$5 NLHE MTT Bounty: Facing a river shove with two pair

Satiivas

Satiivas

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Please, if somebody could help me analyze the following hand.
Unfortunately I don't have any stats on the villains, as I tilted so badly I instaclosed everything and Jivaro doesn't save the hand replay automatically. The main villain was an active guy for sure. If I remember correctly, his VPIP was almost 50.

It was deep in the tourney, around 50 people left from 1800 or so.

pokerstars Hand, Tournament $2.50+$2.50+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (600/1200)
6-max Seat #3 is the button

Seat 1: VILLAIN 1 (52765 in chips, $5 bounty)
Seat 2: VILLAIN 2 (69252 in chips, $14.36 bounty)
Seat 3: VILLAIN 3 (94017 in chips, $28.73 bounty)
Seat 4: VILLAIN 4 (36300 in chips, $11.87 bounty)
Seat 5: HERO (36762 in chips, $14.37 bounty)
Seat 6: VILLAIN 5 (57858 in chips, $8.74 bounty)

VILLAIN 1: posts the ante 150
VILLAIN 2: posts the ante 150
VILLAIN 3: posts the ante 150
VILLAIN 4: posts the ante 150
HERO: posts the ante 150
VILLAIN 5: posts the ante 150
VILLAIN 4: posts small blind 600
HERO: posts big blind 1200

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO <font color='black'>K♣</font> <font color='red'>Q♥</font>

VILLAIN 5: raises 1200 to 2400
VILLAIN 1: folds
VILLAIN 2: calls 2400
VILLAIN 3: folds
VILLAIN 4: folds
HERO: calls 1200

*** FLOP *** <font color='red'>3♥</font> <font color='red'>Q♦</font></font> <font color='red'>4♥</font>

HERO: checks
VILLAIN 5: checks
VILLAIN 2: checks

*** TURN *** <font color='red'>3♥</font> <font color='red'>Q♦</font></font> <font color='red'>4♥</font> K♠

HERO: bets 3437
VILLAIN 5: calls 3437
VILLAIN 2: folds

*** RIVER *** <font color='red'>3♥</font> <font color='red'>Q♦</font></font> <font color='red'>4♥</font> K♠ <font color='black'>J♣</font>

HERO: bets 7943
VILLAIN 5: raises 43928 to 51871 and is all-in
HERO: calls 22832 and is all-in

*** SHOW DOWN ***
VILLAIN 5: shows A♠ 10♠ (a straight, Ten to Ace)
HERO: shows <font color='black'>K♣</font> <font color='red'>Q♥</font> (two pair, Kings and Queens)
VILLAIN 5 collected 77124 from pot
VILLAIN 5 wins $7.19 for eliminating HERO and their own bounty increases by $7.18 to $15.92
HERO finished the tournament in 88th place and received $11.31.
 
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subsinind

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Just a bad play all together.

I would have raised pre but its allright to call.

Flop: why would you check it. Now only AQ beats it and very unlikely villain had KK or better. AQ is also highly doubtful. Checking it also gives him chance for a flush chase. I would bet 15-20BB and take the pot right away. If he calls, I would put him on a chase for flush or set mining.

Turn: Top 2..... time to go all in and take the pot. betting 3BB is way too small for this kinda villain who has such high vpip.

River:...folding top 2 is difficult because its a suckout and you brought this here But when you bet 6BB and he raises ~40BB, you should give him credit for atleast a set.
 
Satiivas

Satiivas

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Just a bad play all together.

I would have raised pre but its allright to call.

Flop: why would you check it. Now only AQ beats it and very unlikely villain had KK or better. AQ is also highly doubtful. Checking it also gives him chance for a flush chase. I would bet 15-20BB and take the pot right away. If he calls, I would put him on a chase for flush or set mining.

Turn: Top 2..... time to go all in and take the pot. betting 3BB is way too small for this kinda villain who has such high vpip.

River:...folding top 2 is difficult because its a suckout and you brought this here But when you bet 6BB and he raises ~40BB, you should give him credit for atleast a set.

Thanks for your reply!

Pre: I definitely didn't want to raise-fold nor raise-call into an UTG raise and a cold call with KQo. Granted, that the vpip of the raiser was high, but it was still an UTG raise + the guy who called to worry about, although KQo is likely ahead of his range. So I thought I'd see a cheap flop with a hand that plays relatively well on the streets.

Flop: Given that I just called preflop, why would I want to suddenly donk lead? Isn't this the kind of spot you want to check pretty much all of your range? I'd probably fold out all worse hands, maybe would get 1 crying call from TT, JJ or worse queens, which are not many considering the raise came from UTG, and he would just continue with all the hands that beat me. I mean, I would start with a check with any set, any pair, any 2 pair, any draw and would maybe consider check-raising him with some hands. So I don't understand the logic in donk leading top pair.

Turn: Given that it checked through, I assume neither of the guys have much, at this point I'm betting to get value from underpairs, maybe KT, KJ type of hands that now have a pair. I didn't put the UTG guy on a flush draw, because I assumed he'd c-bet it on the flop, considering his active playstyle.
I seriously read the flop check as a weakness and I mean I was kind of correct, wasn't I, as I got a call from AT.

River: Now this is the actual spot for me. The funny thing is, that as soon as the J hit, a thought of him having AT crossed my mind, but somehow it seemed so unlikely. I was seriously considering checking, but considering his playstyle and the fact that he just had to fold to my bet on the river a few hands back, I was afraid I was going to miss value from so many worse hands that would call, such as Kx, AK, maybe even Qx etc. I thought beforehand what I'm going to do against a shove and I decided, that he would probably do it with worse 2 pairs, MAYBE even one pair hands as his playstyle was really weird at times. Maybe the biggest mistake I made was to choose such a small bet size, as it is really easy to convince yourself that he read your bet as a weakness and this induced the shove.

Anyway, again, thank you for your answer, not trying to argue with you, just explaining my thought process and looking forward to hearing yours!
 
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trent32la

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Just a bad play all together.

I would have raised pre but its allright to call.

Flop: why would you check it. Now only AQ beats it and very unlikely villain had KK or better. AQ is also highly doubtful. Checking it also gives him chance for a flush chase. I would bet 15-20BB and take the pot right away. If he calls, I would put him on a chase for flush or set mining.

Turn: Top 2..... time to go all in and take the pot. betting 3BB is way too small for this kinda villain who has such high vpip.

River:...folding top 2 is difficult because its a suckout and you brought this here But when you bet 6BB and he raises ~40BB, you should give him credit for atleast a set.
Lol'd hard at this analysis.

With 30bb, flatting KQ from the BB is fine. 3bet bluffing isn't the worst play as we have a great hand to 3B/fold with blockers to AQ/AK/QQ/KK and we can hit some nice top pairs if flat called.

On the flop, you're going to 2x pot lead here, wtf is that supposed to accomplish? By doing this we allow all better hands to get it in against us while a worse hand is never going to stack off. We also don't give either of our opponent's the opportunity to bluff at the pot with air.

You turn top 2 pair and once again, you want to 4x pot shove here, again, what is this supposed to accomplish? Betting 3bb is completely fine here. Both villain's ranges are weak and it's unlikely they have a flush draw as they'd have bet it on the flop. We want to use a 1/2 pot-2/3 pot sizing to get calls from worse or possibly even check hoping one of them bets.

River is a call in my opinion. Players at this level are very capable of shoving worse 2pr's here, we can rule out 33/44/KK as they bet the flop, 1 combination of QQ, and possibly AT but it's hard to give your opponent credit for calling the turn with AT.
 
Satiivas

Satiivas

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Lol'd hard at this analysis.

With 30bb, flatting KQ from the BB is fine. 3bet bluffing isn't the worst play as we have a great hand to 3B/fold with blockers to AQ/AK/QQ/KK and we can hit some nice top pairs if flat called.

On the flop, you're going to 2x pot lead here, wtf is that supposed to accomplish? By doing this we allow all better hands to get it in against us while a worse hand is never going to stack off. We also don't give either of our opponent's the opportunity to bluff at the pot with air.

You turn top 2 pair and once again, you want to 4x pot shove here, again, what is this supposed to accomplish? Betting 3bb is completely fine here. Both villain's ranges are weak and it's unlikely they have a flush draw as they'd have bet it on the flop. We want to use a 1/2 pot-2/3 pot sizing to get calls from worse or possibly even check hoping one of them bets.

River is a call in my opinion. Players at this level are very capable of shoving worse 2pr's here, we can rule out 33/44/KK as they bet the flop, 1 combination of QQ, and possibly AT but it's hard to give your opponent credit for calling the turn with AT.

Yes! I just replied to the previous answer and looking now, our thought process is basically identical.

Thank you for your answer!
 
mbrenneman0

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I prefer the 3bet with KQ, especially to isolate and take the aggressive edge out of position. I think the 3bet is higher variance though. I would call with 20bb to about 28bb, from 25 to 30 it really depends on the players whether i 3bet them or call them with KQo but with 30bb i dont mind putting some weight on the pot preflop. if you do 3bet this shallow you have to know when to put the brakes on and pot control which is something im working on personally.

as played, i think the idea is correct, but your sizing is too big. i prefer 1/3rd pot on turn and river. im not sure if my math is quite right, but it looks like you bet closer to 1/2 pot on both streets. if you had 3bet pre, then would bet 1/3rd on the flop and probably check call on turn and river.

the all in on the river is trouble for sure, could be a slowplayed set, he has to be bluffing 30% or more to call profitably here and i just really dont think he is showing up with a bluff very often here at all and ICM dictates a fold for sure. I think villain 5 is probably a bit on the passive side and when passive players go all in this deep, its usually pretty nutted.
 
Satiivas

Satiivas

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I prefer the 3bet with KQ, especially to isolate and take the aggressive edge out of position. I think the 3bet is higher variance though. I would call with 20bb to about 28bb, from 25 to 30 it really depends on the players whether i 3bet them or call them with KQo but with 30bb i dont mind putting some weight on the pot preflop. if you do 3bet this shallow you have to know when to put the brakes on and pot control which is something im working on personally.

as played, i think the idea is correct, but your sizing is too big. i prefer 1/3rd pot on turn and river. im not sure if my math is quite right, but it looks like you bet closer to 1/2 pot on both streets. if you had 3bet pre, then would bet 1/3rd on the flop and probably check call on turn and river.

the all in on the river is trouble for sure, could be a slowplayed set, he has to be bluffing 30% or more to call profitably here and i just really dont think he is showing up with a bluff very often here at all and ICM dictates a fold for sure. I think villain 5 is probably a bit on the passive side and when passive players go all in this deep, its usually pretty nutted.
Thank you for your answer!

How big would you make the 3-bet preflop considering your shallow stack and the fact that your opponent is not likely to fold?

Also, could you explain why you would go for a check-call on turn if you would 3-bet preflop? My instinct would be to barrel turn to get value from flushdraw/gutshot/weak one pair type of hands. And then river I'd probably check-call aswell, if played like this.

About the 30% bluffing, I agree with you that he probably is not bluffing that often in that spot, but as mentioned before, I thought he is going to shove and go for my bounty with worse hands, such as KJ, AK.

Cheers!
 
oriole

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Tough spot. I don't see him bluffing there and the only hand that you beat is KJ.
 
mbrenneman0

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Thank you for your answer!

How big would you make the 3-bet preflop considering your shallow stack and the fact that your opponent is not likely to fold?

Also, could you explain why you would go for a check-call on turn if you would 3-bet preflop? My instinct would be to barrel turn to get value from flushdraw/gutshot/weak one pair type of hands. And then river I'd probably check-call aswell, if played like this.

About the 30% bluffing, I agree with you that he probably is not bluffing that often in that spot, but as mentioned before, I thought he is going to shove and go for my bounty with worse hands, such as KJ, AK.

Cheers!


oh man, I was halfway through writing my response and accidentally misclicked on my keyboard and chrome broke.... Ill try to retype it as best as I can

So I would 3bet to about 7,700. the idea is to get headsup with a nice piece of overlay while we are pretty far ahead of their 3bet calling range. KQo is actually a pretty strong hand in a vacuum, but we like to 3bet it because it lacks the postflop playability that KQs has. it plays postflop much better headsup than it does 3 ways.

the reason I bet flop and check call turn and river is this:

if we 3bet pre and cbet 1/3rd pot on the flop then the pot is going to be pretty bloated, about 26,000 chips, and we only have 22,000 left in our stack. we dont have the stack to pot ratio at this point to bet without betting all-in, and if we bet all in, then we force his draws to fold, while checking makes him much more likely to semi-bluff all-in with his draws and we get value from his draws that way.

3betting pre is definitely a high variance line because it gets to be a pretty shallow SPR. I was playing with the numbers with this hand, and I think with this particular flop, we take it down with the cbet about 50% of the time against a 3bet calling range which you cant do if you flat out of position. but, on the flip side, we get it all in on the turn or river the other 50% of the time with 60% equity, which is definitely good IMO because we pick up a monster stack if we win, but a good risk of busting out too.

EDIT: also im really tired writing this, so i feel like theres some chance this makes no sense haha, ill have to reread this when i wake up
 
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John Bor

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hahahhahahahha I always see similar sutuation)))))))))
 
Gabinho12345

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I like your play on all streets and I think KQ is too strong to fold on the river.
 
Satiivas

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oh man, I was halfway through writing my response and accidentally misclicked on my keyboard and chrome broke.... Ill try to retype it as best as I can

So I would 3bet to about 7,700. the idea is to get headsup with a nice piece of overlay while we are pretty far ahead of their 3bet calling range. KQo is actually a pretty strong hand in a vacuum, but we like to 3bet it because it lacks the postflop playability that KQs has. it plays postflop much better headsup than it does 3 ways.

the reason I bet flop and check call turn and river is this:

if we 3bet pre and cbet 1/3rd pot on the flop then the pot is going to be pretty bloated, about 26,000 chips, and we only have 22,000 left in our stack. we dont have the stack to pot ratio at this point to bet without betting all-in, and if we bet all in, then we force his draws to fold, while checking makes him much more likely to semi-bluff all-in with his draws and we get value from his draws that way.

3betting pre is definitely a high variance line because it gets to be a pretty shallow SPR. I was playing with the numbers with this hand, and I think with this particular flop, we take it down with the cbet about 50% of the time against a 3bet calling range which you cant do if you flat out of position. but, on the flip side, we get it all in on the turn or river the other 50% of the time with 60% equity, which is definitely good IMO because we pick up a monster stack if we win, but a good risk of busting out too.

EDIT: also im really tired writing this, so i feel like theres some chance this makes no sense haha, ill have to reread this when i wake up

Makes perfect sense to me. Thank you for the in depth analysis and hope you had a good rest! :D
 
xkenjix

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i dont mind check on flop. ill bet 70% and check 30% to pot control and sneakiness

turn bet is fine, maybe a liittle more
river is just a cooler, maybe i could find a fold when he shoves that much
 
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Call

Two pair is a very strong holding, especially on non flush board. Yes, there are some hand like AT, T9s, JJ, 44, 33 that beat you, but villain is going to bet 44 and 33 on the flop and probably muck JJ on the turn when you bet into 2 people. So there are only AT and T9s possible.
You should probably fold some of your top pair and never fold 2 pairs as this will lead to over folding, Especially! in bounty tournaments!
GL!:cool:
 
Jacki Burkhart

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First of all, the format you posted is incredibly difficult to make sense of....I can't see which positions players are in unless i want to calculate it myself (I don't) I also can't tell how big the pot is on each street unless I want to calculate it myself (I don't). In the future, you're going to get more quality answers when the above information is clear. I almost didn't reply because of that and the only reason I'm replying at all is because the first reply is such a bad thought process that I feel I need to chime in. that's kind of a bitchy start to my reponse but....hey...take it or leave it! and its mother's day so...I do what i want! :) :)


Just a bad play all together.

I would have raised pre but its allright to call. I think flatting is better than 3betting in this spot due to stack size and favorable pot odds. Your hand is strong enough that you'll be bummed to get 3bet off your hand and miss the chance to see a flop. I'd consider 3betting with the bottom of my flatting range...hands like 46s because if I get 3bet and have to fold it's no big deal.

Flop: why would you check it. to induce bluffs from villain, lots of players cbet too much. when they whiff the flop you allow them to play perfectly by betting. by checking you keep their bluffs alive. Now only AQ beats it and very unlikely villain had KK or better. AQ is also highly doubtful. yeah, but if you blast the flop, the only hands that call you are likely the ones you just described. AQ and KK+. when you check you allow hands like KJ, TT etc to bet. Checking it also gives him chance for a flush chase. so you think that KK is unlikely, but you are worried about a flush draw? yes when you check he MIGHT have hearts and he MIGHT elect to check it back and he MIGHT make a flush for free. more likely he will Cbet and you'll gain value from worse hands. I would bet 15-20BB and take the pot right away. If he calls, I would put him on a chase for flush or set mining. so, you would donk bet 2x or 3x the size of the pot with top pair good kicker? and you think that the only hands that would call you would be flush draws or smaller pairs hoping to hit a set? the thought process here is so backwards. first off, donking is a terrible idea for the reasons I stated earlier, but if you do decide to donk it should be for no more than 2/3 pot. larger bets pretty much narrow villain's calling range down to overpairs and sets. do you want to make a bet that only gets called by overpairs and sets? or would you rather check/call a bet or check/raise a bet that is likely made of lots of hands that you beat?

Turn: Top 2..... time to go all in and take the pot. betting 3BB is way too small for this kinda villain who has such high vpip. I like hero's flop check and turn bet. he could even bet slightly bigger like maybe 4-5bb but anything between 3-5bb is fine. when designing bet sizes you must ask yourself 2 critical questions: am i bluffing or value betting? (do i want a fold or do I want a call?). then, which bet size best accomplishes this goal? so for instance if you're value betting on this board and hoping to get called by hands like 34 or QJ or KT then you want to pick a bet size that one of those hands can call. going all in....hmmmm....who do you think calls that bet? once again, overpairs and sets. going all in is terrible. betting 3-5bb gets called by a lot of Kx and Qx so that's a better bet that accomplishes your goals.

River:...folding top 2 is difficult because its a suckout and you brought this here But when you bet 6BB and he raises ~40BB, you should give him credit for atleast a set. I think that given the way the hand played out it's fine to go for another value bet on the river. maybe you'll get called by 1 pair or a worse 2 pair. however, once he raises such big overbets are rarely anything but the near nuts. you have to have particular reads with a lot of stats that prove your opponent is a maniac to consider making this call, and even then a maniac will show up with the goods a decent chunk of the time.

my responses to the above post are in red.

In summary, I would call preflop. I would check call flop and if the turn is safe I would plan to check raise jam the turn. However, since the turn was such a juicy card I would actually lead as you did because you'll get action from a lot of worse hands whilst charging any draws. river I would lead about 40% pot and then fold to this huge overbet.

I think you played it all fine except for the final decision on the river.
 
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Jacki Burkhart

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oh man, I was halfway through writing my response and accidentally misclicked on my keyboard and chrome broke.... Ill try to retype it as best as I can

So I would 3bet to about 7,700. the idea is to get headsup with a nice piece of overlay while we are pretty far ahead of their 3bet calling range. KQo is actually a pretty strong hand in a vacuum, but we like to 3bet it because it lacks the postflop playability that KQs has. it plays postflop much better headsup than it does 3 ways.

I really like everything about this thinking on the 3bet or not to 3bet question. The hero must have good discipline to fold when 4bet (which will generally be a jam) so you'll have raise/folded for about 1/3 of your stack. if you can stomach that it's ok. I agree you're in good shape vs his range when he just flats.

for me personally I want to be a little deeper before I consider 3betting in this spot. 3bet/folding 1/3 of my stack with a hand as strong as KQ seems like such a shame when instead we could have seen a cheap flop with a strong holding. but I don't mind your thought process at all.

REGARDING THE RIVER JAM: i wanted to add that we must consider KO factors here. yes, the deeper we go the less the KOs matter, but they still do matter. You have no KO equity and he does (he has you covered). for that reason this bet seems to me to be extra tilted towards the nuts or near nuts. he can only get your bounty if he beats you...he can only be confident in beating you if he has a very nuttish hand.

in a regular tourney I think his bet represents the near nuts something like 75-85% of the time. In a KO format I think his bet represents the near nuts about 85-95% of the time due to KO factors.
 
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subsinind

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I agree my thought process is backwards but when I run deep in a tourney and meet a villain with such stats, I would want to be overly aggressive and win any chips as possible and avoid suckouts. The only suckouts I allow are all in pre. This will eventually tilt the villain later when we meet again.
 
Satiivas

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First of all, the format you posted is incredibly difficult to make sense of....I can't see which positions players are in unless i want to calculate it myself (I don't) I also can't tell how big the pot is on each street unless I want to calculate it myself (I don't). In the future, you're going to get more quality answers when the above information is clear. I almost didn't reply because of that and the only reason I'm replying at all is because the first reply is such a bad thought process that I feel I need to chime in. that's kind of a bitchy start to my reponse but....hey...take it or leave it! and its mother's day so...I do what i want! :) :)




my responses to the above post are in red.

In summary, I would call preflop. I would check call flop and if the turn is safe I would plan to check raise jam the turn. However, since the turn was such a juicy card I would actually lead as you did because you'll get action from a lot of worse hands whilst charging any draws. river I would lead about 40% pot and then fold to this huge overbet.

I think you played it all fine except for the final decision on the river.

Yes, you are right about the bad format. Apologies! It was my first HH post ever and I noticed myself later, that it looks really bad. Using the BOOM! replayer since.

Thanks for the constructive criticism about the hand!
 
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