Pretty loose call pre IMO. Still its 6max so it isnt that bad. Against a good player, which you wont find that often in micro MTTs especially on a site like BetOnline, i would fold.
If you think about it you can pinpoint the value hands that he is representing.
He should be betting this flop like 90-95% as it nails his range. Maybe you have more 2 pair combos as you play all the ofsuit Ax in this spot as i see but his range is just so strongly weighted to Ax.
Still i dont think he thinks like that.
He should check AA here sometimes, A7s, weak Ax with the A of clubs(which you block), KK, QQ and some FDs if he wants to have some of them in his CC range but i still think he cbets all of them. 22-55 are player dependant because he might not even open them pre from UTG and does he even cbet them on the flop.
I think your sizings are very good. Just trying to get as much money in as possible. If he has air he is going to fold anyways no matter the size. Same on the river. Just targeting his weak TP and SP. Maybe he even levels himself to call 88-JJ.
Honestly i dont see him having many bluffs here. He is representing 2 pair or better. Usually when he is not representing many value combos i elect to call but in this spot there are just not that many bluffs. He would have to turn something like 88-JJ and 7x into a bluff for me to call this. Also since this is a micro MTT i think you can still find good spots here with your 25BBs
Reasonable point about preflop, although tbh against this sizing I'm defending pretty wide, and I don't consider calling all Ax to be that wide. He IS UTG though so while I still think this hand can remain, removing some of the stuff I defend against later opens of course makes sense, so thanks for point that out. I def need to be more careful about that.
I agree mostly with what you're saying about what his check back ranges more or less should be. Which I think begs the question, do we even get value on river? It's the micros so I think the answer is yet but I'm not sure if the river sizing should be smaller.
As played with that size though, when I got raised, I don't want to say it was a trivial fold, because I did tank, but probably my biggest leak is calling rivers too wide against people who aren't capable of
bluffing enough, and I just let this one go. Glad I wasn't just losing my mind for a second there.
have to be something on the flop there to make ace/bigger and flush/straight draws pay. maybe 1/3 pot? after the turn AK beats you and all the draws are still in, but you bet 2/3 sand when villian calls he's either got you beat at that point or is printing you money calling a bad draw.
the river bet is too big there, the only person who calls you has you beat and the person who raises you is putting you in an awful spot.
I disagree pretty strongly with this. You suggest leading out on the flop simply to charge aces and draws, yet most of those hands in villain's shoes will be betting the flop anyway, and we can check/raise. Also, leading just super strong value hands like this is a recipe for disaster. Almost everyone who leads flops into the PFR does so in a super unbalanced way, and while that's not horribad against weak fields, in a spot like this it's not going to be as effective as just having a robust check/raise range in my opinion.
Again on the turn you say "AK beats you now" without considering whether the villain will even have AK here often at all (I sincerely doubt it as it will probably be betting the flop 98% of the time).
I do think your point about the river has some merit though. When villain checks back flop, he tends to cap his range pretty heavily, but the turn and river can sometimes make him nutted hands that originated from that capped range. KK comes to mind. Flopped slowplays are also possible.
That being said, I do think some of his capped range will improve on turn enough to call us down, but maybe only at a smaller sizing like half pot. Then again this is the micros, and people just aren't that good at folding showdownable hands when they should.
Thanks guys for the responses!
He didn't show when I folded, but we'd been friendly in chat, and had some back and forths about what he thought I had. In the end it seemed he slowplayed 77 on the flop and only went for the raise on the river. No real reason to doubt him but even before reading chat I like the river fold a lot.
