$5.50 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: 2K GTD Semibluff on flop, big mistake or play to win?

Ignition Casino - <> NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Currently at 15th out of 45 remaining players (top 63 pay, 470 original entries)
Very top heavy structure
Chip distribution is very top heavy with chip leader at over 500k chips

MP: 20.92 BB (VPIP: 21.88, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, hands: 33)
MP+1: 12.9 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.11, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 66)
MP+2: 10.18 BB
CO: 16.22 BB (VPIP: 46.15, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
Hero (BTN): 15.65 BB
SB: 5.02 BB (VPIP: 12.77, PFR: 14.63, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 47)
BB: 22 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
UTG: 9.81 BB (VPIP: 12.77, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
UTG+1: 23.68 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has 3♣ A♣

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (7.4 BB, 3 players) 9♣ 2♣ 2♠
BB checks, UTG+1 bets 2.94 BB, Hero raises to 13.55 BB, fold, UTG+1 calls 10.61 BB



My reasoning for this shove is that I have a lot of equity to draw to the NFD or hit an ace, and the pay jumps are very small at this level so I think its more profitable to try to hit the flush and build a stack to make it to the final table than it is to try to wait too long.

I think with the SPR there isnt much fold equity, but the flop texture does improve our fold equity some because its very hard to hit that flop

I suppose I could have shoved pre just as well, but i think A3s should be below my 3bet shoving range preflop with this stack size. if i was opening it would definitely be a shove..

and then of course theres the argument for folding pre, but who does that anyway

You know I'm gonna say it , fold pre.

You have 15bb facing an EP open. I can't think of a single hand we should be flatting with here. If your opponent is over-opening and is folding to 3bets often, then we should be shoving as suited aces will have okay equity against his calling range. Another problem we face when flatting here is what flops are good for us? Even if an ace flops, there is still a strong chance our opponent has one too and he won't be firing more than one bet on an Axx board without an ace.

As played, easy shove on the flop.

Only 6 hands on opponent. So unless you have seen him show down any of those hands I doubt you have any read.
PreFlop I think it's a shove or fold.

However, seeing how you played it pre, I think shoving is fine. You may get him to lay down better. If you opponent calls and loses, he'll have 8bbs... So most of the time he'll be ahead if he calls... hope he folds but if he does snap, you have 9 outs, maybe 12...

yeah i totally agree with you guys... probably should have folded pre... i think calling as a mental game leak, getting some cold cards for awhile and was really hoping to make something happen... well, i made something happen.

glad to hear you guys think the shove on the flop is okay. i think thats about as good of a flop as we can hope for.

if you guys looked at the spoiler would i be wrong to think his call was kind of terrible?

Generally you play the hand pretty well. The big question is the preflop call. It's kind of decision that with such flop you must play it all along. The cards on the flop give you great options and the all in is maybe the perfect play, considering the fact that UTG+1 guy put around 20% of his stack so he would not risk it if he was with something like AK to play until the end. I didn't open the spoiler, but with the call I would put him with high pair TT+.

It was a risk that you took and it did not go well for you ...

i would try to keep the pot small. call on flop. V would probably check call on turn and river.
Do not play AX unless it is suited and you have t check on BB or limp.