$580 NLHE MTT: JJ on bubble of WSOPC

We're dealt JJ UTG +1 we are hand for hand on the bubble of a WSOPC MTT $580 buy-in. There are two tables of 8, 15 get paid. We have aprox 20bbs. There are two short stacks one two to my left and the other is at the other table. Both have 3-5bbs. We only just combined the tables (three people busted almost all at once so we were 3 tables before this) I only know a couple people at this table so we have no real read on anyone's play other than this field is in general sort of tough. It's a lot of agro LA cash grinders and wsop Circuit Grinders. Personally I am not trying to ladder into a min cash. I have traveled to come play these event to ring hunt. Still interested what everyone would do w/JJ here.

If the blinds are high, i would raise 3BB and see who calls, then if anything over J's on flop, just call a raise if someone raises in case he is trying a steal. If flop is under J's and not 2 wet, i would raise 75% of pot.
Let us know what you did.

lovemiscou said:

If the blinds are high, i would raise 3BB and see who calls, then if anything over J's on flop, just call a raise if someone raises in case he is trying a steal. If flop is under J's and not 2 wet, i would raise 75% of pot.
Let us know what you did.

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What if you bet 3bb and get raised or shoved on?

Alternatively if we just get called do we lead any flop below a J? How much? What if just one over card? Do we check and fold if they bet?

I'll wait a couple days for responses and then post what happened.

I'd probably open shove. 20BB will mean an M of around 12. You don't want to open for the standard 2.2x and have to make a decision if you get shoved on by a bigger stack. You don't want to open for 3.5x, get called and see a flop with an A,K,Q on it and have to decided between shove & check, leaving the door open for an LP caller to shove. If I was only interested in cashing, I'd fold JJ here. The blinds and antes are very important here to making a deep run, so yeah I'd shove.

Opening 3bb or open jamming off 20bb sounds terrible and is playing scared.

I'd open to 2.1x here and re-evaluate, if we do get 3bet, it depends.

Jillychemung said:

I'd probably open shove. 20BB will mean an M of around 12. You don't want to open for the standard 2.2x and have to make a decision if you get shoved on by a bigger stack. You don't want to open for 3.5x, get called and see a flop with an A,K,Q on it and have to decided between shove & check, leaving the door open for an LP caller to shove. If I was only interested in cashing, I'd fold JJ here. The blinds and antes are very important here to making a deep run, so yeah I'd shove.

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What would you get called by when you open shove 20BB that you are happy about? I doubt any serious players are calling with 10,10 or worse, which leaves you picking up blinds and antis most of the time, and when you get called you're flipping at best or crushed. I think 2x open and risk having to fold if 3bet is less risky than the jamming option. On fewer BB It makes sense, but you want to get some chips out of worse hands pre instead of scaring everyone away. Just my opinion, but then I'm no pro.

Ring hunting FTW! But no reason to shove or play hand fast. In this spot - cashing does matter, but you don't have to nit it up. Open your JJs to 2.2 to 2.5 x the bb. Play your hand like you normally would.

If you get 3b, play it according to the situation. If its a big stack and you get the feeling he's a good player and doing it light, 4bet shove. If guy has a medium stack or close to your size, I doubt their is any fold equity so you jamming, he is calling. So fold it unless you get the sense he is stealing.

If it's a short stack, snap call.

Folding pre is worst.
Shoving pre is next.
Limping is kinda awful, but if you did this, and someone makes it 4 bbs pre, you could call and see a cheaper flop... just an idea
Raising 2.2 -2.5 bbs, is best pre.

I need to see flop to see what i'd do next.

2.5x. Pray the short stacks get it all in. Fold to a 3bet. Depending on board texture cbet. They way you talk seems like you don't get out of line. Therefore your table image is prob pretty solid. UTG raise screens strength. JJ is not the exception. Because of this is why I would fold to a 3 bet. Assuming at this point you are
Playing with competent players

You have to play it but in a passive way you will not always see JJ so you have to aristotle a bit

I would go with 3BB bet. If there is a 3-bet, it depends very much on the player, who did it, but mostly it's a fold, except for the short stack.

If there is a call, depending on the flop you may do a 75-80% pot bet up to 100 % pot bet with a low cards board or just to raise half pot bet (4-5 BB) with a A,K, Q coming down and if the guy/guys didn't fold, you may check/fold from there on. You still will be left with 12-13 BB, which is better than the short stacks.

I'm making these assumptions
1) I'm not a tourn grinder looking to realize my cEV into $$$
2) A min-cash is not a significant amount of $$ to my bankroll

At this stage my M is between 12-10, the blinds and antes are a significant amount relative to my stack. Position is everything when the tournament is hand-for-hand on the bubble. Big stacks in LP are looking for middle stacks to put pressure on them, make them have to make tough decisions. My stack size makes me one of the biggest targets at the table. Large stacks want the bubble to be a large number of hands so that they can pick off chips from the mid-stacks. If I make a standard open, 2x-2.2x, I'm giving the green light for a big stack to pick on me, especially opponents that don't know how I play. I can be 3-bet or flatted and the flop is going to have overs a large % of the time. A larger open, 3x-3.5x etc., makes no sense, it won't change a decision by a LP large stack about trying to get me out versus a smaller open.

By shoving, I leave large stacks no way to put pressure on me. They have to go with their reads and some won't have any yet. Midstacks with premium hands even up to KK are going to have a tough decision to make a call. You'll even see midstacks that highly value just cashing make a laydown with AA. If I get called by the shorty I'm not going to be unhappy. I think large stacks may even tighten up their calling range to AA/KK. Being able to win the blinds+antes 1-2 times during the bubble will be huge for me once the bubble bursts versus dropping my M below 10 by folding or opening and having to fold.

does anybody whos still in the hand have a stack cover yours?

Yes there is a short stack on your direct left with 3-5 bb.

You are in early position, you should open small. 2bb. You mentioned that you don't want to finish for a min cash. This is a hand worthy of 4bet shoving if a blind 3bets you or the short stack shoves. Otherwise getting 3bet when you open from early position should equate a JJ fold.

The only other option is limping in and back raising because:
A: Disguise your hand and induce a lighter squeeze by bloating the pot from short stack.
B: You can afford to call a raise by the blinds who most likely wont respect your limp.

Could you describe your position and effective stack sizes of SB and BB?

This is a new table near the bubble, people probably dont want to test an early raise lightly unless they have a huge stack.

Jillychemung said:

You'll even see midstacks that highly value just cashing make a laydown with AA.

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Have you honestly ever seen this? Anyone who values min cashing that much shouldn't be playing in the tourny, I don't think. Min cash is basically your buy-in + 15% or something. There's no way, even on a satellite entry, that I'd ever consider this.

Jillychemung said:

You'll even see midstacks that highly value just cashing make a laydown with AA.

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Gerb said:

Have you honestly ever seen this? Anyone who values min cashing that much shouldn't be playing in the tourny, I don't think. Min cash is basically your buy-in + 15% or something. There's no way, even on a satellite entry, that I'd ever consider this.

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I have seen it happen twice, once at Turning Stone and once at Pocono Downs. Indeed they were both players that had won their entry via satellites. One had won a $16 satty to a bigger buy-in satty and then won a seat in a $1500 tourn. When the bubble hit he proudly proclaimed he wasn't playing another hand till he was ITM and very next hand he showed that he layed down AA to a raise

I'd never consider it either but we can never say never

So I opted to shove and was called by AA. Meh, I don't think I'm laying down the JJ when I get shoved on. It's too nitty for me and just let's big stacks bully you as Jilly points out.

I've been experimenting with open shoving the bubble a lot wider with a medium stack lately. I really like that it neutralizes the hold the bigs stacks have over you. That said I've stone cold bubble twice lately so I will let everyone know how my experiments go.

Thanks for the feedback everyone made good arguments for shoving and bet folding. Does anyone think the bet call off is better than the open shove? I sure do like the open shove fold equity against AQ type hands.

Unlucky man.

I like your thinking. On final tables as well, you can take away the ICM pressure big stacks can put on you by just open shoving. You will see yourself bubbling sometimes, but you will also see yourself picking up a lot more chips going into the more vital stages of a tournament.