$.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: AJ River Call?

T

TheJet

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Aug 31, 2017
Total posts
7
Chips
0
Game ID: 1043248389 450/900 Manic Monday - $1,000 GTD, Table 11 (Hold'em)
Seat 9 is the button
Seat 1: Mikael84 (89272).
Seat 2: TurnTwo643 (36270).
Seat 3: Villian (85241).
Seat 4: Penguinnuts (17005).
Seat 5: Hero (28470).
Seat 6: Hyperdr1ve (29820).
Seat 7: wvublue (3780).
Seat 8: Artoras (30192).
Seat 9: dilip0412 (53656).
Player Mikael84 ante (90)
Player TurnTwo643 ante (90)
Player Villian ante (90)
Player Penguinnuts ante (90)
Player Hero ante (90)
Player Hyperdr1ve ante (90)
Player wvublue ante (90)
Player Artoras ante (90)
Player dilip0412 ante (90)
Player Mikael84 has small blind (450)
Player TurnTwo643 has big blind (900)
Player Mikael84 received a card.
Player Mikael84 received a card.
Player TurnTwo643 received a card.
Player TurnTwo643 received a card.
Player Villian received a card.
Player Villian received a card.
Player Penguinnuts received a card.
Player Penguinnuts received a card.
Player Hero received card: [Ac]
Player Hero received card: [Jc]
Player Hyperdr1ve received a card.
Player Hyperdr1ve received a card.
Player wvublue received a card.
Player wvublue received a card.
Player Artoras received a card.
Player Artoras received a card.
Player dilip0412 received a card.
Player dilip0412 received a card.
Player Villian calls (900)
Player Penguinnuts folds
Player Hero raises (2400)
Player Hyperdr1ve folds
Player wvublue folds
Player Artoras folds
Player dilip0412 is timed out.
Player dilip0412 folds
Player Mikael84 folds
Player TurnTwo643 folds
Player Villian calls (1500)
*** FLOP ***: [8c As 9h]
Player iznlet checks
Player Hero bets (3480)
Player Villian raises (6960)
Player Hero calls (3480)
*** TURN ***: [8c As 9h] [8s]
Player Villian checks
Player Hero checks
*** RIVER ***: [8c As 9h 8s] [Kh]
Player Villian bets (15300)
Player Hero folds
Uncalled bet (15300) returned to Villian
Player Villian mucks cards
------ Summary ------
Pot: 20880. Rake 0
Board: [8c As 9h 8s Kh]
Player Mikael84 does not show cards.Bets: 540. Collects: 0. Loses: 540.
Player TurnTwo643 does not show cards.Bets: 990. Collects: 0. Loses: 990.
*Player Villian mucks (does not show cards). Bets: 9450. Collects: 20880. Wins: 11430.
Player Penguinnuts does not show cards.Bets: 90. Collects: 0. Loses: 90.
Player Hero does not show cards.Bets: 9450. Collects: 0. Loses: 9450.
Player Hyperdr1ve does not show cards.Bets: 90. Collects: 0. Loses: 90.
Player wvublue does not show cards.Bets: 90. Collects: 0. Loses: 90.
Player Artoras does not show cards.Bets: 90. Collects: 0. Loses: 90.
Player dilip0412 does not show cards.Bets: 90. Collects: 0. Loses: 90.
Game ended at: 2017/10/30 19:41:52
 
A

AlexTheOwl

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 22, 2017
Total posts
860
Chips
0
What do we know about villain?

I guess we are far from the bubble at this point?

You are asked to call 15,300, and the pot after villain's river bet is 32,970, so 15300 / (32970+15300) = you need to win 32% of the time to call from a strict chip equity point of view.
The actual % that you need to win would be somewhat higher since this is a tournament.

If I don't know anything about the villain, I fold here.
It's not an especially good spot for him to try a bluff, and there would be no reason for villain to raise you on the flop and make a large bet on the turn without two pair.
 
Q

QA77

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Jan 30, 2017
Total posts
504
Awards
1
Chips
3
This is close. You don’t beat a lot of hands but do chop with some. I would lean towards a fold
 
P

PepeTurtle

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 1, 2017
Total posts
74
Chips
0
I think this spot is total 'read' dependent. In the dark I have no reason to believe this is not a bully bluff at least a chop pot since both check turn. An 8x hand that he is limping calling pre from his position with his stack size ??? Pocket 9'S ??? Some A8s/A9s ??? It looks bizarre folks.

It is completely read dependent.
 
liuouhgkres

liuouhgkres

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Dec 21, 2016
Total posts
920
Awards
2
KH
Chips
33
I think it should be easy fold, call with A9 and better, fold the rest. You don't beat any value bet. Also in this kind of tournaments players bluff rarely on the river, so it should be even easier fold.
 
E

Edson

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2016
Total posts
415
Awards
4
Chips
0
This is very close... first of all You should bet more pferlop. What about his action when flop came on the table? He have all A in his range, all from A2 to AT. This raise on flop could try to show You that he have ace and he want You to fold Pairs like TT od JJ, QQ which are in your range. He easly could have A3 or A8... so as I said. It was close. You should know more about his stats and what he doing before to make the best decision on the river
 
Top