$5.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: Is this a fold?? ICM

Alucard

Alucard

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I'm the chip leader. The Final table. It's a turbo

payouts
1st - $250
2 - $160
3 - $112
4 - $81
5 - $60
6 - $40

Total chips in play - 18100000

So his shove range should be stronger. Should my calling range should be very nitty?
I remember Lex mentioning something similar in one of his streams.

partypoker - 0/0 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (MP): 64.91 BB
CO: 47.86 BB (VPIP: 46.67, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 15)
BTN: 24.7 BB (VPIP: 12.00, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 25)
SB: 42.33 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BB: 8.08 BB (VPIP: 37.04, PFR: 22.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
UTG: 13.24 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 9.30, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)

6 players post ante of 0 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.23 BB) Hero has Jd Jh
fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BTN raises to 24.57 BB and is all-in,
 
Gabinho12345

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I'm always calling there. I don't expect his shove range to be too stronger than usual and he probably expects you to open very wide as the chip leader.
 
K

kozong

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vs AQs+,AQo+ its a call because of the 56% equity

but if you think hes only doing this w/ QQ+ then its only 2bb, you can wait for better spot
 
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Sprockett

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I would never fold in this spot. In my experience people don`t 3 bet shove AA or KK with 25BB, very often. JJ is a very strong hand in 6 max, and I think you are crushing his range. I probably say this to mutch, but I don`t think ICM is imortant here. You are not playing for your tournement life, as you will have a decent stack left if you lose the race.

Sprockett
 
Bozovicdj

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Considering there are two more players with significantly lower stacks then your villain, there is no reason for him to shove with some wide range, especially against a chip leader who can realistically call with TT/JJ/AK. In this spot, My line of calling is QQ+, and JJ are going to fold. Unless there is some good read on your opponent.
 
Alucard

Alucard

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I would never fold in this spot. In my experience people don`t 3 bet shove AA or KK with 25BB, very often. JJ is a very strong hand in 6 max, and I think you are crushing his range. I probably say this to mutch, but I don`t think ICM is imortant here. You are not playing for your tournement life, as you will have a decent stack left if you lose the race.
Sprockett

we think way wayyy differently. There are two very short stacks in the table that could bust very easily before the V. ICM is of important to him. Not me. And no I'm not crushing his range.
What are the hands I'm way ahead of him? Ts maybe and that's it. That's also a very maybe. It's gonna be a flip vs AK & maybe AQ. All the other hands IMO he's shoving have me beat.

Considering there are two more players with significantly lower stacks then your villain, there is no reason for him to shove with some wide range, especially against a chip leader who can realistically call with TT/JJ/AK. In this spot, My line of calling is QQ+, and JJ are going to fold. Unless there is some good read on your opponent.


Agree with this. But not sure if it's result oriented or not.
 
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Sprockett

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we think way wayyy differently. There are two very short stacks in the table that could bust very easily before the V. ICM is of important to him. Not me. And no I'm not crushing his range.
What are the hands I'm way ahead of him? Ts maybe and that's it. That's also a very maybe. It's gonna be a flip vs AK & maybe AQ. All the other hands IMO he's shoving have me beat.

Thank you for pointing out your different view. The different opinions is what I like about CC. You seem very confident that we are not "crushing" his range. If you say soo I belive you (After all, you were playing against him, and have a way better "feel" of the situation).

I just have have a hh and have to take a general approach, and I still see it a bit different. Whats baffles me is his shove. My first thought was that he has a hand he is afraid to see a flop with. Most people 3bet small to 5-6 BB in position this late in turnys (no?). Im thinking more like 66-10 10, than overpair. I would not be surprised to see A9+ or Q K kinda hands either, unless you been playing very tight? When I bust its usually for beeing to aggressive, so people tend to shove light against me.


Another thing I was thinking about was the icm factor. Is villain or the average player thinking about icm in this spot? If you have reason to belive he is, its an important factor. Generally speaking I dont think many people do.


I really like this thread, but we will probably never agree on whats "right" here (but that not a goal in itself either). Did villain have a overpair?


Just my humble opinion




Sprockett
 
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Jamuka7657

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When I think of my shove range in the villain's position JJ would be around the middle, or slightly worse. Personally I would call but no shame in fold here.
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

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I don't think a fold is wrong here although I might have trouble making it in the moment. I agree that 1010 is the only reasonable hand you are way ahead of. I'm guessing they had the overpair since you mentioned results oriented earlier.
 
A

AlexTheOwl

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It's close, but this is a fold for me.Opponent has been tight so far, and with the substantial pay jumps he should be raising with a narrow range.
The pot is small. You'll have a playable stack if you lose, but your chance of winning the tournament will be greatly reduced.
If you have been very active recently then that might change my thinking, since he may think you are bullying the table with weak holdings. The opponent's range might include some lower pairs in that case.
 
NHequalsFU

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Being the chip leader with not 1 but 2 shorties I can look for a better spot to be calling a mid stack's shove.

I would let this go and get back to blind stealing and wait for a better spot.


Can I ask a question as well?


If it was one of the shortstacks that shove we are snap calling correct? I am, just wanting to see if my thinking is right or wrong.:icon_thum
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

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Being the chip leader with not 1 but 2 shorties I can look for a better spot to be calling a mid stack's shove.

I would let this go and get back to blind stealing and wait for a better spot.


Can I ask a question as well?


If it was one of the shortstacks that shove we are snap calling correct? I am, just wanting to see if my thinking is right or wrong.:icon_thum
Yes we are snap calling them.
 
drbottlecap10

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No way I am laying that down. Especially as chip leader.
 
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raimundox44

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You were cheapleader, a coin flip would be unnecessary, the most prudent would be the same fold. Q2 with a board that has another Q could defeat you. Usually when we are deep stack we tried to pay in these situations, but therein lies the danger. Never donate chips to the short stack.
 
Ryan Laplante

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Definitely a call as we can generally remove AA and KK from their shoving range. Even if they can have those is a call.
 
Alucard

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Definitely a call as we can generally remove AA and KK from their shoving range. Even if they can have those is a call.

Didn't quite understand.
How are we removing AA/KK from their shove range?? Assuming they'd 3bet those hands with 25bigs??
 
WhereDidMyEVGo

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Didn't quite understand.
How are we removing AA/KK from their shove range?? Assuming they'd 3bet those hands with 25bigs??
I think he's saying he'd expect them to 3bet but not shove.
 
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enzoen

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I think it's a call ... many times from this position BO would make this move with AJs + or maybe with worse hands. I would not put it in AA or KK either ... since I think I would value it and not include everything ... maybe QQ but with little probability



its increase to 2BB makes the villain want to protect his hand and get him out of the way with an all in from BTN. I think I would pay. Anyway, I would be 3rd in chips if I lose my hand
 
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Edvin55555

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If he is regular player, his range should be AK+ for such shove. He might expect that you will call widely as a chipleader. So fold looks better in this spot.
 
A

AlexTheOwl

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Didn't quite understand.
How are we removing AA/KK from their shove range?? Assuming they'd 3bet those hands with 25bigs??

I think he's saying he'd expect them to 3bet but not shove.

In a $5.50 MTT, I would not remove AA/KK from the shoving range of an opponent who looks nitty so far, who is facing a raise from MP, and who can likely ladder up by folding.

It's more likely that AA and KK is his entire range than it is that AA and KK should be removed from his range.
 
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D

dpoole71

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I would never fold this also depends on his table image and yours if youve been opening alot of hands his shoving range would be pretty light even if you have been tight im still calling
 
rikoberto

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Hey Alucard..Very interesting spot.I tried to run it at ICMIZER to see results with the difference that i put Hero at Button's player shoes and you as the Villain..i did it vice versa,because in Icmizer(or at least in mine free version) it doesnt have option to raise/call a 3bet shove.Its push or fold option when you are the hero..So i create a custom MTT final table with the specific payments you give and i counted the chips that every player should have..(you posted big blinds on hand but u said that overall chips were 18,1 Millions so i did the counts how much a big blind is in chips)..Also i counted antes in this stage..Finally i put an opening range of MP/HJ that you could open without knowing if you open wider or tigher..So that range is around 19%(22+,A2s+,ATo+,K9s+,KJo+,Q9s+,QJo,J9s+)...
So,hoping i didnt do any huge mistake as i am not expert in using Icmizer,i post as image the results..
http://icmpoker.com/screenshot/VIIIJu/
So it seems villain here shoves QQ+,AKo+...Again to repeat that i customize alone the data so a potential mistake is possible..hope that i helped..gl :)
 
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Alucard

Alucard

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So it seems villain here shoves QQ+,AKo+...Again to repeat that i customize alone the data so a potential mistake is possible..hope that i helped..gl :)

Wow thanks man! Really helpful indeed. I have no clue how to use those softwares. Will look into it
 
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