$565 NLHE MTT: Is the hero not being aggressive enough?

I have been re-watching the past stream of 2018 wsop Collosus and there is a hand that has been bothering me.

This hand is taken from the Final Table. The players has been playing a straight-forward tight game. The hand is taken from rather early-ish coverage of the Final Table. 8 players remaining. Pay jump from 8th to 7th is not that exciting.

Wrutzel, the effective stack with just shy of 40 Big Blinds, I profile him as a tight aggressive, raises from the Hijack with 2.5 BB.

Liu--the guy who infamously celebrated too early--defends from the Big Blind with . His stack is more than double the stack of Wrutzel. I profile him as the type of player who doesn't diligently defends his Big Blind and at this hand he has a tell of putting chip to protect his hand and wearing sunglasses which means he likes his hand. I'm not sure if other player is aware of this tell.

Flop (Pot : 6.75 BB)



Check Check

Turn (Pot : 6.75 BB)



Liu bets 2.25 BB. Wrutzel calls. He has 35.5 BB left.

River (Pot : 11.25 BB)



Liu checks

I have two questions.

1. Is Liu's bet on the turn is way too small? I understand that it's a low board and sometimes the small bet does the job--but if we consider that Wrutzel's a tight aggressive--I don't think the bet makes senses because I don't see Wrutzel folding any of his range. If he has a Qx, Kx, Ax, he won't fold it and I think he is happy with the board condition (?) if he has a small pocket.
2. Does Liu left money on the table for checking the river? I feel like the entire board misses Wrutzel's range and a bet on the river may make senses to get Wrutzel to fold.

As a disclaimer, I have watched NONE of this event and can only speak from my own experience in live events, deep into tournaments, and on final tables in general (both live and online).

My perception of this spot from how you've described it, and regarding your questions.

1. No, his turn bet is NOT too small. This is a board texture where the preflop raiser, even being in middle position, will not connect hard very often at all. His best hands are overpairs, and those likely bet some of the time due to the flush draw on board. Similar goes for Jx. The opener's range when checking is very overcard heavy, and includes some pocket pairs 77-TT, along with slowplayed monsters of 66 and JJ, and maybe SOME of his NFD. I expect the non-NFD's (with less SDV than A high) to bet more often than not.

Meanwhile, Liu, even if he does not defend his BB as wide as he is "supposed to" will still have a plethora of Jx, and a decent number of suited 6x combos - I suspect at minimum something like 76, 65, 86, 64, A6, K6, Q6. I can't pretend to know his exact range but that's roughly what I'd expect based on your description. Also some of the offsuit connected combos so 65 and 76 off at minimum I would think.

His logical bluffs are also club combos, random stuff with backdoors, and random air. Now, that's a lot of combos, but he has a BIG nutted range advantage on this board so I like Liu's turn bet, and I like going small because I don't think he really NEEDS to go huge. I'd probably still go a BIT larger, but I would never exceed half pot here without a particular read or reason. I just don't think it's necessary.

2. All that being said though, yes he NEEDS to be betting river. The turn and river improve both 77 and 88 to boats for Wrutzel but there are a ton of other combos that Wrutzel can have on the river that will just snap fold here. You could argue that ATo actually has SOME showdown value, and I would agree, but I don't think it's enough to justify NOT bluffing. He can get all better A highs to fold, all the 22-55 of the world if they hang on after the turn, 99 and TT should CONSIDER folding (though probably ultimately SHOULD call), and depending on opponent this river could be a spot where we win like 35% at showdown but get to win like 80% of the time by betting. I mean that's HUGE.

Liu either needs to bet turn AND any favorable river for his range (which this offsuit 8 most certainly is), OR just x down turn and river. It's also relevant that he blocks T9 and unblocks any missed flush draws, so he even has like the perfect hand to do it with.