$5.50 NLHE MTT: right bubble call?

i usually play cash games but got a free ticket, so i'm not that familiar with icm.

we were 11 players left, so 2 more to bust. the small stacks on the table (me included) were the lowest stacks.
from what i know i have to call here with such a strong hand because even if UTG blinds out, i'm not guaranteed to get to the final table and i can't let BTN allow to get ahead of me right? if it was against a big stack, i would fold if he wasn't extreme loose.

or should hero tighten up here and be extreme nitty instead?


Pacific Poker - 60000/120000 Ante 15000 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 5.8 BB
CO: 37.2 BB
BTN: 11.48 BB
Hero (SB): 11.47 BB
BB: 64.86 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has 8♥ 8♠

fold, fold, BTN raises to 11.36 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 10.85 BB and is all-in, fold


Hero busts...

It's a marginal situation. You would expect btn to play looser here but still, he also has to be considering icm and how close he is to the money too, so I would not be expecting anything better than a coin flip here for your eights.

Yes you probably can say you should call, but UTG will likely blind out and there is still some more room for poker with 11bb and you only losing 0.5bb here. Pick your blind defence spots very carefully especially this close to itm. Eights still lose a lot .. run some equity calculations and see.

forgot to say it was a big tourney, about 800 players 1000$ for first

puzzlefish said:

It's a marginal situation. You would expect btn to play looser here but still, he also has to be considering icm and how close he is to the money too, so I would not be expecting anything better than a coin flip here for your eights.

Yes you probably can say you should call, but UTG will likely blind out and there is still some more room for poker with 11bb and you only losing 0.5bb here. Pick your blind defence spots very carefully especially this close to itm. Eights still lose a lot .. run some equity calculations and see.

Click to expand...

so we already were itm and the payjump to 9th place wasn't that high.
won 62$ and 9th would get 75$. i was afraid to get too short so i have no fold equity and the huge stack was left to me. also BTN can put much pressure on me the smaller i get and the bigger he gets and isn't it better to try get to final table with a decent stack than just to get there with a few bb and finish 9th?

Well, if the difference in payments is small and there are no people whose out from the tournament can be expected, you should try to double your stack ...

Haze of Spade said:

so we already were itm and the payjump to 9th place wasn't that high.
won 62$ and 9th would get 75$. i was afraid to get too short so i have no fold equity and the huge stack was left to me. also BTN can put much pressure on me the smaller i get and the bigger he gets and isn't it better to try get to final table with a decent stack than just to get there with a few bb and finish 9th?

Click to expand...

Ok, so the difference in pay jumps won't be that great. You would need to decide then whether you want to coinflip here or wait a bit more. You would still have a substantial number of hands ahead of you before you blind down significantly. I know what you are saying and I agree that you *can* call here and probably sleep well afterwards regardless, but I think there are better spots to get it in and potentially triple up against the big stacks who will call almost anything.

I think, this is a pretty clear call. You need to chip up to gun for the top 3-5 places, where the real payjumps are, and so does BTN. He should be jamming really wide, so this is certainly not always a coinflip. His range should also contain 22-77 and A2-A8, which is a lot of hands, you are ahead off. There could even be some suited connectors in there as well like 65s-98s, which you also crush. Reaching the final table does not matter. The payjump from 10 to 9 is usually insignificant, so what matter is to reach the final table AND have a big stack. If this was the actual bubble in a smaller tournament, where 9 places paid, it would be a much closer decision.

thank you for the replies guys!

that makes me feel a lot better with my decision! true it wasn't a huge bubble, wasn't sure because i rarely got in that spot and even once folded in a similar spot and blinded away short after.

so he had A8o and hit the A

Some ROI is better than no ROI...I used to take this spot all the time but if there are 11 players left and I am not 8th/11 or worse - I am just nitting it up and folding here and avoiding the spot so I dont have to flip wish any 2 over cards and my opponent could be shoving ALOT of them. -Especially with a 5bb stack at the table. We just cannot afford to take the flip here and risk busting with another player at our table so short.

Personally I don't think our opponent should be shoving here either (unless they are also 8/11 or worse). Generally this close to the bubble everyone is playing super snug and the only hands that are going to call you are hands that have you beat! 11bb turning into 9bb is not the end of the world if we have to raise‐fold in this spot to preserve our tournament life with a 5bb stack at the table. Anyhow - our opponent should ONLY be shoving some very premium hands here just because of the bubble dynamics - so personally I think shoving A8o is a mistake here - one lots of folks are making and one I have made 10000x in the past.

The example is say your opponent and you are 5th and 6th out of the remaining 11 left - when he shoves A8 and you feel like you have to call - he is in terrible shape at 30% equity, risks busting and giving one of the shorties a chance for a money shop annnnd even though we are a big favorite in this instance - we still lose this runout a little less than 1/3 times - and all the other hands that are likely shoving (2 overs) we are taking 60/40 flips with.

The point is if we are in the middle of the field, we dont need to take these risks without very premium hands. I am talking about possibly folding JJ and only calling off QQ+ in these spots if it means our tournament life when we are virtually guaranteed to make the $$. If you have seen past posts of mine you will also here me talk about HAVING to take these kind of spots and risks to win a tournament and this is very true - at the CORRECT TIME! Timing is key, it is crucial and knowing to recognize this can be the difference between a consistent profitable month vs major swings and only a little profits here or there.

So in summary I would fold this spot unless I was a bottom 3 stack and could possibly be a bubble anyways. Tighten up your ranges bigtime here when you are in the middle of the field or higher and know the math if/when you are flipping. Dont make the same mistakes on the bubble that your opponents are making! Some ROI is better than 0 ROI! Hope this helps!!

Jon Poker said:

Generally this close to the bubble everyone is playing super snug

Click to expand...

OP has later clarified, that this was not on the actual bubble but near the final table. He was already in the money with a fairly insignificant payjump from 10. to 9. place.

In your situation, I would prefer to go all-in, remaining one on one with BB who has a large stack and not get involved in the fight with the player on the button. Being on the verge of survival, he would hardly have stood up against two without having anything substantial in his hands. You need to have something stronger than a pair of 88. On the contrary, BB can afford to take your all-in for luck, and in this case you have good chances to double. The player on the baton is really your headache, but it is not necessary to fight it in personal confrontation.

Yeah if you were on the money bubble I think this is close but I would guess it's still a call then. Given you're already itm and there's not a huge jump or anything definitely snapcall. You're probably 60-65% against his range if I had to guess? Pretty sure in his spot the optimal shove range includes 22-77, all aces, most kings, maybe a few bad suited queens, and some hands like 56s-89s that you beat pretty easily. Then of course it also has a ton of flip hands and the higher pairs.

I'm folding in this situation. I like to follow the first in vigor rule. If this hand was folded to me, I'm shoving 24/7, once a bet is made, I'm folding and let the other players knock each other out. I can climb the pay ladder that way.

fundiver199 said:

OP has later clarified, that this was not on the actual bubble but near the final table. He was already in the money with a fairly insignificant payjump from 10. to 9. place.

Click to expand...

If that's the case then I agree our hand is just too strong to fold - zdx we have to go with it. We got it in good, didnt hold and that's ok.

Jon Poker said:

If that's the case then I agree our hand is just too strong to fold - zdx we have to go with it. We got it in good, didnt hold and that's ok.

Click to expand...

Exactly. We are not going to find a better spot later. Usually people, who run this deep in a 5,5$ MTT, are at least decent players, so nobody is just going to donate their stack to us at this point. Jamming A8o from BTN with 10BB is a nobrainer, so is calling with 88 from SB, and after that it just is, what it is. This time Villain came out on top, and that is ok.