Skilled or not?
We are 2 or 3 spots from itm. No specific notes on villain.
BTN: 47,905
SB: 25,660
BB: 28,370 (vpip26 pfr17)
UTG: 55,430
Hero (MP): 26,560
CO: 33,642
6 players post ante of 120, SB posts SB 600, BB posts BB 1,200
Pre Flop: (pot: 2,520) Hero has A
A
fold, Hero raises to 2,525, CO calls 2,525, fold, fold, BB calls 1,325
Flop: (8,895, 3 players) J
Q
K
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
Turn: (8,895, 3 players) 4
BB bets 3,600, Hero calls 3,600, fold
River: (16,095, 2 players) J
BB bets 22,125 and is all-in, Hero ?
Thank U 4 Posting.
Do you have notes on this villain? This is where a HUD without notes is of no help.
The data you want to be looking for is how does this villain bet in other situations?
Has the villain used situational bet sizing before? Ie squeezes.
Has the villain made bet sizing mistakes? Raising when short stacks were behind and then folding to their shoves?
Have you seen this villain make a play that you thought was skilled? Have they made other over bets in spots where you think it was wrong to do so?
We have to ask ourselves if villain is going for value why does villain expect us to call and not win? Does villain expect us to call with 1010 on the turn? Is villain skilled enough to think over bet make it look like a
bluff as 1010 never calling anyway? So villain is targeting AK AA KQ AQ for max value?
No raise on turn might mean no set from you so a value bet with a boat or trips or straight is a good idea but why so large? Villain bet the flush card and the flush missed why would villain think you would fold AA AK KQ to a smaller value size?
Has this villain missed value before? Have you noticed this villain using skilled bet sizing?
Do you or have others been hero calling too often?
Why when folds are more likely 2-3 to ITM, does this villain think you will call that range for that sizing?
Does this villain think at this level? Have you seen signs of advanced thinking from this villain?
So just for clarity this villain could have AdJd and be shoving with no idea what would call them just hoping you brain fart and throw away your ITM finish with 1 pair on that board.
Or it could be AdQd please god let them fold.
Hope this helps