthdimsky · Jan 9, 2018

Trent - how would you analyse the hand? Really interested in your 2 cents

trent32la · Jan 9, 2018

The 3bettors sizing and who he is 3betting was suspicious. I wouldn't expect him to be light here too often. JJ in this spot is too strong to 4B/fold, too weak to 4B/call, and too high variance to 4B shove. I also don't think the 3bettor is 5bet shoving any worse hands other than AK and will play honestly postflop.

TT/JJ would go into my flatting range here. QQ is very close, but I think I would flat as well. KK+ I would 4bet to 13bb, and AK I would just shove. 4B bluffs if we choose any in this spot, would be A2-A5s and AQ/KQ.

liuouhgkres · Jan 9, 2018

Agree completely with trent's analysis, the only difference being I would probably shove kings too.

MoryMorte · Jan 9, 2018

First it's good to see trent around. hats off to him.

If we only consider ICM and EV, it's a clear shove. I don't think we even need to run ICMizer here. I probably shove with a grain of salt b/c MP might have woken up with QQ+/AK which we are not doing good against but if MP calls, most probably the Whale will call too and we make a side pot and at least win our money back. So, we are kinda freerolling.

Other kinda creative (read fishy lol) option can be but a min 4-bet to get rid of the MP if s/he doesn't have a premium and make the pot heads up with our yummy fish. If MP shoves we can fold and wait for a better spot. That sucks but we collected our information and payed for it.

MoryMorte · Jan 10, 2018

Ok. So I just ran the situation in ICMizer. JJ is slightly +EV (1.01% EV diff - $ EV is +$301) then I wouldn't risk my tournament on it unless this is a tournament I'm playing regularly and with the chips I'm getting I can lock top 3 finishes by abusing my big stack.

You can see the ranges I assigned in the pic also.
Result:
https://imgur.com/a/wnZqq

This is a really interesting spot and it happens quite often. My poker study buddy and I used to pass on these marginal situations but right now we take them all. Shove it in their faces lol. I'm interested ro see where this thread goes.

Alucard · Jan 10, 2018

Ok a little question.
The same scenario happens with you holding AK. But very early in the tourney.
Would you still shove there???

Takes me back to a bit similar hand I posted a while back

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-hand-analysis-51/11-nlhe-mtt-bounty-whats-move-348573/

uavissar · Jan 10, 2018

Alucard said:
Ok a little question.
The same scenario happens with you holding AK. But very early in the tourney.
Would you still shove there???

Takes me back to a bit similar hand I posted a while back

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-hand-analysis-51/11-nlhe-mtt-bounty-whats-move-348573/

Early in the tourney we'd be much deeper so there should be room for 4b/f if needed (also taking into account the depth has some impact, though small, on the villains' ranges). So I would 4b.

MaSSive_1 · Jan 10, 2018

MoryMorte said:
Ok. So I just ran the situation in ICMizer. JJ is slightly +EV (1.01% EV diff - $ EV is +$301) then I wouldn't risk my tournament on it unless this is a tournament I'm playing regularly and with the chips I'm getting I can lock top 3 finishes by abusing my big stack.

You can see the ranges I assigned in the pic also.
Result:
https://imgur.com/a/wnZqq

This is a really interesting spot and it happens quite often. My poker study buddy and I used to pass on these marginal situations but right now we take them all. Shove it in their faces lol. I'm interested ro see where this thread goes.

Possible to put clearer pic plz? How is JJ slightly Cev+? You put with ICM calculations or just Cev? Icm shouldn't be taken into account yet. With most tight ranges I put in HRC it shows 2.3bb/27,600chipa profit on a shove which is really big deal and not marginal/slightly ev+

MoryMorte · Jan 10, 2018

MaSSive_1 said:
Possible to put clearer pic plz? How is JJ slightly Cev+? You put with ICM calculations or just Cev? Icm shouldn't be taken into account yet. With most tight ranges I put in HRC it shows 2.3bb/27,600chipa profit on a shove which is really big deal and not marginal/slightly ev+

I used default WPN tourney in ICMizer for payouts. I don't think we are far from the bubble so ICM plays a role. (If we are not already ITM)
If you use a PC the pic is clear.
Here is a zoomed in picture:
https://imgur.com/a/uuz4q

and ranges:
https://imgur.com/a/3zdXZ

Let me know if you disagree...

MaSSive_1 · Jan 10, 2018

MoryMorte said:
I used default WPN tourney in ICMizer for payouts. I don't think we are far from the bubble so ICM plays a role. (If we are not already ITM)
If you use a PC the pic is clear.
Here is a zoomed in picture:
https://imgur.com/a/uuz4q

and ranges:
https://imgur.com/a/3zdXZ

Let me know if you disagree...

Not sure I am reading this correctly since i dont use ICMizer but HRC, did you give hj opening range of 9% only?

btn 3b is 20%?

if its really 9% i just can not see how this can be correct ..

No way someone is opening this range from HJ

https://gyazo.com/888c4838b7fb2178775da0a7b37d5702

I dont see it happening anyway

*About ICM i think we should not care about that too much until last two tables and play mostly for Cev+.

MoryMorte · Jan 10, 2018

MaSSive_1 said:
Not sure I am reading this correctly since i dont use ICMizer but HRC, did you give hj opening range of 9% only?

btn 3b is 20%?

if its really 9% i just can not see how this can be correct ..

No way someone is opening this range from HJ

https://gyazo.com/888c4838b7fb2178775da0a7b37d5702

I dont see it happening anyway

*About ICM i think we should not care about that too much until last two tables and play mostly for Cev+.

I gave MP the cards that an extremely tight player would open late in tourney and BTN based on being an aggressive whale. (All pairs, suites aces, bigger aces, suited connectors)
Let me know what would be the range you assign.

It’s a guaranteed tournament so I assume pay outs should be around 20-30 players so we are close to bubble.
If Trent gives us number is players get paid and average stack sizes I can run a more accurate simulation.

Also, please give me the over call ranges.
If we shove, MP calls with what range and BTN calls with what.

I want to see what is your perspective here and draw a conclusion. I face this kind of spot all the time and recently I’m shoving 88+ and it’s inserting a lot of variance in my results.

On the other hand, when I get good amount chips this late and close to bubble, I abuse the hell out of table and the dead money so I can be sure I’m going for a big cash instead of ending up 5-17 place.

playinggameswithu · Jan 10, 2018

I would 4 bet to find out where you are at.If they insta jam I would folds as jacks are really pockets 11's. Their are so many hands that have at least 30% equity against jacks. Flatting is a worse option as if no overs come you are stuck calling 3 value streets of betting. Hence why jacks are tricky to play.

$66 NLHE MTT: $$66 NLHE MTT: JJ vs raise and 3bet

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