$50 NLHE MTT: Lead turn vs. PFR

John A

John A

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/26/4

Poop... So std ?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $500(BB)
SB ($33748)
BB ($27192)
UTG ($10183)
HJ ($4415)
HERO ($9951)
BTN ($5218)

Dealt to Hero Q:heart: 9:heart:

UTG Folds, MP Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $1231 (Rem. Stack: 8902), SB Folds, HERO Calls $731 (Rem. Stack: 8670)

Flop ($3012) 5:spade: 7:club: 2:club:
HERO Checks, BTN Checks

Turn ($3012) 5:spade: 7:club: 2:club: 9:club:
HERO Bets $1100 (Rem. Stack: 7570), BTN $8902 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0), HERO $7570 (allin) (Rem. Stack: 0)

River ($20584) 5:spade: 7:club: 2:club: 9:club: J:heart:
 
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MrGreen13

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I prefer make call-down cheaper as posible on another hand if we are thinking on finish with all of the chips in the center of the table IMO is better option make check push because in this case we have fold equity.
 
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bumerangue

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The board is too wet, you have the top pair, but I guess that your objective in this case was to see the showdown as cheap as possible
 
No1eJoker

No1eJoker

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I would not call all-in on the turn, did you get win this hand??
 
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trent32la

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I'm trying to induce a shove with pair + draw or naked draw.

I'm just asking about the donk lead period.

You aren't going to induce a shove from much worse on a board where you have a decent range advantage. I'd be going 2k with my entire range here as our hand needs quite a bit of protection and would set up a river PSB.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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im checking this turn with my entire range. I just dont see anything we get value from. villains line here is going to be weighted mostly toward flushes. id rather check to induce a bluff than to bet to induce a shove. i dont think villain ever shoves here without strong equity. overpair or better and the worse pairs youre trying to get value from just make up such a small percentage of his PFR range.
 
GiGiCat

GiGiCat

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im checking this turn with my entire range. I just dont see anything we get value from. villains line here is going to be weighted mostly toward flushes. id rather check to induce a bluff than to bet to induce a shove. i dont think villain ever shoves here without strong equity. overpair or better and the worse pairs youre trying to get value from just make up such a small percentage of his PFR range.

what he said!
:)
 
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trent32la

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im checking this turn with my entire range. I just dont see anything we get value from. villains line here is going to be weighted mostly toward flushes. id rather check to induce a bluff than to bet to induce a shove. i dont think villain ever shoves here without strong equity. overpair or better and the worse pairs youre trying to get value from just make up such a small percentage of his PFR range.

How can V's range be weighted towards flushes after he checked the flop? The only real FD combos he has is 5xcc. Range-checking this turn would be bad, especially as we'll want to bluff with non-made hands that have equity. V is also likely to check this turn behind with most of his range and betting allows us to deny equity by not giving him a free card.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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How can V's range be weighted towards flushes after he checked the flop? The only real FD combos he has is 5xcc. Range-checking this turn would be bad, especially as we'll want to bluff with non-made hands that have equity. V is also likely to check this turn behind with most of his range and betting allows us to deny equity by not giving him a free card.
does he always cbet overcard flushdraws? what does he do with AJcc? what about KQcc? hes got a ton of equity against our range with these hands and he'd be throwing most of that equity away by pushing out our air when he cbets this flop. he could even check JTcc... I think its a mistake to assume he always plays flush draws aggressively OTF

he probably cbets all pairs though to get value out of our Ax, Kx overcards and flushdraws. he might bet JJ+ with no club but check JJ+ with one club for the blocker so I wouldnt totally discount these hands either

im okay with villain checking back turn and realizing his equity if we can safely let go of our hand on club rivers. but when he shoves how many bluffs does he have?
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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... something is wrong in this hand history. the stack sizes list villain as UTG and hero as CO, but the action appears that villain is BTN and hero is BB?

also i would not define this as a donk bet. to me, a donk bet is a bet out of position with the aggressor to act behind you. villain has given up his status as the aggressor when he checks back the flop, making a bet ott a much more viable option (more so in other situations)

theres also the option of 3bet jamming all in pre all though we would need to know villains fold to 3bet stat to evaluate that option.
 
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trent32la

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does he always cbet overcard flushdraws? what does he do with AJcc? what about KQcc? hes got a ton of equity against our range with these hands and he'd be throwing most of that equity away by pushing out our air when he cbets this flop. he could even check JTcc... I think its a mistake to assume he always plays flush draws aggressively OTF

he probably cbets all pairs though to get value out of our Ax, Kx overcards and flushdraws. he might bet JJ+ with no club but check JJ+ with one club for the blocker so I wouldnt totally discount these hands either

im okay with villain checking back turn and realizing his equity if we can safely let go of our hand on club rivers. but when he shoves how many bluffs does he have?
Outside of maybe some A/K high flush draws, I don't see V checking back too many here. Betting allows V to win the pot without a made hand and if V gets check-raised, V can comfortably shove or call off a shove. Even if V does check back K/A high flush draws, is he really going to jam here needing little protection on a board where the vast majority of our range is 1 pair hands and semi-bluffs? Whether an overpair has a club or not is almost irrelevant in this spot since there's only 2 clubs on the flop. When V jams he is very weighted towards overcard+FDs and possibly 9x and maybe a hand like 77. The latter part of your post sounds like you want to play defensively in these spots.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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what non flushdraw overcards does villain check on this flop though? AQ+ are the only non flushdraw overcards he should be checking here. why would he bluff shove QJo on the turn but not cbet it on the flop? villain should be checking AK and pair OTF because they are likely the best hand and have showdown value.

wouldnt villain be more likely to jam here with a flush if he thinks we're going to catch with 1 pair type hands?


villains range preflop is something like 22+ / A2s+ / A2-A5o / A9o+ / K9s+ / KJo+ / QTs+ / QJo / J9s+ / JTo / T8s+ / 98s / 87s / 76s

I think he cbets all 7x hands, pocket pairs 88+, 22, and 55, i think he cbets his weak air like JT, QJ, K9...

so when he checks all hands that dont get value from worse hands and dont get better hands to fold, leaving a range like: 33 / 44 / 66+ / AQ+ / A3cc+ / A2o / A5o / KQ+ / QTcc+/ J9cc+ / T8cc+ / 98cc

when we bet the turn, villain flats with most 1 pair hands, and shoves sets or better and shoves bluffs. he probably folds 33, 44, 66, A2 and maybe KQ leaving his shoving range with bluffs of AQ+ and maybe KQ, and shoving for value with 77, A3cc+, KQcc, QTcc+, J9cc+, T8cc+, 98cc.

so im counting roughly 19 combos that have 100% equity against us and roughly 15 combos that have 15% equity against us and 15 combos that have 7% equity against us. meaning villains range has 45% equity and we have 55% equity here when villain shoves.

maybe im missing something but id rather keep those 36 combos in his range that we totally crush that he would fold to our turn bet because he is likely to turn them into a bluff on the river.


as a note, im doing this on my phone and dont have any range or equity tools so there may be some math mistakes or inconsistency between ranges and the combos arent exact counts.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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i think the key thing is that most of his bluffs are taken out of his range when he checks the flop. and we're inducing a shove with a hand thats at best a bluff catcher. why are we creating an all in situation by building the pot with a bluff catcher? what does he bluff shove on this turn that he doesnt bluff not all in on the river?

judging from the blind levels and from the fact that we're 5 handed im guessing there might be some bubble pressure as well.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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i think even assigning him a bluff shove range of AQ+ and maybe KQ like i did is probably being really really generous since the SPR is 1:1 by the time villain matches our turn bet and raises all in and has virtually no FE

if we just remove AQ from his range we go from 55% equity to 33% and if villain just never bluffs in this particular spot which is not unlikely, we go to 0% equity
 
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