$500 NLHE HU Tourney Deep Stacked: Hand Analysis - WPT500 - Tanked

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g1nga1

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Hi,

For anyone who wants an input, please can you comment on the below situation..... I faced a tough spot and im keen to see what others think and learn.

Any more details available on request.

Thanks

Day 2 - Major Tournament - £1m Guarantee - 1890 - Entries - £550

Due to family commitments I started Day 1 in a Turbo Event on the same Day as Day 2, carried forward 48k, average chip count 120k, players remaining 480.

Doubled up early and played solid positional/stack size poker to roughly £300k and roughly 220 remaining. Blinds 4/8k, antes 1k.

Lost a 4 way pot after opening to 16k with 10's, raised round/calls, me to call for another £20k, missed flop.

Table playing tight, 8-9 players, my stack 2nd/3rd biggest. Moved at a few un-opened pots to get back to £280k, 199 players remaining.

Hand -

Action

Blinds 4/8k Antes £1k

8 players, 3 folds to me 4th to act, some tight players to left, Big stack yet to act on Button, smaller stacks been frequently folding to raises and/or continuation bets.

My Hand - KQo, Stack 280k

I Raise to £16k

Cut-Off Folds, Button (Big Stack 350k ish) raise to £41k. Blinds Fold, Pot 77k, 25k to call.

My thoughts are the Big Stack is likely to be playing mid range pair up, or suited/unsuited picture ace, as he had seen me both raise and win a showdown with a full house, but also represent on flop and win pots yet back away from others.

I am cautious to get involved with the Big Stack and with poor position, but feel the blind increase's and relative strength of my hand vs the 3/1 odds warrants a call.

Call - Stack down to 239k, Pot 102k.

Flop - 8h Kd 3c

I lead out for 41k, stack remaining 198k. Big Stack acts bemused by the bet, and again with a somewhat bemused look, calls. I am unsure as to whether the look is genuine or a play representing strength.

Turn - 10s

My bet on the flop was to show strength and hopefully take the pot, however I realised it was too light to achieve this. I was reluctant to massage the pot as I wanted an indication as to where I stood against the big stack and strength shown, despite hitting the King.

I check, hoping the 40k bet on the flop slowed down the action. The Big Stack again looks confused, and after a short while bets 60k. Pot up to 244k

After a short deliberation, I call. The 4/1 pot odds and the Top Pair are too tempting and I am reluctant to raise as I am concerned. The reads on my opponents hand I am getting is that, it is either a high pair, JJ or QQ or AQs that hopes I do not have a King, or an AK. I am not considering AA/KK as I have a King and I would of expected both to smooth call (or even raise) without the bemused look after the flop. AK, JJ, QQ seem the most probable fits to me so far.

At this point I have to assume my opponent puts me on a King probably suited up or down to a 10 max, trips or an A8/10 suited. I am also concerned that I have committed 50% of my stack, I dont know fully where I stand, and my stack size in relation to tournament survival.

However, whilst at the table I have not picked up that my opponent is a better than average player.

River - 5h

I check. My opponent after a short pause, announces All-In - rough count 200k.

.......

Internal nightmare on my part. I naively hoped for a check behind, given the strength shown by both, or would've settled for another bet of 60k/80k that I would of called. I know that I should not leave myself crippled, however that was my honest thought process and would of still placed me 6th/7th on the table stack wise.

My stack is now 138k. Pot is essentially 304k plus my 138k to win, being 442k. If I win, I go to 580k roughly double the average stack, if I lose I exit the tournament.

I now tank. Ive worked hard to get to this point and played solid poker throughout the day in the main, excect the first few hands of the Turbo :)

But ive somehow made enough mistakes in this particular hand to have already committed 50% of my stack and be faced with a life or death tournament decision.

I was left completely 50/50 as to what to do.

........

Are you able to critically analyse the above for me pointing out the errors you seen as im keen to see if they are where I see them after writing this.

Also can you pick out why I went into the tank, highlighting my decision and if it warranted a tank?

I will give you the details of what finally happened if you want afterwards.

Any help or time given would be appreciated.

Thanks
 
SaintNick1968

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Let me just preface my replay be saying that I have never played as high a buyin tourney as this, and I might not even be profitable at these heights. But I'll give it a go. 😜

I would say that the lead on the flop was probably unnecessary, as you have a much weaker range than your opponent, and if you check, he will surely bet with most of his random Ax which has missed the flop, and your play does look quite strong on such a dry board, which means that you might not get as much value from 99-QQ. I would just check call, I think that this makes your hand look more like an 8. You don't need to protect your hand against anything (exempt an ace I guess) and the whole thing seems unnecessary.

As played, I think that checking the turn has to be fine, with a very clear call. You keep some bluffs in and represent trips quite well. I wonder if you would have lead the flop if you had a weaker king? I don't necessarily think it looks like you have that... I think that you have to plan to fold if he goes all in on a blank on the river at this point though, seeing as he probably won't continue to bluff with his Axand I don't think he is likely to turn something like JJ or QQ into a bluff, and he has a lot of AK, sets, AA etc.

The river is gross but I think it has to be a fold, for the reasons I have stated. Hope I'm not completely off the mark here and this helps somewhat, as I say I am no pro... 😥😀
 
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g1nga1

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Hi,

Thanks for your reply, its my first ever post and interesting to someone else's view, so thank you for that!! I will leave it a few days to see if anyone else inputs before giving the answers.

I do think the flop bet was an error, in that, it needed to be higher for what I wanted to achieve at that moment and stage in the tournament. Equally the check call as you suggest, may of changed the running of the hand too.
 
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g1nga1

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As in made me look strong as opposed to weak (probing), that I inadvertently made myself look I guess.
 
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trent32la

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Preflop: Not really a fan of flatting KQ here. If you feel your opponent is capable of 3betting you light, I like 4bet jamming KQ here for 35bb. You have great blockers to jam here. If your opponent won't be 3betting you light here, then just fold. Postflop you're going to be playing out of position, and your opponent likely isn't going to be firing more than one street on Kxx/Qxx flops without a better hand.

You get a nice flop and you lead????? I'm very confused by your play here. Your opponent is going to be cbetting this flop close to 100% of the time, why would you ever lead and fold out all of the worse hands he will be cbetting the flop with. This is a great lead with a bluff, an awful lead with a value hand.

River is a gross decision, how you played the hand on prior streets is the reason you ended up in this spot. If you felt your opponent's preflop 3betting range was wide enough to bluff this runout, then you should have jammed pre.

Based on your opponents minuscule turn sizing and river bomb, I think this is a fold, however you're guessing at this point.
 
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trent32la

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This hand is a great reason why flatting preflop too much (especially OOP) can get you into a ton of trouble spots and hands where you will essentially be "guessing". Given the line you took, your opponent is going to be able to value bet/bluff you on this runout profitably 100% of the time. Your flat preflop and flop lead/turn flat cap your range to hands like small/mid pairs and KJ/KQ/QJ.

Regardless of what your opponent has here when taking his line, it's going to be +EV for him to shove this river on you.
 
SaintNick1968

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This hand is a great reason why flatting preflop too much (especially OOP) can get you into a ton of trouble spots and hands where you will essentially be "guessing". Given the line you took, your opponent is going to be able to value bet/bluff you on this runout profitably 100% of the time. Your flat preflop and flop lead/turn flat cap your range to hands like small/mid pairs and KJ/KQ/QJ.

Regardless of what your opponent has here when taking his line, it's going to be +EV for him to shove this river on you.

Personally I have to say I disagree with this. Are you really suggesting that you should have no calling range whatsoever OOP? That is exploitable in itself. Hands like KQ are absolutely fine to flat to a tiny three bet. You're getting a great price, but 4 betting seems unnecessary. It's not bad enough to four bet as a bluff, but it's not good enough to four bet for value (against most opponents). When he three bets you, you are fairly unlikely to be ahead at this point, but you are often against Ax or a pair with 45% and that's fine. I think the main problem with this hand was the lead on the turn. If OP had check called twice, then these problems should never have happened. I don't think it's the right message to say you should never flat a 3-bet OOP...
 
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trent32la

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Personally I have to say I disagree with this. Are you really suggesting that you should have no calling range whatsoever OOP? That is exploitable in itself. Hands like KQ are absolutely fine to flat to a tiny three bet. You're getting a great price, but 4 betting seems unnecessary. It's not bad enough to four bet as a bluff, but it's not good enough to four bet for value (against most opponents). When he three bets you, you are fairly unlikely to be ahead at this point, but you are often against Ax or a pair with 45% and that's fine. I think the main problem with this hand was the lead on the turn. If OP had check called twice, then these problems should never have happened. I don't think it's the right message to say you should never flat a 3-bet OOP...
No, I'm not saying we shouldn't have a flatting range OOP, however a hand like JTs or A5s is going to play better as a flat here against a 3bet OOP.

If we're 4betting here, it isn't necessarily a 4bet for value (we would be 4B jamming after all!), it's because we know our opponent will 3bet his buttons light against us and shoving is +cEV while we block a good part of the top of his range.

If he 3bets us with A2-AT or 22-88, why would we take a flop OOP against those hands if we can make them fold? Our equity against the weaker parts of villain's range no longer matters, it's an equation of...

Our opponent's 3bet button range
How many chips we are risking and how much dead money do we pick up when shoving KQ here and getting a fold
# of combos in villain's range that fold to a 4bet shove
# of combos in villain's range that call a 4bet shove
KQ's equity vs our opponent's 3B/calling range

Add all of those up and if it's a positive number, then 4bet shoving KQ here is +EV.

Fwiw, if we have 50bb+ I'm all for flatting here, however around the 25-40bb mark is when flatting 3bets are less justfiable and we go to flops with a low SPR playing OOP.
 
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SaintNick1968

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No, I'm not saying we shouldn't have a flatting range OOP, however a hand like JTs or A5s is going to play better as a flat here against a 3bet OOP.

If we're 4betting here, it isn't necessarily a 4bet for value (we would be 4B jamming after all!), it's because we know our opponent will 3bet his buttons light against us and shoving is +cEV while we block a good part of the top of his range.

If he 3bets us with A2-AT or 22-88, why would we take a flop OOP against those hands if we can make them fold? Our equity against the weaker parts of villain's range no longer matters, it's an equation of...

Our opponent's 3bet button range
How many chips we are risking and how much dead money do we pick up when shoving KQ here and getting a fold
# of combos in villain's range that fold to a 4bet shove
# of combos in villain's range that call a 4bet shove
KQ's equity vs our opponent's 3B/calling range

Add all of those up and if it's a positive number, then 4bet shoving KQ here is +EV.

Fwiw, if we have 50bb+ I'm all for flatting here, however around the 25-40bb mark is when flatting 3bets are less justfiable and we go to flops with a low SPR playing OOP.

To be fair that is a good point, and I didn't really think about how stack size effected the situation. Obviously if you have less BB it's going to lead to more tough situations, like you mentioned. I think the shove is just pretty borderline against his range (I don't think that all of A2-A8 can be included in his perceived 3-Betting range). However, I would still personally flat against a very small 3-Bet, but I do take your point about the stack size... :)
 
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g1nga1

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First off, can I say a Big Big thanks to both of you for your comments, this is the first time ive done this, but im keen to improve and really value your input's!!

Here's my thoughts on your comments and the answers:

I think my original call was border line given the situation at the time, based on the fact I didn't consider what I'd do post flop or what I wanted to gain. It was just a value call. However faced with the same situation, I would probably still call again or possibly fold. I couldn't Jam (I love jamming and I used to be a serial jammer, but my results have improved since i took to the books and learnt a bit more on it.) This situation wasn't a jam for me/my range at the time.

I kinda figure the flop bet was an error, but I don't think its as big an error as I first thought. Technically yes, situation.... im still not sure. Mixing things up isn't a bad thing and I know it will not make sense to all...... but I wanted to end the hand here or throw him off completely, to calm the betting down. I was out of position against a bigger stack who had 3 bet me, I wanted to show a bit of strength, but also find out where I was and because it looked like a small probe, i did neither, error!!

Do you see what I was trying to do? ...... basically avoid what I got myself into

So based on my style/the situation, do you both think the second call on the turn was actually the bigger error....... (if we park previous errors after each phase, as sure you agree you have too).

I cant remember if i considered jamming here, but it may of been an option, although I probably figured im only getting called by an equal or better hand and wanted either a check check river a bet to call off.

River - I took the full 5 minutes of a tank and a clock on this before folding.

Rightly or wrongly I had convinced myself of two things, either he had AK or my King was good, worst case split. I wanted to call because of the chips in the middle and the opportunity to get a super healthy stack, but i couldn't bring myself to do it. I have learnt even if you've made a mistake, sometimes you need to see it through...... but I had just too many chips left to make it not clear cut call and walk.

Eventually I folded with 10 seconds to go, only for my opponent to then throw over jacks.

I was mortified, more-so that i got myself in that spot. Im keen to learn, hence posting as I want to avoid the spot, rather than next time be faced with the same, call and then see the AK.

I went on to bust about 10 hands later.......... not through tilting, but shoved with and ran 99 into KK.
 
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g1nga1

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Both - while your there, do you believe it was a complete mess on my part or I was out played, or a bit of both?

And in his position, what do you make of the All-In? Fair/standard move, or very risky?

Thanks
 
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trent32la

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I feel like your mistakes in the hand allowed your opponent to put you in a very hard situation on this river. When you get this flop with KQ here, the last thing you want to do is "bet to try and take the pot down" knowing your opponent will be cbetting everything on this board. I'd assume you're making the same play with QJ since you're folding out the same hands regardless.

I would guess your opponent is a good thinking player, as this was a very, very good bluff on his part. He reps every single strong hand (AK/KK/AA/TT) while your range is completely capped to hands like KJ/KQ/QJ and mid pairs, which can't call a shove on this river.
 
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JPainTrainSicko

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Preflop raise is good. The call of the 3bet is exploitable and overall a losing play against good thinking opponents. Against weaker opponents I like the call and rule out folding, 4bet shoving is tough tho. That take the right type of bluffy opponent.

Post flop I do not like the lead at all. The flop is super dry and poses no danger. Making the check to the aggresor mandatory. I'd call most cbets and let the turn card decide how I'm going to proceed. With the turn bringing potential straight draws in and a stack to pot of 1.5-1 I'd be tempted to check shove. In this spot checking and seeing the 60k bet makes it a 1-1 stack to pot, very good spot to jam. Also calling and shoving rivers could be good, looks almost bluffy when non straight cards land.

As played tho getting to this river, your opponent is polarized in my opinion. They either have missed or weak hands they turned into a bluff or they have sets. Given more combos of misses and hands we beat however with our small stack size and our hand being face up as a one pair hand to villian we have to call here and hope we are right.
Calling the turn against an aggressive opponent hoping for a river check check show down is flawed thinking. And if you call thinking you're ahead the river card changes nothing.
Difficult spot in game for sure, afterwards we can break it down fairly well and get inside each player's thinking and come up with counters. Different beast in the heat of battle tho.

Thanks for sharing and good luck in the future.
 
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Seemed like a pretty good run out for that hand a call would not have been bad on the river, I would have definitely called but I am a bit loosely goosey and I love KQ. Playing OOP without a super premium hand is always tough.
In my view the decision was made pre-flop once you call there and you flop that good against a big stack on the button given the stack size you got to go with.
In hind site the donk bet on the flop actually would have helped you to get max value in a spot where you may not have otherwise. You convinced them you did not have a King with your line. This shows that sometimes mistakes can be very profitable.
 
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Thanks All..... its a really interesting and helpful reading your points.

In hindsight, I can see I created all the difficult spots for myself.

If it makes more sense to you all, given any of the following situations, I would of jammed/called on the river:

Re-entry still open, lower stakes friends game, already in the cash, or online.

Only my second major live tournament, so I need to view this as an invaluable lesson.

Thanks Again !!!
 
Jim Brown

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I really don't like donking the flop for value here. Or ever, really.

At this point there is 142k (182k+ if/when villain calls) in the pot and hero has just 219k left with TPGK on a dry board getting over.

I agree with trent32la not flatting 3bets this shallow. Can't really hope for a better flop than this and can't really fold either. Also prefer 4b I think BTN should have a wide range with lots of folds
 
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Jason Yocham

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If you are making min raises in that position, you make yourself look weak because most players know that ranges tighten the further from position. You raised as if you had AK, AA, KK, where you were just begging for action by min raising or you were scared to 2.5X+ raise because of your hole card weakness. However, you had KQ which is obviously not as strong. I would have 4 bet him and folded to an all-in because if you hit the K on the flop you still don't know if you are in the lead as was the case in your situation. By betting the K on the flop, you are repping the K and hoping that he doesn't have AK or AA or hit a set. I would have check called until he triple barreled and I would have to make a decision from there.
 
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g1nga1

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Thanks Jason.

Question - if I 4 bet back pre flop, im surely committed to the hand being 160 of my 280 stack.... unless he folds?

If we play it out using my example, if I had 4 bet, he has Jacks, his most legitimate moves have to be All In over the top or a call, un-probable fold unless he really didn't like it or was playing uber tight and sees me as a rock.

If he re pops AI, id have to call and hope would I not?

If he just flats, which has to be legitimate with say, 88 through to AK possibly? (hand ranking wise AK isn't always a shoving hand for everyone), or he has AK/QQ/KK/AA and wants me to shove on flop.

Surely im playing the guessing game again as I have to check or shove on the flop after that board, hoping for the best?

I know we can see the king hit for me, but with the play above, im basically committed or crippled am I not?

All thoughts welcome.......
 
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trent32la

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Thanks Jason.

Question - if I 4 bet back pre flop, im surely committed to the hand being 160 of my 280 stack.... unless he folds?

If we play it out using my example, if I had 4 bet, he has Jacks, his most legitimate moves have to be All In over the top or a call, un-probable fold unless he really didn't like it or was playing uber tight and sees me as a rock.

If he re pops AI, id have to call and hope would I not?

If he just flats, which has to be legitimate with say, 88 through to AK possibly? (hand ranking wise AK isn't always a shoving hand for everyone), or he has AK/QQ/KK/AA and wants me to shove on flop.

Surely im playing the guessing game again as I have to check or shove on the flop after that board, hoping for the best?

I know we can see the king hit for me, but with the play above, im basically committed or crippled am I not?

All thoughts welcome.......
We aren't deep enough to 4B/fold in this spot, so if we are 4betting it is a shove. I don't think your opponent is ever flatting a 4bet in this spot, however if he did, I'd think it would be with a hand like TT/JJ/QQ exclusively. If you did somehow 4bet 60% of your stack AND somehow got flatted, then you should just jam any flop. If you make a normal 4B and your opponent came over the top, I think we'd just have to fold?
 
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g1nga1

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Completely agree Trent, I feel sane again :) QQ, has to be a re-shove on his part if I re-raise pre.

It's been really interesting discussing, appreciate it guys!!

I think if it re-ran and i'd of jammed, he would of called and I would of been delighted by not only the shape I was in, but also the dream king on the flop haha :)

Flip it round and if I had the jacks, i'd of folded to the jam..... but I really don't think he would of. I know I wouldn't of a year ago and I guess we'd get mixed answers here as to whether to call with them or not, after the pre jam.
 
teepack

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I would give more consideration to folding to his re-raise. You were in for a minimal amount and still had more than 30 BBs. Hands like K-Q and Q-J always seem to get me in trouble.
 
mcgregor_415

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I never particiapted in such tournament and I am sure the pressure is far bigger. Maybe this cause you the insecurity for you.

You played the hand very well until the turn. Your flop raise could be a little bit higher, but it's ok with that. A continuation bet for around 60k would resolve your problems. You were the big favorite and as you correctly stated I also would put him on AA, AK or KQ. With 60 k raise on the turn you would probably scared him and it's possible that he maybe could fold. However you will control the game and would not show the weakness as you did with the check.

I am pretty sure that after his raise on the turn you probably started to count your stack and to ask yourself why you committed by such way.
As you mentioned you started to think about the time and efforts spent to reach such level instead of making an analyze of the possibilities. I am sure you would see that your chances aren't bad and in reality just AA and AK beats you, plus a low set, which is not so probable, because of the pre-flop play of your friend.
 
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