$5.50 NLHE MTT: ACR 10K GTD - Near money bubble UTG+1 with AQs and 53bb

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NL Holdem $1000(BB)
UTG ($30954) [VPIP: 13.7% | PFR: 9.8% | AGG: 18.2% | 3-Bet: 5% | Hands: 102]
HERO ($53866) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 21.4% | 3-Bet: 5.7% | Hands: 14356]
MP ($19392) [VPIP: 51.9% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 15.8% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 27]
HJ ($11180) [VPIP: 5.4% | PFR: 5.4% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 37]
CO ($17680) [VPIP: 40% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 15.4% | 3-Bet: 10% | Hands: 21]
BTN ($33560) [VPIP: 15.6% | PFR: 8.9% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 5% | Hands: 45]
SB ($43164) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 11.1% | AGG: 23.8% | 3-Bet: 3.4% | Hands: 64]
BB ($44475) [VPIP: 35.5% | PFR: 25.8% | AGG: 15.4% | 3-Bet: 23.1% | Hands: 31]
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Dealt to Hero: A♦ Q♦
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UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $2300, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Calls $1700, BB Raises To $10000, HERO Calls $7700, SB Calls $7700
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Hero SPR on Flop: [1.07 effective]
Flop ($30800): 9♦ 4♦ 9♣
SB Checks, BB Bets $34375 (allin), HERO Raises To $43766 (allin), SB Folds


I think the only decsion here is should I just rejam preflop but with him having a 3bet % of 23% (even over a small sample size) I thought AQs would play better as a flat as if I jam he is likely folding a lot.

ICMzer says to rejam (30.0%) 22+,A2+,K7s+,KTo+,Q9s+,QTo+,J9s+,JTo,T8s+,98s

On the flop never folding with two overs and the nut flush draw even with the paired board.

Pre flop is either a call or fold, it will be very close vs how tight of a range most villains will have here.

Vs as loose of stats this villain has I would call preflop, but fold vs most.

Definitely stacking off on flop.

Well played!

I don't like 4bet jamming AQs for 50bb preflop. it's hard to get called by a worse hand so we are basically turning it into a bluff (with good blockers...but still....).

I'm nearly always calling pre and it's a little awkward with the SB still there since we don't close the action but it seems fairly safe SB won't 4bet.

obviously with a stack to pot ratio of 1:1 we have flopped too well to consider folding. it's worth noting that for standard ranges the BB is strong (since he could have flatted pre and closed action) so we might not have 2 overs to his real hand. I would guess most likely we have 12 outs twice. (1 live card to his pairs plus the diamonds) if he has AK or QQ or KK we have 11-12 outs depending on if he has a diamond or not. JJ would be the dream hand and we have 15 full outs. either way 11 outs twice is good enough. we only need 35% equity and vs a strong range of JJ+ and AK we have 45% equity