€5 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: 99 UTG, best line to continue on flop/turn?

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doodydota

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Best line to continue on flop/turn?

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poker stars, $4.50 Buy-in (1,250/2,500 blinds, 250 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players

MP2: 89,440 (35.8 bb)
MP3: 109,675 (43.9 bb)
CO: 111,260 (44.5 bb)
BTN: 34,612 (13.8 bb)
SB: 54,250 (21.7 bb)
BB: 91,386 (36.6 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): 84,299 (33.7 bb)
UTG+2: 64,561 (25.8 bb)
MP1: 88,041 (35.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9:heart: 9:spade:
Hero raises to 5,550, 3 folds, MP3 calls 5,550, 4 folds

Flop: (17,100) 8:diamond: T:spade: J:spade: (2 players)

Hero ?



Here is my thoughts:

The standard play is to just to cbet on the flop. If the turn is not a K, A or spade then a check/raise seems best, because we still have lots of equity if behind and check/call sucks. Dourble barrel on the turn also sucks because the stack sizes are a bit awkward leaving us with 1/2 pot size bet on river if called. Also, a Dourble barrel will fold out hands that we beat (77 A8) that might sometimes bet turn for protection and initiative.

Another idea is to not cbet flop, but check raise instead. The idea is to get value from hand we crush that would have folded vs. cbet.

What is your play?

A.1) Cbet FLOP. Cbet TURN

A.2) Cbet FLOP. C/R TURN

B) C/R FLOP
 
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kozong

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C) im check calling cautiously both flop & turn
 
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JKKeys45

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I'm checking the flop, I'd only Cbet for sure without the straight draw.
 
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doodydota

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Hmm... check calling makes sense the more I think about it
 
MoryMorte

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Here is my thoughts:

The standard play is to just to cbet on the flop. If the turn is not a K, A or spade then a check/raise seems best, because we still have lots of equity if behind and check/call sucks. Dourble barrel on the turn also sucks because the stack sizes are a bit awkward leaving us with 1/2 pot size bet on river if called. Also, a Dourble barrel will fold out hands that we beat (77 A8) that might sometimes bet turn for protection and initiative.

Another idea is to not cbet flop, but check raise instead. The idea is to get value from hand we crush that would have folded vs. cbet.

What is your play?

A.1) Cbet FLOP. Cbet TURN

A.2) Cbet FLOP. C/R TURN

B) C/R FLOP[/QUOTE]

What I like to see is that what do you think villain has?
AJ, A10,... A2
1010 to 22
suited connectors are the hands that are possible unless he is loose or tight.
Do you have any read on villain?
 
PHX

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Check flop calling most bets, we can still bluff /extract value turn and river if necessary it is not a great flop for us and the range of hands we are supposed to have from our position.
If we cbet here we bloat the pot and give draws and made hands a chance to really put us in a tough spot.
From your analysis I get the feeling you think you ahead there a lot but looking at where the call came from, the flop hits his range more than yours.
 
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doodydota

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Thanks all for your comments.

Check flop calling most bets, we can still bluff /extract value turn and river if necessary it is not a great flop for us and the range of hands we are supposed to have from our position.
If we cbet here we bloat the pot and give draws and made hands a chance to really put us in a tough spot.
From your analysis I get the feeling you think you ahead there a lot but looking at where the call came from, the flop hits his range more than yours.

The problem with the passive line is it allows villain to extract maximum and with only 33bb and many re-suck-outs I think an agressive line presents a good risk vs reward scenario to try and bluff villain out of some hands that have good equity against us.

It's an interesting hand. I would 100% agree with you if stacks were bigger. I guess I'm exploring the opportunity to create an egde for myself without getting owned too much.
 
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doodydota

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What I like to see is that what do you think villain has?
AJ, A10,... A2
1010 to 22
suited connectors are the hands that are possible unless he is loose or tight.
Do you have any read on villain?

88+, ATs+ KQs, AKo, AQo, some random weight of suited connectors like JTs, QJs, I guess

Against AJ we still have 40%, AT is a candidate to bluff out, however and we have 65% against broadways that will own us on later streets.
 
MoryMorte

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88+, ATs+ KQs, AKo, AQo, some random weight of suited connectors like JTs, QJs, I guess



Against AJ we still have 40%, AT is a candidate to bluff out, however and we have 65% against broadways that will own us on later streets.



I think he can have baby pair too.
QQ+ will 3-bet preflop.
You are not ahead most of the time. If you are ahead, you are not ahead much(also if you are behind).
Your hand has showdown value. You either can check call to win it at showdown (less risk, less reward) or check-raise flop and reevaluate on turn.
 
rock0001

rock0001

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i would make a c bet and go all in or fold if villain makes a re raise. you have a strong hand because you already have a pair of nines and also an open ended straight draw and checking here would be a mistake because if villain also checks and then an ace or king come on the turn your hand is going to lose lots of value, so i think you should make a strong c bet on the flop, and if villain re raises then you should either go all in or fold the hand.
 
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