$5.5 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: What decision to a very big bet on the turn on deep stacks?

$5.5 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: What decision to a very big bet on the turn on deep stacks?

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/324C5oycB

Hello guys, it was SCOOP tournament for 5,5$. I was on very good position in tournament. It was bubble time, phase hand for hand in tournament and we have over 80bb in stack. I see here some strong pocket pair from UTG position in opponent's range JJ+ that play in this way, or sometimes 99 and TT. Bet on the flop from opponent seemed for me a little suspiciously. So in this situation I decided to play carefully this flushdraw. What do you do in this situation with flushdraw and two over cards on the flop and one the turn on over 80bb stack to his bets?

The flop C-bet is very standard, and so is check-calling with the nut flushdraw. When he overbet the turn, folding unimproved is fine. I agree with your own analysis, that his line is skewed towards a made hand "protecting" against draws, and you are obviously getting a terrible price. So just let him have his "protection" and win a small pot.

fundiver199 said:

The flop C-bet is very standard, and so is check-calling with the nut flushdraw. When he overbet the turn, folding unimproved is fine. I agree with your own analysis, that his line is skewed towards a made hand "protecting" against draws, and you are obviously getting a terrible price. So just let him have his "protection" and win a small pot.

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100% correct. If villan is protecting an overpair of sorts then they are losing TONS of value by betting you off of your draw. Easy fold for the price given here, sucks we do not get to realize our equity but villan gave us an easy decision. If our villan bets 2/3 pot on the turn, it gives us a bad price to continue with our nut flush draw - and that is protection enough. We WANT to give draws a bad price to continue so when they do its them making the mistake and not us. After all, flush draws (and all others) are unmade hands and even when they do get there once in a while we still win roughly 2/3s of the time vs them so there is no need to get out of line and become overly protective.


When our villan overbets here they are simply playing poorly. This is a spot where they are going to fold out all of the worse hands and only be getting called/raised by better - top and middle sets should NEVER be folding here, and I'm not sure if JJ+ could find folds on this turn either. So in a nutshell, when they bet 2x pot, they are forcing us to play perfect and thats just a big mistake on their part.

Anyhow, as played i love the flat preflop - our suited Broadway hands have lots of equity and we want to see flops with them - flop call is standard for sure - then easy fold on the turn because of poor sizing by our villan.

Pretty standard. Very likely he has an overpair. Maybe in this spot you could check-raise the flop. With being OOP villain is likely to be bluffing a bit more than usual so with a CR you are going to be getting called often but when you do make your hand it is likely you are going to get paid and you will put villain in a difficulty spot to carry on with any of his bluffs

jaworek1405 said:

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/324C5oycB

Hello guys, it was SCOOP tournament for 5,5$. I was on very good position in tournament. It was bubble time, phase hand for hand in tournament and we have over 80bb in stack. I see here some strong pocket pair from UTG position in opponent's range JJ+ that play in this way, or sometimes 99 and TT. Bet on the flop from opponent seemed for me a little suspiciously. So in this situation I decided to play carefully this flushdraw. What do you do in this situation with flushdraw and two over cards on the flop and one the turn on over 80bb stack to his bets?

Click to expand...

Thank you for posting

Watching replay one step at a time
Preflop
We have a medium strength hand vs Utg and Utg1 ranges. So we have to be prepared if we make top pair. We need to focus on the next highest card on flop as sets by both early players are what can crush us if we hit

Flop

We can definitely have sets here. So do our V fold over pairs to multiple barrels?

Ok we just call flop because we have a great plan to win this pot without hitting our flush
What is the plan?
When we are deep stacks we can use pressure on V that are not just calling stations. We want to be thinking about how best to represent a set here using our draw as backup

Turn
Is this a V bet fold or bet call? Is this over commitment to the pot common and if so does that mean that waiting to attack on the turn should not be our strategy in this player pool?

Does this player pool focus on blocking flush draws like this with over pairs?
Do they then go broke vs sets have you seen that error in this player pool?
Can this player fold?

Hope this helps