$5 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: HU second pair on a scary board for the win ?

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razzor94

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/21/2.3

IPoker, $4.55 Buy-in (20,000/40,000 blinds, 5,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: 501,042 (12.5 bb)
Hero (SB): 1,438,958 (36 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T
spade4.gif
J
spade4.gif

Hero completes, BB raises to 80,000, Hero calls 40,000

Flop: (170,000) 3
diamond4.gif
J
diamond4.gif
A
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
BB bets 80,000, Hero calls 80,000

Turn: (330,000) 6
heart4.gif
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (330,000) 8
club4.gif
(2 players)
BB bets 336,042 and is all-in, Hero ?

Results: 330,000 pot
Final Board: 3
diamond4.gif
J
diamond4.gif
A
diamond4.gif
6
heart4.gif
8
club4.gif


Villain is clearly a bad player based on his sizing troughout the final table and HU. 4x stealing, pot betting paired flops and giving up on turn...
In this hand i like his line if did have the flush but he might do this with an ace as well. He also has more than enough bluffs here to justify a call but its so big i can certainly fold weaker part of my range.
I also felt if i fold i would still have the chip lead and clearly a post flop edge whether if i call and loose its going to be hard for me to make any kind of post flop cbet bluffs and semibluffs that wouldnt commit me to the pot.
Still i dont know if i did the right thing so i would to see what would you do?
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Is this headsup as in final two players in the toyrnament or is this just a new table and you happen to be the only two players on that table?
 
Navin Sarabjeet

Navin Sarabjeet

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First of all its a good fold unless you have a sick read on the villain.

This is MOI:
He minraises pre , because you limped, so he could be holding from a pocket pair to an Ax, Kx.
If he wanted to bluff pre he would've gone at least 3x the bb.
So i think he had one of those holdings. So Ad, Jd and 3d on the flop.
You check so he makes a continuation, but when you call that bet he starts thinking to himself: Why does he check/calls? Is he on a draw, a weak ace or does he have the jack?
So when the turn comes around with 6h you check and he checks behind to get a free river, here he is about 50% sure now that you don't have an ace. So you can have a flush draw or hold a jack or even a 3.
When the river comes blank and you check it he is for certain now that you missed your draw or you have a weak holding.
So he pushes all-in, but why?
!. He can have a very strong hand and wants to over-bet inducing a
bluff
2. He missed the draw himself and is now bluffing because he gives
you a weak holding.

So unless you have a very sick read on this person the wisest thing to do is just fold:).

I hope this helps at least a bit:)
 
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razzor94

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HU with such a small stack size i built limp ranges with my BTN limps and i would limp prob 80% to 90% of my hands pre.
So when i limp call i surely have Ax in my range.
Also i would surely check call all my hands on the flop including my TP sets,flushes,FDs. second pair etc.
Turn i might lead into some opponents with stronger part of my range if OOP but here i would just try to check and induce on the riv or check and go to SD depending on what i have.
So i certainly have all my hands that i had on the flop here on the river.
But this guy doesnt think that way.
Also when he min raises it doesnt mean anything. He could have a very wide range here.
When he pushes he is polarizing his range to a flush or a bluff.
If i had a diamond blocker in my hand i would probably call.
Eventually i did fold.
Tnx for the reply.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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It's definitely a tough spot. The more I think about it though, the more I like betting small (a little less than 1/3) for thin value on the turn. He will call with all 1 diamond combos. he will call with better hands too, but i think he calls with enough draws in his range that we maintain showdown value.

by betting the turn, he is much less likely to bet the river, allowing us to check back and complete the action and go to showdown.

if youre checking to induce a bluff but folding to all bluffs that doesnt make sense. yes this sizing is polarizing but with a spr of 1:1 he has to jam all his bluffs to get any fold equity.

as played I think folding the river is absolutely fine. I think factoring for ICM, he needs to be bluffing close to 50% of the time with total air to make this a profitable call.

I dont usually like "blocker bets" and dont get used to using them, but when the primary reason for betting is for value and if blocking him from betting river allowing us to realize our showdown equity happens to be a side effect of our value bet, then I really like it.

Edit: another effect of betting the turn is that it kills all his bluffs. it basically sends the message that youve got some equity on this board where checking back the turn seems really weak and can be percieved as a greenlight to bluff all rivers by aggressive players. it also really effects the SPR so that he doesnt have enough fold equity to bluff meaning if he does check raise us on the turn we can make an easy fold. seems counter intuitive that by killing his fold equity we can make more folds but we definitely represent a stronger range and he will put the brakes on with his weaker hands
 
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razzor94

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It's definitely a tough spot. The more I think about it though, the more I like betting small (a little less than 1/3) for thin value on the turn. He will call with all 1 diamond combos. he will call with better hands too, but i think he calls with enough draws in his range that we maintain showdown value.

by betting the turn, he is much less likely to bet the river, allowing us to check back and complete the action and go to showdown.

if youre checking to induce a bluff but folding to all bluffs that doesnt make sense. yes this sizing is polarizing but with a spr of 1:1 he has to jam all his bluffs to get any fold equity.

as played I think folding the river is absolutely fine. I think factoring for ICM, he needs to be bluffing close to 50% of the time with total air to make this a profitable call.

I dont usually like "blocker bets" and dont get used to using them, but when the primary reason for betting is for value and if blocking him from betting river allowing us to realize our showdown equity happens to be a side effect of our value bet, then I really like it.

Edit: another effect of betting the turn is that it kills all his bluffs. it basically sends the message that youve got some equity on this board where checking back the turn seems really weak and can be percieved as a greenlight to bluff all rivers by aggressive players. it also really effects the SPR so that he doesnt have enough fold equity to bluff meaning if he does check raise us on the turn we can make an easy fold. seems counter intuitive that by killing his fold equity we can make more folds but we definitely represent a stronger range and he will put the brakes on with his weaker hands

It makes sense to put a small bet on the turn. I didnt have that in my mind perhaps because the stacks are so shallow.
If I put a bet on the turn i am surely pot commited to any kind of action from his behalf on a non diamond river.
But I guess given his range and actions it kind of makes more sense than checking.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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think about it this way, what hands does he check raise us with on the turn?

He doesnt have enough fold equity to bluff. so he's never ever bluffing as a check raise, unless he is really really bad or... really really ridiculously good... chances are he's an average reg who's pretty good but not that good.

so we know he's not check raising as a bluff.

he check raises this turn with all flushes, and better pairs with diamond blockers.

if we bet 100k on the turn into a 330k pot, and he rips it in, we're getting roughly 2.5:1 meaning we need 40% equity to call anything here to be +cEV. we do not have 40% equity against any of the hands that he check raises us with. We maybe have like 10% against his check raising all-in range. we do however have close to 50% equity against his calling range

never trick yourself into thinking you are "pot committed" yes you can be pot committed when your equity against his range of all ins is too great to fold. but just because the effective SPR is smaller than 1:1 doesnt mean you're pot committed if you dont have enough equity to call against his range of all ins.

I hope that makes sense.

id also love to hear a second opinion from someone like trent32la or OSMB

definitely an interesting spot though, and I wouldnt expect most players to think of betting the turn. I probably wouldnt think of it either in the spot, but this is a hand i read before leaving for work and thought about this hand the whole drive in to work and decided i think betting the turn is the best line. as played is okay too, I agree with your fold as played.

EDIT: oh and i forgot, we probably even get a lot of folds right there on the turn. even some better one pair hands might fold
 
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mcgregor_415

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First,

Let start with your read. A guy, who is playing like that, probably will try to steal once again. His stack is 12BB, I think that if he has Ax he would make some bigger bet preflop, not just 2BB. Secondary, If he hit an A with such dangerous flop, he probably would like to clear the chance of getting another d and the pot bet is the most logical bet here. If not on the flop, then on the turn. Ad also is a chance for him to play like that, but I think that he would continue with the raises on the turn.
To flop a flush is a possibility, putting a trap with a check on the turn, but I don't think that he would play it like that.
My only consern is that he may have a J with better kicker. Q or K. Putting everything on the table and mainly based on your observation on the player's game, it's a call for me.
 
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razzor94

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think about it this way, what hands does he check raise us with on the turn?

He doesnt have enough fold equity to bluff. so he's never ever bluffing as a check raise, unless he is really really bad or... really really ridiculously good... chances are he's an average reg who's pretty good but not that good.

so we know he's not check raising as a bluff.

he check raises this turn with all flushes, and better pairs with diamond blockers.

if we bet 100k on the turn into a 330k pot, and he rips it in, we're getting roughly 2.5:1 meaning we need 40% equity to call anything here to be +cEV. we do not have 40% equity against any of the hands that he check raises us with. We maybe have like 10% against his check raising all-in range. we do however have close to 50% equity against his calling range

never trick yourself into thinking you are "pot committed" yes you can be pot committed when your equity against his range of all ins is too great to fold. but just because the effective SPR is smaller than 1:1 doesnt mean you're pot committed if you dont have enough equity to call against his range of all ins.

I hope that makes sense.

id also love to hear a second opinion from someone like trent32la or OSMB

definitely an interesting spot though, and I wouldnt expect most players to think of betting the turn. I probably wouldnt think of it either in the spot, but this is a hand i read before leaving for work and thought about this hand the whole drive in to work and decided i think betting the turn is the best line. as played is okay too, I agree with your fold as played.

EDIT: oh and i forgot, we probably even get a lot of folds right there on the turn. even some better one pair hands might fold

The pot is 330K on the turn with my 100K bet and his 336K shove its 776K and i only need 226K more to call to win 776K.
Thats 3.4 to 1 and we only need 23% equty if the hand plays that way.

Its true that we dont have any fold equity and if he knows that he should only call or shove with better and fold with worse. Cause we look so so nutted when we bet the turn.
Maybe i should go even smaller on the turn like 50K. Its a great risk/reward type of action, we protect our equtiy agains diamonds and overcards and we get a little worse price on a call.
Still even with a 50K bet i would only need 28% equity.
Checking back IP just seemed so tempting at the moment.
 
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razzor94

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First,

Let start with your read. A guy, who is playing like that, probably will try to steal once again. His stack is 12BB, I think that if he has Ax he would make some bigger bet preflop, not just 2BB. Secondary, If he hit an A with such dangerous flop, he probably would like to clear the chance of getting another d and the pot bet is the most logical bet here. If not on the flop, then on the turn. Ad also is a chance for him to play like that, but I think that he would continue with the raises on the turn.
To flop a flush is a possibility, putting a trap with a check on the turn, but I don't think that he would play it like that.
My only consern is that he may have a J with better kicker. Q or K. Putting everything on the table and mainly based on your observation on the player's game, it's a call for me.

Believe me all the things went trough my mind but for just one reason i folded and that is if i call and loose it would be hard for me to play future hands being the short stack.
I was certain i had an edge over this guy and i didnt want to cripple myself of that edge.
 
mbrenneman0

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youre right that it is 3.5 to 1 if he check raises us on the turn, but it is still a fold if that happens. I feel like if the turn bet is too small then he might just check raise us all in with his entire range because then it starts too look weak and we're still getting a bad price to call a jam.
 
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subsinind

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You played it all wrong and I would just fold it with the way played giving credit to Villain for atleast a 2 pair.

The way i would have played:
I would have raised pre and went all in flop if Villain was that bad and called me. Villain is not calling my raise pre if he has a Ace. He would be re-raising - considering him to be bad aggressive. If he does 4bet pre, I fold.
 
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razzor94

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You played it all wrong and I would just fold it with the way played giving credit to Villain for atleast a 2 pair.

The way i would have played:
I would have raised pre and went all in flop if Villain was that bad and called me. Villain is not calling my raise pre if he has a Ace. He would be re-raising - considering him to be bad aggressive. If he does 4bet pre, I fold.

First of all if i were to raise pre i would shove for 12BB cause i dont want to play a bloated pot with JT against an aggro fish.
Every cbet is committing me to the pot and would have to rely on the board to hit me. There is not much manoeuvrability post flop if he calls.
Also i expect villain to shove more than he should with 12BB and planing on raise and folding is probably the worst play.
If you red the posts above you would see that i limp almost 90% of my hands as a strategy HU with a such short stacks.
That strategy eventually payed off when he shoved K8o over my limp when I had AQo for the win.
 
mbrenneman0

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Great posts on this thread, all your points here make sense and are well spelled out. Thanks.

thanks, it definitely makes sense to me, but im still concerned there might be some flaw in my logic that im missing. and again, this definitely isnt a standard spot, and i dont think this line always applies.

as far as betting small, if we bet too small he might still check raise us with a lot of his bluffs, i think 85,000 is the absolute smallest i would go, but i think i would go something like 101,500 or 103,350 or so. that extra digit kind of has the psychological effect of making it seem much bigger than somthing like 95,650 even though really its only a difference of 6,000

if you do take that line of betting turn, you have to represent strength. to a thinking player, it looks like you are setting up to shove the river but actually, unknown to our opponent, we are checking back 100% of rivers, so all of his value hands check to us and his missed draws probably give up because he will think we cannot fold (which is also untrue but our opponent probably doesnt know that because we are representing a bigger hand then we have)

if you bet 50,000 it looks like you are not confident in your hand are just trying to get his air to fold.
 
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mbrenneman0

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First of all if i were to raise pre i would shove for 12BB cause i dont want to play a bloated pot with JT against an aggro fish.
Every cbet is committing me to the pot and would have to rely on the board to hit me. There is not much manoeuvrability post flop if he calls.
Also i expect villain to shove more than he should with 12BB and planing on raise and folding is probably the worst play.
If you red the posts above you would see that i limp almost 90% of my hands as a strategy HU with a such short stacks.
That strategy eventually payed off when he shoved K8o over my limp when I had AQo for the win.

I totally agree with all of this except for cbets always making you pot committed. most of the time yes, but if you have less equity against his range than the pot odds youre getting then you can still find a fold. I agree that there is not much maneuverability though. nice bink
 
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this is a hand i read before leaving for work and thought about this hand the whole drive in to work and decided i think betting the turn is the best line.

I bloody love this. How poker starts owning your life huh.

I'd play this hand the exact same way though. Shove pre against tougher opponents. Limping seems fine considering post-flop edge.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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I bloody love this. How poker starts owning your life huh.

I'd play this hand the exact same way though. Shove pre against tougher opponents. Limping seems fine considering post-flop edge.

haha absolutely :D its like chess but with cards and money

did you mean same way as hero or same way as i suggested?
 
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razzor94

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Great posts on this thread, all your points here make sense and are well spelled out. Thanks.

I agree. He can really get you thinking outside the box :)
 
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stokedog4

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MBrenneman0 has some excellent points in this thread.

For me, I'm raising pre, and folding to a 3b shove.

As played, In the moment, I probably play it the same as you razzor. Hopefully, the next time i'm in a similar spot, I can use this way of thinking and bet as a way to get to showdown or just win it right there on the turn.

I do like the fact that you believe you have an edge, a 3-1 chip lead, so playing it the way you did has some merit, because i'd say you'll probably get it aipf soon as a big favorite... hope you took it down m8.
 
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razzor94

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Absolute worst option. It's either shove or limp. Raise-folding 12 blinds deep (with antes!) is bleeding chips.

Somebody posted above a similar line and i answered the same.
Its just a general HU strategy to implement a limping range with effective stacks of 10-30BB.
 
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