$5.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: $5.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: Too nit to fold or it's a call all day getting good price?

J

John Willow

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$5.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: $5.50 NLHE MTT Bounty: Too nit to fold or it's a call all day getting good price?

Nr. 152377566677: Tournament Nr. 1539716961, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (125/250) - 24.04.2016 18:18:38 EET [24.04.2016 11:18:38 ET]
Galds '1539716961 403' 9-max Dealer sits in place Nr. 9
Place NR. 1: dat2773 (8039 chips)
Place Nr. 2: lion blow (2080 chips)
Place Nr. 3: YoungSneep (6320 chips)
Place Nr. 4: thanfex05 (4053 chips)
Place Nr. 5: Quirky1988 (33051 chips)
Place Nr. 6: JohnWillow (23422 chips)
Place Nr. 7: michael23air (3077 chips)
Place Nr. 8: CashDroid (2163 chips)
Place Nr. 9: fcs_82 (5399 chips)

dat2773: small blind 125
lion blow: big bling 250
*** Player cards ***
JohnWillow cards [8d 8c]
YoungSneep: raise 300 to 550
thanfex05: fold
Quirky1988: call 550
JohnWillow: call 550
michael23air: fold
CashDroid: fold
fcs_82: raise 4819 to 5369 all-in
dat2773: fold
lion blow: fold
YoungSneep: fold
Quirky1988: fold
JohnWillow: call 4819
*** FLOP *** [5d 6s 5s]
*** TURN *** [5d 6s 5s] 7♦
*** RIVER *** [5d 6s 5s 7d] J♣
 
MrEpic94

MrEpic94

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Its probably a call. With stacks and KO bonus I think its just a cooler that when you lose.
 
MoeJurphy

MoeJurphy

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Calling a shove of 21BB and 1/4 of our stack with 88 I feel is a little loose, too often are we against either a bigger pocket pair or over cards which only give us a slight favorite and they still flop a pair 32% of the time.

Even if they are shoving 10% of their hands PF against 88 they still have a lot of equity.

12bb- this would be a fine call, with 21bb we fold and wait for a better spot. Unless the bounties are huge then take the flip and hold on.
 
J

John Willow

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Calling a shove of 21BB and 1/4 of our stack with 88 I feel is a little loose, too often are we against either a bigger pocket pair or over cards which only give us a slight favorite and they still flop a pair 32% of the time.

Even if they are shoving 10% of their hands PF against 88 they still have a lot of equity.

12bb- this would be a fine call, with 21bb we fold and wait for a better spot. Unless the bounties are huge then take the flip and hold on.

I runned the calculation after the session, and it was saying that it was a good call in long term.
 
MoeJurphy

MoeJurphy

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I runned the calculation after the session, and it was saying that it was a good call in long term.

I ran your hand through an equity calculator would need more info on the villain what % was his shoving range etc? When I gave him a 10% shoving range it was still a flip giving you a 1% edge.

Not saying it was the wrong call in this situation as I would need more info but seems like there are a lot better spots to call of 1/4 of your stack.
 
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WiZZiM

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if you "runned" it, then post results and state what software you are using, what range you gave villian etc. Calculators are only as good as the person who gives it the data.

it looks like a clear fold however with a big enough KO bounty and the fact that if we call and lose we're still in great shape i don't think either can really be a huge mistake.
 
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joe777

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Without any stat I would say it was a fold looking at the 20+bb shove unless it was less than 15 bb shove.
 
MediaBLITZ

MediaBLITZ

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Yeah, this is close to a coin flip. Stats on the villain would be a determining factor for me. How likely is he to risk his stack making a dead money grab. If not, there's a lot of higher pairs in his range, not to mention the over cards.

But the KO bonus can certainly push this over the edge.

So I guess I'm with Moe on this one.

Another ethereal factor for me is just the flow of the game up until this point. That is going to help me make these flip calls more than anything. In other words it's kind of like if it's been a dog fight get to where I'm at (nice stack), I'm likely to pass it up. On the flip side, if I've identified at least 3 or 4 players at the table I am confident I can pwn, then I'll take a shot, thinking I can get it back from these other guys should it not work out.
 
teepack

teepack

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It's a bounty. You've got plenty of chips. Call all day and don't worry about it.
 
blackdevil724

blackdevil724

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It is a fold..at best you are on flip...risking 1/4 off stack for one bounty?? You need to play this tournaments as normal, bounties will come...i play only bounty tournaments, and only latter you can do something like that for a big bounty against player you think is on tilt...
 
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Magillian91

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I'm not really on par with most of the analysis techniques or programs out there.. but I think this depends really on how close to the bubble you were at. With that difference in chip stack and the 3 other players with less stack at the table.. It doesn't seem like it was a desperation move so much as it was a premium that they were confident they could double up on. I think your beat in this case.. what did their hand end up being? High pocket pair?
 
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