$5.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $$5.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $$5+0.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: What would you do?

$5.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $$5.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $$5+0.50 NLHE MTT Rebuy: What would you do?

$3,000 GTD

Field: 23/742
Blinds: 5,000/10,000 1,000 Ante
Average Stack: 300,000

Cards dealt to Hero [As,Qs]

Starting Chips: 303,834
[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]Ending Chips: 5,956
[/FONT]
UTG Fold (419,330)
UTG+1 Fold (244,432)
UTG+2 Fold (114,836)
UTG+3 Fold (184,251)
Dealer [Hero] Raise 297,878 (303,834)
SB Fold (231,382)
BB is All-In for 297,878 (297,878)

Total Pot: 616,756

Hero shows AQs (45.86%)
BB shows JJ (53.77%)
[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
Board: 6h 3c Kh 10s 8h

Bb wins 616,756

The biggest reason why I shoved in this situation was, because at this point in the tournament it had pretty much been push or fold from anyone in the last few hands. The only other option I feel as though I could've done was raise 3x-5x BB, however I know for an almost guaranteed fact that the BB would've jammed on me given the stage of the tournament and his hand. Was the loss unpreventable? How would you of played this out?

Claws said:

$3,000 GTD

Field: 23/742
Blinds: 5,000/10,000 1,000 Ante
Average Stack: 300,000

Cards dealt to Hero [As,Qs]

Starting Chips: 303,834
[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]Ending Chips: 5,956
[/FONT]
UTG Fold (419,330)
UTG+1 Fold (244,432)
UTG+2 Fold (114,836)
UTG+3 Fold (184,251)
Dealer [Hero] Raise 297,878 (303,834)
SB Fold (231,382)
BB is All-In for 297,878 (297,878)

Total Pot: 616,756

Hero shows AQs (45.86%)
BB shows JJ (53.77%)
[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
Board: 6h 3c Kh 10s 8h

Bb wins 616,756

The biggest reason why I shoved in this situation was, because at this point in the tournament it had pretty much been push or fold from anyone in the last few hands. The only other option I feel as though I could've done was raise 3x-5x BB, however I know for an almost guaranteed fact that the BB would've jammed on me given the stage of the tournament and his hand. Was the loss unpreventable? How would you of played this out?

Click to expand...

Thank U 4 Posting.

It would seem that most of the time we are going to be called by a coin flip hand.
So it is shove win 1.75 BB or risk 30 BB on a coin flip?

So we have to ask this question of ourselves.

Are we more skilled than the villains?

If the answer is no than coin flips are great.

If the answer is yes than we should be trying to play post flop more.

30 BB does not have to be shove or fold time, if U have the skills. Yes JJ will still shove on you but so might AJoff A10s etc vs AJoff A10s etc may not call your shove. So we may widen our villains all in range when they have 30 BB as well, which is very good for us long term.

So getting your villains to think they might have fold equity and widening their all-in range may be very positive for your overall results.

Hope this helps

Dont get sucked into doing something, just because other players do it. With 30BB you are surely deep enough, that a standard open raise is a much more profitable line in the long run, not just with this hand but with your entire range. With this stack size I normally go to 2,5BB, but if there are fish in the blinds, who call to much, you could size up exploitatively for value.

With these two hands he would probably have jammed, and you would have called, so the outcome would have been the same. But when you went all in, he did not have JJ, he had any random hand, and your line was not best against his entire range. So the loss was unpreventable, but your line was still bad.

This deep in the tournament just because others are shoving doesnt mean you need to follow suit. Fish and inexperienced players open shove 25+ BB stacks - dont be one of those guys, your stack is large enough where the only likely hands that will call you are hands that beat you - JJ is a prime example. At least you were flipping but overall you took an unnecessary risk and it came back to haunt you - I've been that guy before and it's a horrible feeling.

Here is my advice, fwiw::

On a 30BB stack we definitely dont need to be shoving here, I would click it up 2 or 2.5bb (so 20k or 25k) and if the BB shoves for what is effectively my entire stack I can fold the AQ and move on only losing 2bb's. If you choose to call off the BB well that is up to you and the end result will be your own doing because you had a chance to fold for 2bb's.

The only time I advocate open shoving on your stack size is when you are on the button and it folds to you, and the SB and BB are both less than 12BB or so - then we jam, apply max fold equity and if we get called, we are usually in ok shape if not ahead of their hands.

This deep in an MTT when ICM starts playing a factor and with FT payouts around the corner plus me having 30 bigs - I think I just make the open raise and the painful fold when I get jammed on by a big stack and live to get it all in at a better point. We can definitely ladder up the payouts with 30 bigs instead of risking busting here. Stack preservation is key here - if they had a shorter stack - 180k or less - it's a snap call with the AQ and when we lose we still have enough to play short stacked poker. Point is if we open raise then when they shove for about 95% of our stack and they take a 2bb bet and turn it into a 30BB bet...they give us the opportunity to exploit them. How? Easy, we fold and get away from them.

Say we do open to 20k - they 3bet to 85k - are we ever folding AQs here? I highly doubt it...so we see the flop, if they check, we should check back - and if they cbet - well the flop missed us bigtime so we have to fold. The point here is by them 3 betting the hand instead of ripping it all in they get extra value from us - and they do not risk their tournament life with 30bb's either.

Anyhow, I am saying chances are if we open raise instead of open shove - we probably dont go broke this hand unless we make the mistake of calling off a 30bb 3bet shove. MTTs are tough to run super deep in, even tougher to make the FT. When we are this close to that and the payouts that come with it - we don't want to put our entire stack at risk unless we absolutely have to.

I hope this makes sense, I hope it helps. Good luck to you and your games buddy!

You need to know your villain's tendencies. Some players will shove any 2 in the blinds vs a late raise because 'you're messing with his blinds'. Others play a more sensible 3 betting range.

Perhaps the most advisable thing is to raise x3 here but as you describe it is most likely that the villain makes you a 3bet then you would have to make a 4bet with all your stack, I think that for the information you give about the player it was good to make shove and try to steal the BB the other movement that you might have considered given how you say it was playing is just call waiting to raise and call again to see the flop and that would be the only way to keep your stack healthy but you have AQs, I definitely do the same thing with the information I have

If you dont wanna play all in, you may open raise 10bb, its 1/3 of your stack, and fold vs push.

greatgame230 said:

Perhaps the most advisable thing is to raise x3 here

Click to expand...

x4 or x5 will be better.

If I were you I would make only bet, you really want to be call by blinds? What worse can call you? maybe he can risk with AJ, KQs (probably not), pairs from 88 and od course AQ,AK, you have 30BB not 20-25, and I think we don't want here flip or to be behind.
You risk 297,878 to win 22,000 in pot. You have quite normal stack, not big but you are able to play little more than push/fold.
Of course AQs, position and big fold equity protect your decision.
Let's think about bet. You are making standard bet to f.e. 21-22k.

A: If BB only call you can see flop cheaply, king is in your range, you will make standard c-bet and then you will know a lot of more about his range.

B: If BB make 3-bet you can only call and see flop cheaply too (you never fold AQs to 3-bet here of course) if you pass by the flop, you play check - fold and save money.

C: If BB make fast shove instead of 3-bet hmm it is interesting right? BB can have a lot of hands better than yours and "steal" you some outs like aces and queens right? Your fold here would be justified.

With 30 bb, you’re way too deep to shove. If you had 20 bb it might be a little closer but that just limits your range. You want to raise all you hands in that spot.

Yeah, open like 2.2x and since you expect a 3-bet jam, you should snap call in the event that occurs.

There's not too much to talk about in this situation. AQs vs JJ is pretty much a cooler in this scenario.

off 30bb effective stacks we should be raising and calling it off with AQ

yes, the result is the same but it's better for our range as a whole to play it this way.

also, if you have a lot of stats on the guy and his 3b % is like 3% you could even raise fold.

the problem with open jamming 30bb is it lets them play perfectly against us. by raisinng to something like 2.0-2.5bb we force them to consider a calling and 3b range and if they're doing a halfway decdent job at creating a calling and 3b range AQo rates to be doing very well against both.

I wouldn't open jam AQo on the button until I'm down to about 18-20bb effective