$5.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: Should you chase a gutshot given the odds???

Alucard

Alucard

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ITM. CO has a $6 bounty. Mp+2 has been pretty loose bluffing big pots but also getting lucky. Around 100 players left out of 1.8k whille I'm around 25th ish at the time.

pokerstars - 1250/2500 Ante 380 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 73.7 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 5)
SB: 29.73 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (BB): 54.19 BB
UTG: 118.82 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
UTG+1: 29.64 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP: 38.14 BB (VPIP: 71.43, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+1: 3.96 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+2: 102.6 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
CO: 26.77 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)

9 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.87 BB) Hero has 7d 8c
fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (9.87 BB, 4 players) As 4s 5d
Hero checks, MP checks, MP+2 bets 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB,
 
burton_boy

burton_boy

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I personally dont think I would chase. You are drawing to 4 cards, possibly 3 because of the flush possibilities.

With only 7 hands on them I can't be sure what they hold but an ace isn't out of the question so you pairing on the turn or river might just cost you more.

You could certainly get lucky and might take down a pretty big pot but more often than not I see this simply costing you a few extra BB.
 
E

Edvin55555

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Yes it's not a good idea to chase in this case. The only chance is to catch straight on turn but it's a pretty small chance.
 
pr0serbian

pr0serbian

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With big stack i could call 2BB on the flop with gutshot and fold tun if 6 doesnt hit.
 
marreuh

marreuh

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Yeah not a good idea. ICM is a bitch.
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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ITM. CO has a $6 bounty. Mp+2 has been pretty loose bluffing big pots but also getting lucky. Around 100 players left out of 1.8k whille I'm around 25th ish at the time.

PokerStars - 1250/2500 Ante 380 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 73.7 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
SB: 29.73 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (BB): 54.19 BB
UTG: 118.82 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
UTG+1: 29.64 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP: 38.14 BB (VPIP: 71.43, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+1: 3.96 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+2: 102.6 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
CO: 26.77 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)

9 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.87 BB) Hero has 7d 8c
fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (9.87 BB, 4 players) As 4s 5d
Hero checks, MP checks, MP+2 bets 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB,
Call me a nit but the only reason I'm folding here is that there is a good chance the 6s is no good as an out.
 
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